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Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

bbc.com

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Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#321

Post by lynndotpy »

tmountain wrote: post #200
leptons wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the fact that Democrats continue to be the opposition party, and failed to even imprison Trump over four years for the things he'd done I'd like to point out it was NOT the Democrats who failed us , it was Republicans in congress who failed us. I'm really not sure how you can suggest Democrats failed us, when they had 2 successful impeachments against trump, but it was Senate Republicans that voted to not remove him…

Thanks for this. It’s amazing how quickly people are trying to rewrite history.

I understand the feeling, but I'd appreciate if my off-the-cuff feelings about the capabilities of one political party was not articulated as a bad-faith intentional rewriting of the historical record.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#322

Post by bdangubic »

komali2 wrote: post #320
ngruhn wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They had a ceasefire which was broken by Hezbollah. Just like last time (2023). And the time before that (2006). And the time before that (2000). There is this one weird trick for lasting piece with Israel: stop being hostile.

> Unifil, the United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon that operates south of the Litani, says Israel has committed more than 10,000 air and ground violations during the ceasefire. According to the Lebanese health ministry, more than 330 people have been killed in Israeli attacks, including civilians. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdd560nvqqdo 27 November 2024, IDF shoots at Lebanese citizens https://www.firs…

When it comes to Israel the truth will always be spun. And if someone “in politics” dares (or slips), she/he will ultimately be made to retract the truth (see California Governor just yesterday/today)

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#323

Post by Supermancho »

gus_massa wrote: post #318
Supermancho wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a common HN convention to read: "this is an interpretion" > this is a quote Hopefully this clears things up.

Is it common in HN? I've seen it elsewhere, but I realy hate it. I prefer: fake quote> If I use triple quotes, enything is valid.

> Is it common in HN?

This is demonstrable via cntrl-F

I don't know what you are trying to say with the rest.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#324

Post by iAMkenough »

irishcoffee wrote: post #60
iAMkenough wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, you're right. Guess we shouldn't talk about what's happening now or do anything to address it.

That isn't very nice. OP never suggested we shouldn't talk about this topic, only that we all know this has been happening for a century. Legislation has been introduced to address this exact problem. Edit: Polymarkets should be hevialy regulated or made illegal. In fact, they were illegal, until someone found a loophole. Stop Insider Trading Act (House): Introduced by Rep. Bryan Steil, this bill aims to prohibit pur…

Sorry for not being nice and for reading between the lines.

Since Polymarket accepts crypto, there's likely foreign governments getting in on the grift too, which the proposed domestic regulations won't solve and likely won't be accepted by the domestic grifters.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#325

Post by manofmanysmiles »

metabagel wrote: post #194
inaros wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you run the numbers: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47504505 You will see, that anything else other than a ground invasion, is guaranteed to give Iran a war victory.

Iran can block the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely. They are demanding war reparations from the United States. Since Trump won't do that, the best case scenario seems to be that one or more third parties - Europe, India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, etc. - offer(s) Iran a package of financial incentives and security assurances which convince Iran to end the war. If only Muad'dib were here. He could find a way through.

What's the spice?

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#326

Post by carefree-bob »

komali2 wrote: post #316
carefree-bob wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are very jingoist terms focused more on domestic political reactions than anything happening on the ground. All conflicts, with the exception of genocidal or total war style conflicts - end with some kind of settlement, in which each side makes concessions, and then tries to sell it as a victory to their domestic audience. This will be no different, which is why people are already lining up to spin everything a…

> safe distance Iranian people are being killed, so no. Cynically if you mean Iranian leadership, they're also being killed, so no. American leadership and the Americans living in the seat of imperialism, sure.

Sure when Iran is being bombed, that is not a safe distance when it comes to receiving fire. But there are also US, Israeli, Kuwaitis, mariners being hit by Iranian missiles. The proportions are not the same, but this isn't a situation of only one side landing blows. Iran is also landing blows and putting up a fight.

But the point is that the missiles are being shot from a distance. There is no invasion. When Iran hit Dimona or Kuwait, it wasn't sending troops there, it was firing off long range drones and missiles. I never claimed the war has zero casualties, but I very much doubt the number of casualties will be even within an order of magnitude of a full scale ground invasion. It will be in the thousands, not hundreds of thousands.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#327

Post by hedora »

unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #62

1. By a show of hands, who was surprised that the cataclysmic warnings of the weekend subsided into talk of diplomacy on Monday? 2. Let’s hypothesize the US gov’t or allies did pre-release this info to traders as a policy tool, inviting them to sell oil profitably, shaping the later price action . In a practical sense they may have brought more speculators to the short side than otherwise would have been there; is th…

1. I was, but felt dumb, like Charlie Brown.

2. They definitely did. There's evidence from prediction markets too, and the timing is within 15 minutes of the press conference. It's beyond the pale because this was a quid pro quo action, where Trump toyed with people's lives so that his campaign donors could profit off his otherwise pointless war.

3. Not true. It is unusual for militaries to preannounce their battle plans to wall street speculators so that those speculators can make a quick buck.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#328

Post by testing22321 »

wellthisisgreat wrote: post #125
nostrademons wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's likely that they'll see justice in a chaotic way , ie not connected to the specific crime. Most likely outcome is that they make huge paper profits that are then absolutely worthless because the dollar collapses and the property rights that enforce the wealth they gained from these transactions disappear as the government is toppled. Another likely outcome is that they get in the habit of doing criminal…

> because the dollar collapses and the property rights that enforce the wealth they gained from these transactions disappear as the government is toppled. sorry but this is such a coping mechanism, or doomsday talking. Neither is dollar collapsing nor US government is collapsing, as there has been no evidence whatsoever of any of that even moving towards happening, at least on any meaningfully predictable timescale (…

It looks exceedingly likely Trump will try very hard to hold onto power past 2028. There’s a good chance whatever that looks like leads to some kind of civil unrest at minimum, civil war not off the table.

I’d say it’s 50/50 the US as it currently exists and exerts military and financial might around the world doesn’t by 2029

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#329

Post by testing22321 »

tmountain wrote: post #197
postflopclarity wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is the evidence of US government being "toppled" with layers and layers and layers of diverse (financial, legal, military, political, social, you name it) protections in place? I mean. Do you read the news? these protections are not working very well these days. the administration is getting away with _so much_ criminality in plain view.

Adjacent question, does the transformation of the U.S. government into a fascist regime quality as a collapse?

It will, because the value of the dollar, and the USs ability to exert control over the world will go down dramatically.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#330

Post by testing22321 »

wellthisisgreat wrote: post #130
Quarrelsome wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What's the path for that, really? Record and wait. Justice is slow but has the power of the nation state. Once the leadership of this current government is gone and nobody is around to protect the offenders then its time to swoop in with the records and the justice system. This is why its risky to join corrupt political movements led by old men, because they will use you to break the law, then die and you'll be on…

> Record and wait. Justice is slow but has the power of the nation state. this is pretty much how things will unfold in USA. Everything that has to happen will happen but very slowly. There is all the evidence supporting that.

You mean like all the people that were punished for trying to overthrow the government on Jan 6th?
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