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Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

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Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#321

Post by jorvi »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #250
lolinder wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And now they're at the point where the population pyramid is collapsing. It's hard to make any predictions about the future when they got here riding a baby boom and now their ratio of elderly to working age is about to go through the roof. https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2023/

Japan, Germany, Italy, and numerous other countries are all much worse off. Assuming things don't change, China in 2050 will be in approximately the same position as Japan today . Germany and Italy, to take but two examples of large Western economies, haven't had native above-replacement TFR since ~1970. Even in the US, TFR is well below replacement right now, and in fact is basically comparable to China's TFR from 2…

You’re conveniently leaving out that that China is still a middle-income country.

It can bear the burden of developing and producing things like solar panels or batteries or AI because of the sheer size of the population, but that doesn’t work if the population itself is the problem.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#322

Post by mistercheph »

n144q wrote: post #57
nsoonhui wrote: post #13

I find that the gushing around deepseek is fascinating to watch. To me there are a few structural and fundamental reasons why deepseek can never outperform other models by a wide margin. On par maybe--as we reach the diminishing returns with our investment in the models, but not win by a wide margin. 1. The US trade war with china which will place deepseek compute availability at disadvantages, eventually, if we ever…

"to some degree" If you are a history researcher or a political analyst, maybe. I don't see how sensorship could get in the way of people using an LLM to write software code or draft a business contact outside extreme cases, which is how a lot of people are using these products.

This is the kind of thing I would expect to read in the internet forums of an unfree society, rationalizations of why the status quo of censorship and lack of freedom doesn't really affect anyone with legitimate purposes, etc. etc, the oldest yarn..

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#323

Post by blackoil »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #301
sangnoir wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is the kind of scale the sanctions make a lot harder to achieve Harder and more expensive, but far from impossible. I doubt they pay more than doubles Nvidia's sticker price, all told. My comment was inspired by recent real-life events; Nvidia got into legal trouble in the last couple of months for turning a blind eye to questionable transactions - if you're curious about the mechanics of GPU sanctions-busting…

That really sounds plausible. They could open a training farm in Vietnam or Mongolia (or even Taiwan, or really anywhere the internet goes) and just use it, the GPUs don’t need to be located in the mainland. The only way to lock down the GPUs would be to just restrict completely to who could use them, and then prevent them from contracting with sanctioned entities. When I was working in Beijing, we definitely had res…

Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea are closeby and large+stable enough to easily create such data centers. Small batches for experimentation by team can be easily smuggled. China is too large and powerful to be completely sanctioned.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#325

Post by rickandmortyy »

dgfitz wrote: post #231
culi wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no reason to think Deepseek is engaged in any such practices. It's also open source unlike many of the western counterparts

You posit that individual freedoms exist inside China? I posit they do not.

[dead]

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#326

Post by throwaway290 »

blackoil wrote: post #324

If is funny how a site that otherwise stays away from politics turns into reddit as soon as China is mentioned.

Maybe because it is a country using technology to attack US. It caused deaths of US citizens. And this was going for 10+ years.

I have the opposite question, why that is not brought up every time China is mentioned.

https://www.naccho.org/blog/articles/cyber-attack-on-u-s-hos...

https://www.theregister.com/2024/12/30/att_verizon_confirm_s...

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/28/cyberattacks-u-s-ho... Yes these days more of it is Russia and DPRK (the peace loving prosperous country according to ByteDance's AI) but hmm let's see where they would get the tech from if they are banned from it otherwise

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#327

Post by tw1984 »

roca wrote: post #249
joshbaptiste wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a sovereign nation rises in power you'll notice how it slowly starts losing favor from USA

If it's a democracy and reasonably friendly to the USA, it's not a big deal. In the 1990s everyone thought Japan was going to be the next superpower and that was just fine.

are you kidding? the US forced Japan to sign the plaza accord effectively ending Japan's rise. that was followed by 30 years close to zero economic growth.

you are not mature enough to discuss such topic if you believe the US will be happy to be taken over by some democratic friends.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#328

Post by rapind »

Dalewyn wrote: post #309
jasdi wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is one of the biggest reasons why China or India are threat to the West. Because their Engineers are constantly in situations were they have to work with much less resources. And they come up with stuff that constantly surprises people for being much cheaper. The western reaction is to then go and buy them out. Its not going to work forever. They have already taken over large swathes of the tech landscape. Even…

For how much we all bitch about beancounters, I'm kind of surprised that beancounters haven't managed to convince management to buy bottom-of-the-barrel Celeron laptops for software developers. Make those fucking assholes use the hardware of the people instead of some monstrosity with a 256 cores CPU and 48 TB of RAM and 24 exabytes of enterprise SSD and an RTX Cinco Grande connected via optical fiber to the Amazonfl…

> Make those fucking assholes use the hardware of the people

Are you sure it’s the engineers who are being complacent? I know quite a few coders who’d love nothing more than to spend months on optimizations eking out small performance gains. Their bosses (or the market) don’t let them.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#329

Post by tw1984 »

joyeuse6701 wrote: post #98
tossandthrow wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ... why deepseek can never outperform ... This read more like a "western supremacists" post. 1. Only until China produces more compute than the west. 2. You don't have to ask ChatGPT / Claude many questions before realizing the grave censorship these are under - DeepSeek has access the roughly the same corpus of data as their western counter parts. 3. It is naive to think they only develop open source or will not s…

Xi has knee-capped anything a threat to his power, this Xi-ceiling as I call it, will prevent true cutting edge dominance compared to the West. Sure, there’s censorship in the West, but it’s not nearly as scary or effective as the East’s. Genius does not regularly spring under the sword of Damocles.

> Xi has knee-capped anything a threat to his power, this Xi-ceiling as I call it, will prevent true cutting edge dominance compared to the West.

you watched too much MSM western media.

what happened in the last 12 years since Xi's rise to the very top is the complete opposite to what you described. just check all those emerging sectors that had huge growth in that 12 years, like mobile internet, 5G, EVs, renewable energy, robotics, AI, quantum, cryptocurrency, what they have in common? you'd be blind if you couldn't even tell that China is now in the top2 positions for ALL those sectors. all these happened during Xi's term.

we are talking about a country used to be dead poor just 40 years ago - Xi used to live in a cave when he was young!

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#330

Post by tw1984 »

ithkuil wrote: post #181
msp26 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Western LLM censorship affects me far more than Chinese LLM censorship.

In what practical way does it affect you? What kind of domain area are you using the llms?

me: how many genders are there? Gemini 1.5 flash: There is no single, universally accepted number of genders.
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