> The biggest problem: developers don’t want GPUs. They don’t even want AI/ML models. They want LLMs. System engineers may have smart, fussy opinions on how to get their models loaded with CUDA, and what the best GPU is. But software developers don’t care about any of that. When a software developer shipping an app comes looking for a way for their app to deliver prompts to an LLM, you can’t just give them a GPU. I'm…
We were wrong about GPUs
321–330 of 604 posts
Re: We were wrong about GPUs
#322Not sure about this: > like with our portfolio of IPv4 addresses, I’m even more comfortable making bets backed by tradable assets with durable value. Is that referencing the gpus, the hardware? If yes, why should they have a durable value? Historically hardware like that deprecated fast and reaches a value of 0, energy efficiency alone kills e.g. old server hardware. Something different here?
I mean consumer GPUs, yes. But server GPUs tend to deprecate slower. Which we also see with e.g. A100 80GiB is approaching 5 years of age, but still sold and used widely and still cost ~20k$USD (and I remember a noticable higher price before deep seek...). The thing is sure a A100 80GiB is a much older arch then successors, but the main bottleneck is the memory of which it has 80GiB.
What was the price at launch?
Re: We were wrong about GPUs
#323I have a timeline that I am still trying to work through but it goes like this : 2012 - moores law basically ends - nand gates do t get smaller just more cleverly wrapped. Single threaded execution more or less stops at 2 GHz and has remained there. 2012-2022 - no one notices single threaded is stalled because everything moves to VMs in the cloud - the excess parallel compute from each generation is just shared out i…
Re: We were wrong about GPUs
#324Earlier quoted context omitted.
No one who claims this ever posts a benchmark Prompt eval is slow, inference for large models at high context is slow, training is limited and slow. It's better than not having anything, but we got rid of our M1 Max 192GBs after about a year.
What will you pay me for the benchmarks, for the professional knowledge and analysis? I can post benchmarks for these Mac machines and clusters of Studios and M4 Mac Minis (see my other HN posts last month, the largest Mac cluster I can benchmark for you has 4 TB of ultrafast unified memory and around 9216 M4 cores).
Re: We were wrong about GPUs
#325I really liked playing around with fly gpus, but it's just too expensive for hobby-use. Same goes for the rest of fly.io honestly. The DX is great and I wish I could move all of my homelab stuff and public websites to it, but it'd be way too expensive :(
This is near and dear to me, because I want people to run stuff like homelabs and side projects. What part of the cost gets out of hand? Having to have a Machine for every process? Do you remember what napkin math pricing you were working with?
For example, I could get a digitalocean vm with 2gb ram, 1vcpu, 50gb storage, 2tb bandwidth for $12/mo.
For the same specs at fly.io, it'd be ~$22/mo not including any bandwidth. It could be less if it scales to zero/auto stops.
I recently tried experimenting with two different projects at fly. One was an attic server to cache packages for NixOS. Only used by me and my own vms. Even with auto scaling to zero, I think it was still around $15-20/mo.
The other was a fly gpu machine with Ollama on it. The cold start time + downloading a model each time was kind of painful, so I opted for just adding a 100gb volume. I don't actually remember what I was paying for that, but probably another 20/mo? I used it heavily for a few days to play around and then not so much later. I do remember doing the math and thinking it wouldn't be sustainable if I wanted to use it for stuff like home-assistant voice assistant or going through pdfs/etc with paperless.
On their own, neither of these are super expensive. But if I want to run multiple home services, the cost is just going to skyrocket with every new app I run. If I can rent a decent dedicated server for $100-$200/mo, then I at least don't have to worry about the cost increasing on me if a machine never scales to zero due to a healthcheck I forgot about or something like that.
Sorry if it's a bit rambly, happy to answer questions!
Re: We were wrong about GPUs
#326> The biggest problem: developers don’t want GPUs. They don’t even want AI/ML models. They want LLMs. System engineers may have smart, fussy opinions on how to get their models loaded with CUDA, and what the best GPU is. But software developers don’t care about any of that. When a software developer shipping an app comes looking for a way for their app to deliver prompts to an LLM, you can’t just give them a GPU. I'm…
I feel this is similar to what you are pointing out. Why _shouldn’t_ people be the “magic” users. When was the last time one of your average devs looked in to how esm loading? Or the python interpreter or v8? Or how it communicates with the OS and lower level hardware interfacing?
This is the same thing. Only you are goalpost shifting.
Re: We were wrong about GPUs
#327I really liked playing around with fly gpus, but it's just too expensive for hobby-use. Same goes for the rest of fly.io honestly. The DX is great and I wish I could move all of my homelab stuff and public websites to it, but it'd be way too expensive :(
That sounds kinda weird to me. I use fly.io exactly because the pricing works out for hobby use. I can enable my machine for a few hours, run a bunch of inference, and turn it off again. The whole auto start/stop thing makes it seamless too.
fly.io was the first provider I tried any gpu offerings at, I probably should give it another shot now that I've used a few others.
Re: We were wrong about GPUs
#328Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There's an (increasingly small) group of software developers who don't like "magic" and want to understand where their code is running and what it's doing. These developers gravitate toward open source solutions like Kubernetes Kubernetes is not the first thing that comes to mind when I think of "understanding where their code is running and what it's doing"...
Great opportunity for someone ballsy to write a book about kubernetes internals for the general engineering population. Bonus points for writing a basic implementation from first principles capturing the essence of the problem kubernetes really was meant to solve. The 100 pages kubernetes book, Andriy Burkov style.
https://github.com/kelseyhightower/kubernetes-the-hard-way
It probably won't answer the "why" (although any LLM can answer that nowadays), but it will definitely answer the "how".
Re: We were wrong about GPUs
#329I shelled out for a 4090 when they came out thinking it would be the key factor for running local llms. It turns out that anything worth running takes way more than 24GB VRAM. I would have been better off with 2+ 3090s and a custom power supply. It’s a pity because I thought it would be a great solution for coding and a home assistant, but performance and quality isn’t there yet for small models (afaik). Perhaps DIGI…
Re: We were wrong about GPUs
#330> The biggest problem: developers don’t want GPUs. They don’t even want AI/ML models. They want LLMs. System engineers may have smart, fussy opinions on how to get their models loaded with CUDA, and what the best GPU is. But software developers don’t care about any of that. When a software developer shipping an app comes looking for a way for their app to deliver prompts to an LLM, you can’t just give them a GPU. I'm…