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How will OpenAI compete?

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Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#321

Post by karmasimida »

vkazanov wrote: post #265
bg24 wrote: post #254

If Codex 6.0 is better than Opus 4.9, things will flip. While OpenAI has too many common enemies and trying to box them into a consumer company, they are equally enterprise focused. They need to absolutely do well with foundation model - everything else depends on that.

Well, codex is better than opus right now. I have both subscriptions, and use claude for grunt work + codex for reviews. Codex is comparable at code writing but does much better with tools, skills and ad hoc investigations, say, lauching emacs and inspecting internal emacs state on the go.

Same, I also have both subscriptions (100 Max and 200 Pro), and I am considering canceling MAX plan but would give it another month on watch.

The doomer sentiment is quite baffling to me, what trouble is OpenAI in? Definitely not after GPT 5.3. They have the model and they have the compute, people just don't realize it yet.

Might be I am in a twitter bubble, most people seem already team Codex

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#322

Post by sauercrowd »

mi_lk wrote: post #320
shubhamjain wrote: post #29

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

by this argument Google will win though. Identical interface with similar quality answers

I wish it would be, but it's not. Gemini feels more sluggish, it's relatively overloaded with animations compared to chatgpt. Like most Google products.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#323

Post by s08148692 »

shubhamjain wrote: post #29

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

As a counter anecdote, my wife stopped using it because it is quite terrible when you ask it about current events. She almost exclusively uses the Grok app now because it has the "best" internet search and current events results

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#324

Post by hwers »

shubhamjain wrote: post #29

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

I definitely think they’ve nailed the personality better than others too. Gemini and grok are always paragraphs and paragraphs of text to sift through for something that with openai is usually digested to much less

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#325

Post by epolanski »

> Every few weeks they leapfrog each other. There is variation within those capabilities, it’s possible to drop off the curve (Meta, for now) or fail to get onto it (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, for now), or remain six months behind the frontier (China), or rely heavily on other people’s work (China, again)

I really dislike this narrative where it's always China = bad, and US companies = good.

These labs all copy from each other. OpenAI and Anthropic have "distilled" each other models too and routinely poach key researchers from competitors. Not only that, there's evidence Sonnet 4.6 has heavily distilled Deepseek R1 too, in fact, if you ask Sonnet 4.6 in Chinese who it is, it will tell you it's a Deepseek model.

Chinese are the only ones publishing papers on their models non stop.

The whole AI race is entirely based on blatant copyright infringements and copying each other.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#326

Post by sauercrowd »

mgaunard wrote: post #312

As far as I can tell Google Gemini has the best overall integrations (Android, WearOS, Google Home) with the only voice recognition that actually works (Gemini Live). Anthropic Claude has the best integrations with coding; what would make sense is for them to focus on that segment. Other AI companies don't have anything really compelling. Meta has a model that's fully open-source, but then that's not particularly use…

The tide seems to be shifting on codex, but also lets not forget openai has a brand that none of the others have - it's _the_ AI.

Sure Google can go against that, but it's openai is definitely in a much better spot. It's pretty important for a consumer market.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#327

Post by MagicMoonlight »

shubhamjain wrote: post #29

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

Does she pay for it. No? Then she’s causing them a loss

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#328

Post by MagicMoonlight »

amelius wrote: post #299
sdrinf wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taking the opposite side of that bet, here is why: * even if an openweight model appears on huggingface today, exceeding SOTA, given my extensive experience with a wide variety of model sizes, I would find it highly surprising the "99% of use cases" could be expressed in * Meanwhile: I pulled claude to look into consumer GPU VRAM growth rates, median consumer VRAM went 1-2GB @ 2015 to ~8GB @ 2026, rougly doubles ever…

There will be companies producing ICs for cheap models, like Taalas or Axelera.ai today. These models will not be as good as the SOTA models, but because they are so fast, in a multi-agent approach with internet/database connectivity they can be as good as SOTA models, at least for the general public.

All they need to do is produce one for GPT-OSS and it’s over. That model is good enough for real uses.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#329

Post by mister_mort »

mercer wrote: post #277
oblio wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Being a first mover doesn't guarantee getting to the golden goose, remember MySpace. MySpace, ICQ, Altavista, Dropbox, Yahoo, BlackBerry, Xerox Alto, Altair 8800, CP/M, WordStar, VisiCalc, the list is very long.

Hotmail is a good example too. I remember it being pretty ubiquitous, at least for the 'personal email' crowd, and it seemed implausible that people would give up on what was often their main email 'location' for another offering without being able to transfer their often important and personal stuff. then gmail came along.

Did Hotmail offer email redirection at that time? I can't remember whether that sort of thing that would make it easy to switch away was offered.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#330

Post by Barbing »

s08148692 wrote: post #323
shubhamjain wrote: post #29

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

As a counter anecdote, my wife stopped using it because it is quite terrible when you ask it about current events. She almost exclusively uses the Grok app now because it has the "best" internet search and current events results

>the Grok app now because it has the "best" internet search

Why is this? Thanks to Twitter? More aggressive proxy use? Tuned to deliver to stay competitive? …

Was under the impression they didn’t have much in the way of secret sauce.

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