Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

321–330 of 693 posts

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#321

Post by johnnyanmac »

matwood wrote: post #312
johnnyanmac wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah pretty much. Engineers are going to be at a crossroad where they either turn to the government to finally build in some proper labor laws and other obvious controls (how about re-banning stock buybacks?) or go out to the Wild West and hope they idea can sustain their livelihood. Given the vibes of the community here: I guess I'll look for a Mad Max mask (I'll ofc keep performing my civic duties, though).

> how about re-banning stock buybacks? This is pretend boogie man. Banning buybacks will not automatically make that money flow into hiring or salaries. Companies are not charities, they exist to make a return. If hiring people and/or paying more will generate a larger return than giving the money back to shareholders either through buybacks or dividends, then companies will do that. AI is now giving companies someth…

>Banning buybacks will not automatically make that money flow into hiring or salaries.

Nope, but that's what trends show us from the decades between its ban and bans being lifted. All I know is that companies flowing money back into itself and having executives shift in and out every few years clearly hasn't worked.

It's just one stepping stone to make sure companies have skin in the game again.

You can argue dividends but that means the money gets taxed quicker, so that also helps the people.

>AI is now giving companies something to do with excess cash that could generate better returns

Sure, for now. I think that problem will fix itself sooner than later, so I'm not too concerned about that. Trends come and go.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#322

Post by Marsymars »

fooker wrote: post #310
Marsymars wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but there was nothing stopping people with $10k in savings in 2015 from buying Nvidia. If someone with $10k in savings had bought Nvidia in 2015, they’d have $2.5m today. But that only works for a relatively small number of people before the $2.5m is no longer $2.5m - they’re all drawing from the same $6 trillion pot. “Everyone with a good tech job” is accurate, but besides the point, it would work exactly the…

> it would work exactly the same if you limited it to “everyone who’s a plumber” or “everyone who’s a fedex driver” Yes, "Everyone with a good tech job" has a significantly higher chance of keeping or holding tech RSUs, and have conviction that investing in tech is going to pay off. > but literally cannot work for everyone at the same time Yes, that is how the world works. Anything that makes you successful would not…

> Yes, that is how the world works. Anything that makes you successful would not work for everyone at the same time.

To me this reads as a particularly misanthropic view of the world that only considers zero-sum (or less than zero sum) actions.

Any investments in yourself that aren’t at the expense of others (education, exercise, diet, therapy, living space improvements, etc., etc.) or investments in family and community, benefit both you and others and would work for everybody; indeed, many such investments would work better the more people undertook them, rather than the fewer.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#323

Post by matwood »

fooker wrote: post #320
matwood wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In GA, after taxes your take home would be ~125k. So you think someone can live in a big city like ATL for 25k/year? What if they have a family? Ok, are you assuming their spouse is also in tech and making at least similar? The 125k also doesn't have healthcare deducted yet. Some of the comments on this thread highlight just how disconnected many people were/are from everything outside of the FAANG bubble.

If you live in an expensive city and do not have a proportional salary, obviously you are going to save less. > Ok, are you assuming their spouse is also in tech and making at least similar? Yes, suppose spouse contributes to household expenses, but assume separate savings and investments for this calculation. Do you see you'd easily get to 100k saved? The difference between having a large fraction of your savings in…

Ok, so you need 2 people working in tech making near top end salaries for the area? You do see how this simple idea of saving 100k/year isn't so simple for anyone outside of FAANG?

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#324

Post by fooker »

Marsymars wrote: post #322
fooker wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it would work exactly the same if you limited it to “everyone who’s a plumber” or “everyone who’s a fedex driver” Yes, "Everyone with a good tech job" has a significantly higher chance of keeping or holding tech RSUs, and have conviction that investing in tech is going to pay off. > but literally cannot work for everyone at the same time Yes, that is how the world works. Anything that makes you successful would not…

> Yes, that is how the world works. Anything that makes you successful would not work for everyone at the same time. To me this reads as a particularly misanthropic view of the world that only considers zero-sum (or less than zero sum) actions. Any investments in yourself that aren’t at the expense of others (education, exercise, diet, therapy, living space improvements, etc., etc.) or investments in family and commu…

Do you see the difference between

> more

and

> everyone

?

If more people bought Nvidia stocks, the value would be higher. If everyone bought, something would give (and that is exactly what we are starting to see).

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#325

Post by johnnyanmac »

SilverElfin wrote: post #264
reactordev wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was going to say this. Money comes, money goes, that’s life. Ideally you’re smart enough to save and invest to weather these storms but for those (like myself) that are still working hard post 40, we know it’s all part of the game. I tell the younger generation the same thing. Save, invest, max 401k, before you go off and party. Your older self will thank you.

Others are criticizing you but the reality is that people usually spend more and save less than they could. There are plenty of people with modest income who manage to build a decent retirement. But it takes discipline. You have to be okay with sacrificing for the future.

>the reality is that people usually spend more and save less than they could.

You can't save your way out of rent being 70, 80+% of your paycheck. For my area, minimum wage is $18 and your best hope for rent is sharing a $3k 2 bedroom apartment. quick napkin math suggests $2400 take home pay and ~$1800 eaten up between the rent split, utilities, gas, and the most basic rice and beans diet of "groceries". Not even including potential health insurance or car notes or student loans.

If you don't have the fortune of a family who'd house you for free/dirt cheap then you don't have much to save. You're already sacrificing for the present.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#326

Post by [deleted] »

donatj wrote: post #311
AIorNot wrote: post #260

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

The number of just straight out NO's I've gotten has been surprising and disheartening. I've been a developer for 20 years and genuinely don't think I've gotten an outright "no" before this year. Usually just no response. I've gotten maybe eight or nine actual rejections this year. It's honestly worse, emotionally. Ideally I want a job outside my wheelhouse to learn and move forward, but it seems like no one these da…

[deleted]

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#327

Post by 8f2ab37a-ed6c »

AIorNot wrote: post #260

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

Do you have a thesis for why that might be happening? Ageism? Overqualification? The next generation of hiring managers not knowing what to do with you? Past experience being deemed irrelevant to modern SWE problems? Is it all just a bad market? Your profile strikes me as the last one that would struggle with landing a gig.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#328

Post by kragen »

adamredwoods wrote: post #220
HDThoreaun wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

McDonald’s is expensive. Much cheaper to cook yourself.

Situational. IMO, I think it breaks even, but eating out saves a lot of time! Healthier cooking at home? Yes. I studied this for myself (N=1), and my cooking is about US$10/meal give or take (asparagus, chicken, rice, water to drink). If you cook for two or more people, then I think cooking at home comes out ahead financially.

What hourly wage are you imputing to your cooking to get US$10 for a meal of asparagus, chicken, and rice? My estimate for the materials would be:

- 250g raw chicken wings: $375 ≈ 30¢ (I bought these on Saturday, so this is the current price)

- 200g asparagus: $1500 ≈ US$1 (this is a rough guess because I never buy it and the greengrocer doesn't have a web site)

- 100g dry long-grain rice: $100 ≈ 7¢ (just checked the price online, and I think this is rather high)

- water to drink and cook the rice is unmetered here

Total: US$1.37. But you could easily get it down to less than half that with a different vegetable. Salts, spices, and oils might add a few pennies.

Possibly if you are at McMurdo Base or something your ingredient prices might be unusual.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#329

Post by johnnyanmac »

ethin wrote: post #216
johnnyanmac wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You telling someone with 50k in debt, turning in 1000's or job apps struggling to find a job they studied 4+ years for and not being able to even pay rent to "just save"... is exactly how we got into this situation to begin with.

I'm literally one of these people. My only work experience is a GSoC internship in 2021. I have yet to get hired and I've been looking for 4 years, graduated in 2022 right before ChatGPT came out. I've had no choice but to become a generalist as a consequence, and over the last year or two my interviews have dropped to zero and absolutely none of the advice I've gotten from anybody has helped. Just my personal experi…

Yeah, I'm really sorry this happened. I'm managing a bit better since I graduated in 2017, but I still pretty much had my senior trajectory yoinked from under me. The market is completely different now than back when I graduated.

I don't really have any advice for the present. We're in a storm, so do what you need to weather it. If there's any downtime you do have, use it to prepare for when (if?) the market bounces back:

1. Network. Nothing serious but just get to know people in your area. Keep in contact and they might one day have an in for some work.

2. work on personal projects. They aren't being looked at now, but it'll help you stand out when the market corrects itself.

3. consider some adjacent skillsets. At some point, if this last longer than any of us expect, it may be best to vouch for yourself. learning some graphic design can help you sell your own apps or make websites for others. Learning some art can help you sell games. embrace the generalization and be able to take small products from start to finih by youself. If you don't want to get completely out, you may want to start shaping your career around being your own boss instead of relying on others to employ you.

4. take care of your physical health. I don't know your body, and you may already be doing this. But it's always important to remind people (especially in a field like tech) that sometimes a breath of fresh air and 10 minutes of walking can make all the difference. Don't let yourself get cooped up.

Best of luck out there.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#330

Post by 8f2ab37a-ed6c »

seanw444 wrote: post #318
donatj wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of just straight out NO's I've gotten has been surprising and disheartening. I've been a developer for 20 years and genuinely don't think I've gotten an outright "no" before this year. Usually just no response. I've gotten maybe eight or nine actual rejections this year. It's honestly worse, emotionally. Ideally I want a job outside my wheelhouse to learn and move forward, but it seems like no one these da…

> I genuinely have zero idea what you're looking for if the literal perfect fit isn't it. The simple answer is that they probably had no intention of hiring you, or anybody, in the first place. The amount of fake job listings is absurd.

Why do they bother wasting time on interviewing the person though? Or does it never get that far?
Post reply on HN