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How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

japantimes.co.jp

321–330 of 645 posts

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#321
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not real. Companies routinely lose money for years in pursuit of long term growth. But for some reason people love to use this as an explanation of everything wrong in our country.

The exception proves the norm. The only major example I can think of is Amazon dot com which famously reinvested all its profits into itself for well over a decade. The fact that investors didn't punish Amazon dot com was seen as befuddling in the press. > Companies routinely lose money for years in pursuit of long term growth. No, I don't think this is true at all because you used the word "routinely". I would claim…

There's not much that doesn't befuddle the press

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#322

A "Manhattan Project" would be building some shocking new technology that didn't previously exist. If they're cobbling together old parts, it sounds more like something you'd to to keep things running in case a conflict erupts: > The availability of parts from older ASML machines on secondary markets has allowed China to build a domestic prototype

A “manhattan project” can just mean a massive secret scientific war project? Seems apt.

I think the Manhattan Project is a poor analogy. Moonshot is more like it.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#323
Domestically, we often put it this way: since it wasn’t made by God, we can definitely make it ourselves. It’s only a matter of time — if not this year, then next year; if we can’t do it next year, we’ll just keep going. This is how we approach everything.

There is a small caveat, though. China was not actually that far behind in the semiconductor field in the past. The problem was that corruption and fraudulent projects were quite serious, which undermined the Chinese government’s confidence in these efforts. A few years ago, there was even a so-called “transparent computing” scam project that was awarded a national-level prize.

Corruption and fraud can slow China’s progress, but they will not affect the final outcome. This is because it is not only a government policy, but also a Chinese way of thinking. Nothing can interrupt this process.

In fact, aside from high-end chips, China already dominates the mid- and low-end chip segments.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#324

A "Manhattan Project" would be building some shocking new technology that didn't previously exist. If they're cobbling together old parts, it sounds more like something you'd to to keep things running in case a conflict erupts: > The availability of parts from older ASML machines on secondary markets has allowed China to build a domestic prototype

>A "Manhattan Project" would be building some shocking new technology that didn't previously exist. I think that both Germany and USSR were not in the least shocked ... just the USA had the resources to finish it.

Well, USSR did finish, just 4 years later.

Maybe it was because we had all those immigrants working on it (e.g. Albert Einstein, Hans Bethe, and John von Neumann)!

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A “manhattan project” can just mean a massive secret scientific war project? Seems apt.

They have high security, and obfuscating the premises is part of it, but is it really secret in any way ? I mean, we're knowing exactly what they're aiming for and could compare notes at the end of it. Is it war ? in a "everything is a war" political sense, perhaps, but not in any other sense. We're left with "massive project" for the analogy, that's kinda weak really.

>> is it a war?

people love to be reductionist... i wonder what aspects of a culture make everyone so black/white us/them ingroup/outgroup. Is it particular to the US, or like, is France the same way? Or Ghana? Or is it just human that everything is a war? Naqoyqattsi.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#326
post #277

If I were running this show, I would have a second concurrent project as a hedge and as a chance of leapfrogging the West: trying to make free electron laser lithography work. Free electron lasers have lots of (theoretical) advantages: no tin debris, better wavelength control, the ability to get even shorter wavelengths, higher power, higher efficiency, and it’s less Rube Goldberg-ish. Also the barrier to entry for b…

DARPA funded a bit in this space a while ago. (Example: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2011/01/darpa-maskless-nanowri... ) I'm not sure how you get over the bandwidth limitations, even with multi-beam.

This is a totally different technology.

A free electron laser (FEL) uses free electrons (electrons not attached to a nucleus) as a lasing medium to produce light. The light would shine through a mask and expose photoresist more or less just like the light from ASML’s tin plasma contraption, minus the tin plasma. FELs, in principle, can produce light over a very wide range of wavelengths, including EUV and even shorter.

That DARPA thing is a maskless electron beam lithography system: the photoresist is exposed by hitting it directly with electrons.

Electrons have lots of advantages: they have mass, so much less kinetic energy is needed to achieve short wavelengths. They have charge, so they can be accelerated electrically and they can be steered electrically or magnetically. And there are quite a few maskless designs, which saves the enormous expense of producing a mask. (And maskless lithography would let a factory make chips that are different in different wafers, which no one currently does. And you need a maskless technique to make masks in the first place.) There were direct-write electron-beam research fabs, making actual chips, with resolution comparable to or better than the current generation of ASML gear, 20-30 years ago, built at costs that were accessible to research universities.

But electrons have a huge, enormous disadvantage: because they are charged, they repel each other. So a bright electron beam naturally spreads out, and multiple parallel beams will deflect each other. And electrons will get stuck in electrically nonconductive photoresists, causing the photoresist to (hopefully temporarily) build up a surface charge, interfering with future electron beams.

All of that causes e-beam lithography to be slow. Which is why those research fabs from the nineties weren’t mass-producing supercomputers.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DARPA funded a bit in this space a while ago. (Example: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2011/01/darpa-maskless-nanowri... ) I'm not sure how you get over the bandwidth limitations, even with multi-beam.

What bandwidth limitations are you referencing? My understanding is that deep euv lithography is limited by chromatic aberration, so the narrow bandwidth of a single beam FEL would be an advantage. If you need more bandwidth, you can chirp it. Is the bandwidth too high?

They mean bandwidth as in rate at which one can expose a mask using an electron beam, because they’ve confused two different technologies. See my other reply.

P.S. Can you usefully chirp an FEL? I don’t know whether the electron sources that would be used for EUV FELs can be re-tuned quickly enough, nor whether the magnet arrangements are conducive to perturbing the wavelength. But relativistic electron beams are weird and maybe it works fine. Of course, I also have no idea why you would want to chirp your lithography light source.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#328

The knowledge came from former ASML employees. I wonder if countries will sanction these individuals given the geopolitical implications of their assistance.

Well real question is how much would that limit PRC talent from working abroad. PRC will be producing plurality of STEM / high skilled talent for decades. They're going to be the only country with project intergrated circuit talent glut in next 10 years, every other semi power projected to have 100,000s shortage. No PRC talent, and you cap western semi talent pool. Ultimately a lot western innovation run on brain dra…

Your point is right on. And additionally, why would an average Indian refuse the pay package to work in China? The top r&d guy at SMIC is from Taiwan after all. Liang got both Samsung and SMIC into the advanced nodes.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#329
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if my high level political and military leadership are the threat scenario? Remember Snowden.

You're screwed. An individual is completely powerless against the combined might of the entire country they live in. Nothing you touch and nobody you talk to can be trusted. But realistically, they'll just bring out the wrench[0]. [0]: https://xkcd.com/538/

Or more likely you're just not that important and will be imprisoned without cause because close enough is good enough.

People always seem to imagine tyranny worries about a standard of evidence. Tyranny has arrest quotas, evidence optional.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. That's where this is heading, and the West-- as usual-- is pursuing quarterly profits and forgetting to look up.

> pursuing quarterly profits and forgetting to look up "Forgetting to look up" implies a desire or intent to do so. The United States - former leader of the collective West - made the choice decades ago to sacrifice everything on the altar of quarterly profits. All that remains are the consequences of that decision.

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