Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling • Hacker News Board

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#321

Post by CTDOCodebases » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 11:06 AM UTC

bawolff wrote: post #279

elar_verole wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are underappreciating how "manipulation of poly market odds" can be destructive when you are betting on geopolitics. Here this means that every decision is now a conflict of interest, and that doing the unpredictable (politically, economically etc) has a financial incentive for potential insiders. Sounds pretty dangerous to me.

On the other hand we have had stock markets forever. Sure you couldn't directly bet on e.g. if trump would invade iran, but you could indirectly bet on it by betting on things like the price of oil. I dont think this is a new threat.

It's all fun and games until someone decides to bet $100K that someone they don't like won't die via assassination this year.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#322

Post by nkrisc » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 11:07 AM UTC

entropyneur wrote: post #285

thecupisblue wrote: post #280

Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…

Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.

The gambling industry itself is a net drain on society.

What is the societal benefit provided by it?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#323

Post by bradleyankrom » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 11:17 AM UTC

terminalshort wrote: post #316

cjs_ac wrote: post #275

> These markets are also manipulable. In 2012, one bettor on the now-defunct prediction market Intrade placed a series of huge wagers on Mitt Romney in the two weeks preceding the election, generating a betting line indicative of a tight race. The bettor did not seem motivated by financial gain, according to two researchers who examined the trades. “More plausibly, this trader could have been attempting to manipulate…

This is just implausible. Nobody with a brain is going to throw away 4 million on the speculative hope that a prediction market price is going to magically manipulate media coverage on the election.

That's a lot of money for an individual, but if the (dark) money originates from a donor or PAC, it's just another campaign expense.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#324

Post by nl » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 11:18 AM UTC

entropyneur wrote: post #285

thecupisblue wrote: post #280

Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…

Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.

> Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.

This isn't true.

  each 10 per cent increase in gambling expenditure in NSW results in more than

    4,500 additional assaults
    2,800 additional home break-ins
    1,300 additional break and enter (non-dwelling) offences
    1,400 additional motor vehicle thefts
    2,300 additional stealing from motor vehicle thefts
    3,800 additional fraud offences each year

https://www.connections.edu.au/news/strong-link-between-gamb...

> Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy

Some might argue that people - including gambling addicts, and those impacted by their addiction - might possibly be more important than one of many possible financial mechanisms for free enterprise.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#325

Post by RGamma » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC

louthy wrote: post #315

thelastgallon wrote: post #300

> s one viral post on X recently put it, “Got a buddy who is praying for world war 3 so he can win $390 on Polymarket.” This is how most people are these days! Or probably thats how human nature is!

It’s “these days”, because we’ve exited the period where the last world war was in living memory. Nobody who lived through a world war would be so crass. Unfortunately, that also means we’re likely due another one any time now.

Silver lining: We will answer Einstein's question about what weapons will fight WW3 in detail. /s

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#326

Post by nkzd » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 11:23 AM UTC

uyzstvqs wrote: post #167

Prediction markets are not considered gambling for the same reason that stock markets aren't. There's no fixed odds or random chance. A skilled analyst can make consistent returns. Unlike stock markets, prediction markets also provide valuable data on important world events, such as elections. It's wisdom of the crowd with financial incentive.

> A skilled analyst can make consistent returns.

So can a skilled coach make consistent returns in his sport. But sportsbetting is considered gambling.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#327

Post by louthy » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 11:40 AM UTC

RGamma wrote: post #325

louthy wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s “these days”, because we’ve exited the period where the last world war was in living memory. Nobody who lived through a world war would be so crass. Unfortunately, that also means we’re likely due another one any time now.

Silver lining: We will answer Einstein's question about what weapons will fight WW3 in detail. /s

Every mushroom cloud has a silver lining?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#328

Post by evandijk70 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC

jbstack wrote: post #319

thecupisblue wrote: post #280

Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…

As a matter of adopting sensible definitions, I think you need to draw the line somewhere between what is gambling and what is not. If the risk taken can, in principle, be shifted in your favour (i.e. to produce positive expectation) through application of skill, then it isn't gambling. For example, in my mind, betting on whether you will win a game of chess is not gambling. On the other hand, if you cannot influence…

I would say that gambling with skill component is still gambling. For example, in blackjack you can limit your losses by following a basic strategy, which is a 2x2 matrix with rows containing the value of your hand and columns containing the open dealer card.

If you can obtain an edge through a skill component (card counting in blackjack), some people wouldn't call this gambling anymore, but I would still call it gambling myself. Someone doing this for a living is a professional gambler.

What for me would be a sensible definition is that a bet/gamble has no other goals. Putting money in the bank/investing in a stock reallocates capital, which can be invested by someone. The fact that it is a risk-taking endeavor is merely a side effect. I would say the same goes for selling/buying insurance for your car.

So for me, the difference between betting and putting money in the bank/investing is that the primary goal is something different than the risk-taking activity.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#329

Post by floam » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 11:47 AM UTC

colinmorelli wrote: post #205

valkmit wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insider trading in stocks are prohibited but not for the reason most people think. It has nothing to do with someone having an unfair advantage in an informational sense, and everything to do with fiduciary responsibility. The CEO and executive team has fiduciary responsibility to act in the financial best interest of the shareholders. Your broker too. If you have insider info (Obtained legally) but no fiduciary resp…

This comment is not really correct 1. The misappropriation theory of insider trading covers anyone who trades on material non public information sourced through a trusted relationship regardless of any fiduciary duty to the company. For example, if I tell my personal attorney a non public fact about the company I work at, and they trade on that information, they absolutely can be found guilty of insider trading despi…

> The misappropriation theory of insider trading covers anyone who trades on material non public information sourced through a trusted relationship regardless of any fiduciary duty to the company. For example, if I tell my personal attorney a non public fact about the company I work at, and they trade on that information, they absolutely can be found guilty of insider trading despite having no relationship to the company at hand.

Huh. The lawyer example works because attorneys have a very specific, enforceable duty of confidentiality. Swap that relationship out and the conclusion may change. As written, the comment slides from "duty-based misuse of information" to "any private knowledge you shouldn’t have," which is not the same thing.

A lawyer (not my lawyer) gave me his off-the-cuff opinion on this scenario:

A pharmacologically-literate clinical trial participant for a novel new drug strongly suspects he did not receive the placebo/comparator drug, based on the subjective effects, plus their own pharmacology knowledge, experience with the placebo, and the research on the candidate drug.

However, this drug was not therapeutic for him, the side effects were onerous, or perhaps he believes the trial will be halted. Whatever their reasoning behind his inference, no details of others’ experiences were leaked to him, blinding was maintained; protocol was followed. He didn’t base this on a lab readout.

Based on his understanding of published research on the candidate drug, and projecting from his lived experience as lab rat, he believes this trial should disappoint shareholders. At the very least, shares may be priced too high.

Can the participant, based on this inference, invest $$$ shorting the pharma firm? This drug is considered the firm’s last best hope.

Their answer was yes, basically. He can trade on this non-public info.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#330

Post by moring » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 11:57 AM UTC

nl wrote: post #324

entropyneur wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.

> Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society. This isn't true. each 10 per cent increase in gambling expenditure in NSW results in more than 4,500 additional assaults 2,800 additional home break-ins 1,300 additional break and enter (non-dwelling) offences 1,400 additional motor vehicle thefts 2,300 additional stealing from motor vehicle thefts 3,800 additional fraud offences each year https…

Is that NSW = New South Wales? I'm asking because Wikipedia lists New South Wales as a population of only 8.5 million, and those crime numbers are insanely huge relative to that.