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Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

arstechnica.com

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Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#321

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

jandrese wrote: post #226
floatrock wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chinese also have battery manufacturing, whose rapidly falling cost-curve is what is missing to enable 24/7 solar. American empire ruled with the petrodollar. Chinese will rule with the solaryuan if we don't get our shit together.

You just slightly missed the crux of the issue here. The big "problem" with renewables like solar is that once you've installed enough for yourself you are done for like 30 years. There is no monthly sun fee you need to keep paying. There is no solardollar , because there's nothing that needs to be extracted, transported, and sold every single day. A lot of billionaires are in an existential crisis over a world where…

> Even the solar panel market is self defeating. Once there is enough installed power the demand will drop off sharply as the refresh cycle is too long.

If the average panel lifetime is 25 years, and it takes > 25 years to reach "full capacity" (whatever that might mean or whatever level that is at), then by definition there will be a continuous cycle of panel replacement taking place.

It's not as if we get all the PV installed in 12 months and then it lasts for 25 years ...

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#322

Post by testing22321 »

jandrese wrote: post #226
floatrock wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chinese also have battery manufacturing, whose rapidly falling cost-curve is what is missing to enable 24/7 solar. American empire ruled with the petrodollar. Chinese will rule with the solaryuan if we don't get our shit together.

You just slightly missed the crux of the issue here. The big "problem" with renewables like solar is that once you've installed enough for yourself you are done for like 30 years. There is no monthly sun fee you need to keep paying. There is no solardollar , because there's nothing that needs to be extracted, transported, and sold every single day. A lot of billionaires are in an existential crisis over a world where…

> That said, don't think I'm like the nuclear power guys of the 50s who claimed that electricity would be so abundant that we wouldn't even bother to meter it

Funny you would say that, Australia is about to have free power for all for a few hours each day. Yep, there really is that much

https://www.energy.gov.au/news/solar-sharer-offer-cut-electr...

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#323

Post by kllrnohj »

margalabargala wrote: post #314
kllrnohj wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't need to. The reality is companies are going to go for whatever the cheapest cost for electricity is, and solar w/ batteries has taken that lead. Capitalism happens to align with a renewable energy green transition, regardless of whatever the US political engine wants. At the end of the day most companies are going to choose profit over political ideology.

You're right but the problem is subsidies change that math. If the US gov subsidizes oil, then the economics of that work out even if solar wins in a free market.

That's true, but also requires that companies believe those subsidies will remain in place over ~20-30 years. Assuming US elections remain fair, that's not going to be the case. By contrast solar / wind subsidies are effective since the bulk of their cost is up-front, so you can generally rely on getting full value out of those subsidies.

Subsidies can certainly delay things at this point, but it's hard to see how it'd stop it.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#324

Post by sarchertech »

BurningFrog wrote: post #83
sarchertech wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no system that is immune to takeover from a demagogue. There's not even any hard evidence that any system is more resilient to it than the US is. It's all just tradeoffs. Germany had 7 major political parties in the run up to 1933. In fact if you look at the history of dictatorships that took over democracies, having 2 to 3 stable institutionalized parties is actually protective. The other thing that appears…

Germany only became a democracy under duress in 1919, and it never really settled into a stable democracy. Under immense pressure from an impressive list of disasters during the 1920s, it reverted back to authoritarianism in 1933. I don't think this teaches us much about the US

Germany was a constitutional monarchy with a written constitution, and a representative legislature 50 years before 1919. The Kaiser in many ways was more limited in power than the President of the United States.

Nearly every democracy to dictatorship is preceded by disasters.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#325

Post by fsckboy »

dzonga wrote: post #126

The trump administration by refusing to admit the superior metrics of solar, they're just burying their heads in sand. As admitting that solar is now a superior and cost effective means of energy means admitting that the US is no longer top dog. As empires are built on mastering a source of energy. the Portuguese | Dutch - mastered wind to power their ships. the British mastered coal to power Industrial Revolution. A…

>the Portuguese | Dutch - mastered wind to power their ships. the British mastered coal to power Industrial Revolution

the British were world-beating masters of sailing technology before they were masters of anything else, and that enabled them to leverage their advances in other areas (including mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the noonday sun) to become a mercantile behemoth.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#326

Post by recursive »

viewtransform wrote: post #206
dzonga wrote: post #126

The trump administration by refusing to admit the superior metrics of solar, they're just burying their heads in sand. As admitting that solar is now a superior and cost effective means of energy means admitting that the US is no longer top dog. As empires are built on mastering a source of energy. the Portuguese | Dutch - mastered wind to power their ships. the British mastered coal to power Industrial Revolution. A…

California power generation profile yesterday showing solar and battery proportion. https://engaging-data.com/california-electricity-generation/...

What does it mean to do battery-based power generation?

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#327

Post by underlipton »

citrin_ru wrote: post #257
jandrese wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just slightly missed the crux of the issue here. The big "problem" with renewables like solar is that once you've installed enough for yourself you are done for like 30 years. There is no monthly sun fee you need to keep paying. There is no solardollar , because there's nothing that needs to be extracted, transported, and sold every single day. A lot of billionaires are in an existential crisis over a world where…

> Even the solar panel market is self defeating. Once there is enough installed power the demand will drop off sharply as the refresh cycle is too long. It's not going to happen soon - solar is still just 8% of world energy production. Even if solar will cover 100% of consumption on a sunny day it still would make sense to buy more panels to have enough output on a cloudy day or in the morning/evening. It's likely pr…

It also assumes that there will never be demand for improved solar generation orthogonal to currently-prioritized metrics. As an example, a nice park near my house was clear-cut to install a solar farm a few years ago. I used to enjoy walks under the trees in that park, and seeing the animals that lived there. Perhaps as solar infrastructure becomes more stable and secure, concerns will turn towards the ecological ramifications of covering so much of the Earth's surface with ecological deserts, and there will be a desire to replace older generations of solar panels with ones that somehow can support or integrate more elegantly with nature. And then the next thing. And then the next thing.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#328

Post by dalyons »

kllrnohj wrote: post #309
margalabargala wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is California enough to drag the rest of the country with them, though?

It doesn't need to. The reality is companies are going to go for whatever the cheapest cost for electricity is, and solar w/ batteries has taken that lead. Capitalism happens to align with a renewable energy green transition, regardless of whatever the US political engine wants. At the end of the day most companies are going to choose profit over political ideology.

Sadly they might not be allowed to choose profit. ~25% of US counties have adopted regulation effectively blocking new solar and wind (1). Up from 15% a year ago!

Peoples stupidity and self sabotage truly knows no bounds.

1 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2026/02/2...

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#329

Post by _DeadFred_ »

yoyohello13 wrote: post #272
dylan604 wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The trump administration by refusing to admit the superior metrics of solar, they're just burying their heads in sand. I don't think I agree with this as it suggests they are doing it because they can't be bothered about it. Instead, they are doing it specifically because their (and/or their friend's) pockets are getting filled. To me, the latter is much more sinister.

It such obvious corruption. Trump ordered the pentagon to buy coal power specifically.

The crazy thing is coal mining is 40,000 jobs. I have never seen such a tiny industry given such preferential/oversized treatment.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES1021210001

Lyft is 10% of the size of big coal and Amazon is over 20x larger.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#330

Post by JumpCrisscross »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #207
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you can't disentangle government from the energy sector Nobody argued as much. My point is the net effect of social pressure on the energy transformation has been costly—financially and politically—for relatively little bang.

Because the opponents of it have the deepest pockets of literally anybody in the world. A whole class of parasites who have made their lives as highwaymen on the densest energy source (outside of uranium) -- that literally comes out of the ground -- have spent at least the last 20 years actively suppressing alternatives. In some places (see Alberta, Canada), they have literally outlawed renewable developments. In thi…

> Because the opponents of it have the deepest pockets of literally anybody in the world

Yet somehow these opponents have been ham fisted when it comes to opposing the projects which make commercial sense?

> In this context political advocacy, education, and subsidy remain absolutely imperative

Agree. But the bans were counterproductive.

> There is no "free market"

You're the only one in this thread who's brought up free markets.

> It's also actually also an emergency

In a sense. I'd underscore, again, that the breathless activism did approximately nothing–the actual gains came from China pursuing national-security interests and market forces driving the deployment and development of solar, wind and batteries.

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