321–330 of 575 posts
Based on the productivity gains in the last 50 years, there are certainly engineers worth $100,000,000 that had no idea the impact they were going to have on the world. We are in a time where the impact can be measured more quickly, so good for the engineers taking advantage of this.
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> winner-take-all (most) > If the very best LLM is 1.5x as good as good as the next-best, then pretty much everyone in the world will want to use the best one Is it? Gemini is arguably better than OAI in most cases but I'm not sure it's as popular among general public
I don't think there's a consensus on this. I have found Gemini to be so-so, and the UX is super annoying when you run out of your pro usage. IME, there's no way to have continuity to a lower-tier model, which makes is a huge hassle. I basically never use it anymore.
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> The thing is, AI researchers have continually underestimated the pace of AI progress What's your argument? That because experts aren't good at making predictions that non-experts must be BETTER at making predictions? Let me ask you this: who do you think is going to make a less accurate prediction? Assuming no one is accurate here, everybody is wrong. So the question is who is more or less accurate. Because there i…
>Go look at the referenced paper[0]. It is on page 3, last item in Figure 1, labeled "Simple Python code given spec and examples". That line is just after 2023 and goes to just after 2028. There's a dot representing the median opinion that's left of the vertical line half way between 2023 and 2028. Last I checked, 8-3 = 5, and 2025 The graph you're looking at is of the 2023 survey, not the 2022 one As for your questi…
> As for your question, I don't see what it proves.
I showed the claim was false
The author bases his argument on this and similar claims. Showing his claim is false says he's argument doesn't hold
> and is only incorrect by a broad characterization
But I do know I'd answer that question differently given your reframing.
One way to make sense of this specific case at least. - He's on track to becoming a top-tier AI researcher. Despite having only one year of a PhD under his belt, he already received two top awards as a first-author at major AI conferences [1]. Typically, it takes many more years of experience to do research that receives this level of recognition. Most PhDs never get there. - Molmo, the slate of open vision-language…
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These figures are for a very small number of potential people. This leaves out that frontier AI is being developed by an incredibly small number of extremely smart people who have migrated between big tech, frontier AI, and others. Yes, the figures are nuts. But compare them to F1 or soccer salaries for top athletes. A single big name can drive billions in that context at least, and much more in the context of AI. $5…
They're not high because of performance/results alone.
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> he with his several teams, actually made electric cars a market wide reality Electric cars? That would be Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, Tesla’s actual founders. They created the Roadster and brought the vision. Musk came in with money, staged a hostile takeover, and then rewrote the company’s history to fit his inflated ego, like the sad little man he is. It's honestly cringe. > cheap orbit rockets and with…
man I'm so sorry for you. Like if you can't understand what some people lead or achieve, which is real with rockets and such. You just write long BS for you bias. Have a good day
I feel sorry for you. I guess we can share our feeling sorry for each other in common.
> You just write long BS for you bias.
Careful now, your bias is showing.
> Have a good day
Every day is a great day with the money i've made off TSLA lately :) Thanks Elon!
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I agree on all points. However, if he already had several millions like Mira and Ilya, his choice to work for Zuckerberg would likely be different. Where is the glory in bending the knee to Meta and Zuckerbeg?
I’d forgo a lot of glory for $250M. I suspect I’m not rare in that.
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Bubble might not burst, if we can improve productivity in every field even 0.5%, that’s massive.
If you agree it is a bubble, you are agreeing it is going to burst. Because that is what defines a bubble. I have two questions about this, really: - is he going to be the last guy getting this kind of value out of a couple of research papers and some intimidated CEO's FOMO? - are we now entering a world where people are effectively hypothetical acquihires ? That is, instead of hiring someone because they have a succ…