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The Demoralization is just Beginning

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Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#321

Post by cycomanic »

rayiner wrote: post #184
deserts wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The book you cite and more generally the arguments traced in the Deep Roots literature are not very strong and often deployed to support anti-immigrant, anti-assimiliationist views. I'm not persuaded we could recreate America even if we took any 1000 people, even people who can trace their apple pie eating back to the Mayflower, because you know, America is a country and more generally complex arrangement of stuff th…

> often deployed to support anti-immigrant, anti-assimiliationist views. So what? Immigration is optional. The people supporting large-scale migration from countries without functional democracies should have the burden of proving that cultural attitudes salient to democracy are not durable. Even in the U.S., I'm not persuaded that the Anglo-American republic as originally conceived survived the mass immigration of c…

The US, Canada and Australia were all formed at times where the origin countries where not liberal democracies, so where did that "democratic seed" come from, and why should people fleeing totalitarian regimes not have it?

This argument really does not make sense, and lest we forget those "enlightened democratic western cultures" created some pretty gruesome dictatorships in the intermittent years.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#322

Post by brazzy »

roenxi wrote: post #21
jfengel wrote: post #6

For his solutions: "Brain drain" is what we had been doing for the past 80 years or so. It worked great. We're specifically driving people away now. "Gold standard" is an idea every sane economist rejected decades ago.

> "Gold standard" is an idea every sane economist rejected decades ago. I don't think any sane economists have ever "rejected" the gold standard, it is known to work. Pretty much any empire ever founded was built on a gold standard. The US jumped away from it because they were going to go bankrupt and picked a system that put the pain off until a later date. Now, 50 years later, they appear to have lost the title of…

> Pretty much any empire ever founded was built on a gold standard.

Ahistorical bullshit.

Gold coinage was never really a big thing, because gold was too rare to make gold coins for everyday usage feasible. Pretty much all historical empires used primarily silver coins. The UK pound used to be a literal pound of silver.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#323

Post by intended »

hot_gril wrote: post #85
lxgr wrote: post #28

> Back the dollar by gold [...] The second will prevent a lot of the scams. Oh boy... Bitcoin in many ways is idealized gold (unlike the real one, its supply is actually limited), yet there is no shortage of scams around it. On the contrary, a gold standard would remove one of the most essential tools modern governments have: That of monetary policy. That sounds like a good idea if and only if there's an extreme shor…

The monetary policy we have coerces people into passive investing, creating bubbles. When rates are low, you see bogus "tech" plays like wifi water dispensers, that's the scam the author means. Also makes taxes weird, e.g. why capital gains aren't the same as income (today USD ≠ past USD). Gold standard is wasteful though; Fed could just keep a steady money supply instead. But it's our scam. The Fed isn't only diluti…

You also see tons of other firms getting off the ground, generating actual revenue and wealth.

The ZIRP was there for a reason.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#324

Post by throwawaymaths »

Gareth321 wrote: post #316
throwawaymaths wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Citation: https://archive.nytimes.com/krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/0...

He is explaining a market dynamic, not prescribing a political policy. He's correct: with zero inflation, normal market dynamics means that some jobs become less valuable over time, and others become more valuable. This is natural progress caused by all kinds of factors like scientific advancements. In such an environment, it is very difficult for employers of the now antiquated jobs to cut wages. So they simply cut…

You cant be serious. Inflation is a policy. it is mandated in the fed charter. and at the end of the article, he says "let's have more inflation". he is prescribing it.

> rather than firing them

Absolutely nuts outcome. why dont we enable capital to be lazy terrible dishonest management instead of having them actually respond to market forces with hard truths and look their employee in the eye and fire their employee. what could go wrong with this sort of social policy?

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#325

Post by intended »

monero-xmr wrote: post #200
necubi wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's probably worth learning a little bit about economic history before talking about the benefits of the gold standard. Before the fed was created, the US economy was constantly booming and busting. There were recessions every few years in the 19th century [0]. Why folks are so eager to return to that era is beyond me. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_Unit...

The economy is still booming and busting, we just paper over it with debt like good Keynesians. The macro world is extremely nuanced. I’m someone who likes experiments. If we could give every American instant access to convert savings to gold (or bitcoin), directly in their savings accounts, it would certainly be an interesting experiment. If you have significant assets, inflation isn’t a big deal. If you are like mo…

The boom and bust cycle has required things like 2008, COVID, major wars, Brexit to create these booms and busts.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#326

Post by intended »

hot_gril wrote: post #101
lxgr wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, inflation incentivizes spending and/or investments, and (in moderation) that's generally a very good thing. The only other alternative that doesn't create incredibly bleak incentives for anyone that doesn't inherit wealth would be wealth and estate taxes, but good luck getting either passed or reformed.

I don't see why the economy benefits long-term from people spending/investing only to get the money off their hands. Especially when it gets parked in things like gold and real estate just cause those supplies are sorta fixed.

Investments move to stocks and equity.

Real estate itself gets traded via proxy on the markets.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#327

Post by sebastianz »

lxgr wrote: post #133
kawaiikouhai wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. I had this exact thought experiment of "What if America were no longer Hegemon". So, I looked at other historic examples. The British, Dutch, and Spanish. (You can add German/Austrian and the French, close contenders). They're all still very well-off!

I actually grew up in one of these, and I fully agree. Yes, my country was significantly larger and more influential a century ago. It even was an empire, with an emperor and all! But no, I don't feel like the average person born back then had a better life than me.

> I don't feel like the average person born back then had a better life than me.

This is true for (almost) anywhere in the world. Everybody has a better life _on average_ than 100 years ago.

> It even was an empire, with an emperor and all!

But the fact that your country was the capital of an empire a century ago is a large reason for why it is richer now, and generational wealth was indeed passed on.

This perhaps is visible if you look at countries that used to be subservient to yours, in empire times. Are they not - relatively - still poorer than the former empire capital?

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#328

Post by surgical_fire »

baq wrote: post #253
jajko wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point, and from this point onward, some other hegemons sound darn good compared to US. russia aint one, they simply lack competence for anything grander than petty squables at their borders. Everybody hates them, inclusing all former soviet bloc countries and only deal with them when they have to. Ie China is not doing sudden backstabbing of its allies, strongarming weak at their weakest point. In contrary ie…

Why do you present China as an alternative? I’d you’re a western country, the CCP is not a body you want anything to do with unless you’re desperate. They do not share western values. If you don’t ally with the US, you really, really want to be a separate center of power, because everyone who isn’t US wants to exploit you dry and admits it openly.

Why not?

China seems a lot more reliable than the US, and has seem more reliable for quite a while.

You speak as if the US does not exploit others dry. The US is a lot more malignant than you make it sound.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#329

Post by [deleted] »

ryandamm wrote: post #11

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

[deleted]

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#330

Post by selimthegrim »

tokioyoyo wrote: post #229
throwaway2037 wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The majority of American households in the poorest US states are doing better than the majority of Europeans. I'm so tired of this trope on HN. It comes up over and over again, but never considers non-economic quality of life issues. Take for example public schools: They are awful in poor US states, and good-to-excellent in most highly developed European nations.

I swear, none of these people have been to Louisiana, West Virginia, or any of the empty-looking cities that used to be lively 50 years ago. And I’m saying this as a person who isn’t American, but wanted to check it out myself before I made assumptions about the world.

Living in New Orleans right now I concur.
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