The RAM shortage comes for us all • Hacker News Board

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#321

Post by agoodusername63 » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 11:13 PM UTC

QuadrupleA wrote: post #123

Only a matter of time before supply catches up and then likely overshoots (maybe combined with AI / datacenter bubble popping), and RAM becomes dirt cheap. Sucks for those who need it now though.

If openai was building out with DDR5 that would create a big ol supply of DDR5 to make RAM cheap.

No. They bought the wafers for HBM. The only thing thats going to get cheap when openai implodes are server stuff for homelab bros. The RAM manufacturers are using their production capacity to produce HBM for openai.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#322

Post by synack » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 11:13 PM UTC

I wonder if we'll start to see instance type shortages or price increases from EC2 and GCP if they can't get enough DRAM for latest gen servers.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#323

Post by ballpug » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 11:15 PM UTC

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Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#324

Post by nish__ » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 11:21 PM UTC

danparsonson wrote: post #257

nish__ wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We'll have to gain some experience then :)

Sure - once you have dozens of engineers and 5 years under your belt you'll be good to go! This will get you started: https://youtu.be/B2482h_TNwg Keep in mind that every wafer makes multiple trips around the fab, and on each trip it visits multiple machines. Broadly, one trip lays down one layer, and you may need 80-100 layers (although I guess DRAM will be fewer). Each layer must be aligned to nanometer precision w…

Thank you. This is going to be way harder than I thought.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#325

Post by nish__ » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 11:22 PM UTC

retube wrote: post #309

nish__ wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My napkin math: According to my research, these machines can etch around 150 wafers per hour and each wafer can fit around 50 top-of-the-line GPUs. This means we can produce around 7500 AI chips per hour. Sell them for $1k a piece. That's $7.5 million per hour in revenue. Run the thing for 3 days and we recover costs. I'm sure there's more involved but that sounds like a pretty good ROI to me.

yeaaahhh.. these fabs don't just have a button that says "punch out a top of the line nvidia GPU"

You're right. I'm throwing away the napkin.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#326

Post by nish__ » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 11:23 PM UTC

shadowpho wrote: post #308

nish__ wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent a warehouse.

And then spend the next five years building the actual fab around it? Like what’s the plan here.

No you're right. My math is very off.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#327

Post by kvemkon » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 11:25 PM UTC

nish__ wrote: post #204

phil21 wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you really need ASML machines to do DDR5 RAM? Honest question, but I figured there was competition for the non-bleeding edge - perhaps naively so.

Yes. You need 16nm or better for DDR5.

ASML cannot be avoided for 7nm and better due to EUV.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#328

Post by Aurornis » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 11:25 PM UTC

bullen wrote: post #124

MPSimmons wrote: post #89

This reminds me of the recent LaurieWired video presenting a hypothetical of, "what if we stopped making CPUs": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2OJFqs8bUk Spoiler, but the answer is basically that old hardware rules the day because it lasts longer and is more reliable of timespans of decades. DDR5 32GB is currently going for ~$330 on Amazon DDR4 32GB is currently going for ~$130 on Amazon DDR3 32GB is currently goin…

Yes, DDR3 is the lowest CAS latency and lasts ALOT longer. Just like SSDs from 2010 have 100.000 writes per bit instead of below 10.000. CPUs might even follow the same durability pattern but that remains to be seen. Keep your old machines alive and backed up!

> Yes, DDR3 is the lowest CAS latency and lasts ALOT longer.

DDR5 is more reliable. Where are you getting this info that DDR3 lasts longer?

DDR5 runs at lower voltages, uses modern processes, and has on-die ECC.

This is already showing up in reduced failure rates for DDR5 fleets: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11068349

The other comment already covered why comparing CAS latency is misleading. CAS latency is measured in clock cycles. Multiply by the length of a clock cycle to get the CAS delay.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#329

Post by Narishma » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 11:26 PM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #50

roadside_picnic wrote: post #37

I know this is mostly paranoid thinking on my behalf, but it almost feels like this is a conscious effort to attempt to destroy "personal" computing. I've been a huge advocate for local, open, generative AI as the best resistance to massive take-over by large corporations controlling all of this content creation. But even as it is (or "was" I should say), running decent models at home is prohibitively expensive for m…

The first "proper" "modern" computer I had, initially came with 8 megabytes of RAM. It's not a lot, but it's enough for a dumb terminal.

A dumb terminal doesn't even need a tenth of that.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#330

Post by nish__ » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 11:27 PM UTC

bhhaskin wrote: post #319

nish__ wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll do it for free. And I'm sure we could rent a facility.

I think you are vastly underestimating how a modern fab works. The average cost is 10 billion and takes a about 10 years to build. They are very complex and even the slightest issue can ruin yields. There is a reason why there are so few.

Yeah you're right. I was way off.