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GPT-5 is behind schedule

wsj.com

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#321

Post by NBJack »

missedthecue wrote: post #271
dkobia wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is the Sisyphean task of our age. We’ll push this boulder up the mountain because we have to, even if it kills us.

Do we know LLMs are the path to AGI? If they're not, we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs.

No. But it won't stop the industry from trying.

LLMs have no real sense of truth or hard evidence of logical thinking. Even the latest models still trip up on very basic tasks. I think they can be very entertaining, sure, but not practical for many applications.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#322

Post by terminatornet »

mnk47 wrote: post #246
terminatornet wrote: post #198

I'm sure all the people who said "show me AI progress is slowing down!" 6 months ago will be acknowledging this article.

Did you read the article? All it basically says is that OpenAI faced struggles this past year -- specifically with GPT-5 aka Orion. And now they have o3, and other labs have made huge strides. So, yes, show me AI progress is slowing down!

Awesome now they can get me wrong answers even quicker :)

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#323

Post by blinding-streak »

xanderlewis wrote: post #206
simonw wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I'm complaining that just because GPT-4 is called GPT-4 doesn't mean it's the fourth LLM from OpenAI. Off the top of my head: GPT-2, Codex, GPT-3 in three different flavors (babbage, curie, davinci), GPT-3.5. Suggesting that GPT-4 was "fourth" simply isn't credible. Just the other day they announced a jump from o1 to o3, skipping o2 purely because it's already the name of a major telecommunications brand in Europ…

It’s somehow funny to hear a British company being described as ‘in Europe’, but I suppose you’re technically correct…

Europe != EU

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#324

Post by apsec112 »

NBJack wrote: post #321
missedthecue wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we know LLMs are the path to AGI? If they're not, we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs.

No. But it won't stop the industry from trying. LLMs have no real sense of truth or hard evidence of logical thinking. Even the latest models still trip up on very basic tasks. I think they can be very entertaining, sure, but not practical for many applications.

What do you think, if we saw it, would constitute hard evidence of logical thinking or a sense of truth?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#325

Post by bluelightning2k »

simonw wrote: post #146
jacobsimon wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s nothing grammatically offensive about this. It’s like saying, “Cars come in all colors. Mine is red.”

No, I'm complaining that just because GPT-4 is called GPT-4 doesn't mean it's the fourth LLM from OpenAI. Off the top of my head: GPT-2, Codex, GPT-3 in three different flavors (babbage, curie, davinci), GPT-3.5. Suggesting that GPT-4 was "fourth" simply isn't credible. Just the other day they announced a jump from o1 to o3, skipping o2 purely because it's already the name of a major telecommunications brand in Europ…

There's at least 4 major releases just in GPT4.

GPT4, GPT4T, Gpt4o-Mini, GPT4o,

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#326

Post by SahAssar »

School-Cotton wrote: post #310
SahAssar wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK is part of Europe. It's technically, geographically, politically, historically, lingustially, tectonically and socially correct. In what ways is it not?

Are Cuba or Haiti part of North America? A lot of British people feel like their civilization is meaningfully distinct from “Europe”, even though they’re part of it in a technical geographical sense.

> Are Cuba or Haiti part of North America

In general yes, but it depends on if you consider central america as its own continent and if you include them there and how you delineate north/south america. Groupings differ based on your education.

I think the thing that makes the UK different is that there is no other option besides them being a separate thing/continent. Are you suggesting that the UK is it's own continent? Would that be with the faroese and the Greenlanders?

The UK might feel different, but they are not separate. The french feel different from the bulgarians, but that does not mean they are on a separate continent, politically or geographically.

EDIT:

> A lot of British people feel like their civilization is meaningfully distinct

This is, to borrow a word, "balderdash". Looking at the influence vikings, romans and normans have had that is a rubbish argument. Just like other countries in europe the british culture is built on the stones of other cultures, and just like many other countries they subsumed other cultures because of kings or other political dominance.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#327

Post by sdwr »

tucnak wrote: post #141
sdwr wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great improvements and all, but they are still no closer (as of 4o regular) to having a system that can be responsible for work. In math problems, it forgets which variable represents what, in coding questions it invents library fns. I was watching a YouTube interview with a "trading floor insider". They said they were really being paid for holding risk. The bank has a position in a market, and it's their ass on the…

> ChatGPT (as far as I can tell) is no closer to being accountable or responsible for anything it produces. What does it even mean? How do you imagine that? You want OpenAI to take on liability for the kicks of it?

Personal responsibility, not legal liability. In the way a child can be responsible for a pet.

Chatgpt was trained on benchmarks and user opinions - "throwing **** at the wall to see what sticks".

Responsibility means penalties for making mistakes, and, more importantly, having an awareness of those penalties (that informs its decision-making).

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#328

Post by LinearEntropy »

jonas21 wrote: post #179
mathieuh wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s the same for me. I genuinely don’t understand how I can be having such a completely different experience from the people who rave about ChatGPT. Every time I’ve tried it’s been useless. How can some people think it’s amazing and has completely changed how they work, while for me it makes mistakes that a static analyser would catch? It’s not like I’m doing anything remarkable, for the past couple of months I’ve b…

I think the difference comes down to interacting with it like IDE autocomplete vs. interacting with it like a colleague. It sounds like you're doing the former -- and yeah, it can make mistakes that autocomplete wouldn't or generate code that's wrong or overly complex. On the other hand, I've found that if you treat it more like a colleague, it works wonderfully. Ask it to do something, then read the code and ask fol…

I'm in the same boat as the person you're responding to. I really don't understand how to get anything helpful out of ChatGPT, or more than anything basic out of Claude.

> I've found that if you treat it more like a colleague, it works wonderfully. This is what I've been trying to do. I don't use LLM code completion tools. I'll ask anything from how to do something "basicish" with html & css, and it'll always output something that doesn't work as expected. Question it and I'll get into a loop of the same response code, regardless of how I explain that it isn't correct.

On the other end of the scale, I'll ask about an architectural or design decision. I'll often get a response that is in the realm of what I'd expect. When drilling down and asking specifics however, the responses really start to fall apart. I inevitably end up in the loop of asking if an alternative is [more performant/best practice/the language idiomatic way] and getting the "Sorry, you're correct" response. The longer I stay in that loop, the more it contradicts itself, and the less cohesive the answers get.

I _wish_ I could get the results from LLMs that so many people seem to. It just doesn't happen for me.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#329

Post by arthurcolle »

missedthecue wrote: post #271
dkobia wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is the Sisyphean task of our age. We’ll push this boulder up the mountain because we have to, even if it kills us.

Do we know LLMs are the path to AGI? If they're not, we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs.

LLMs are a key piece of understanding that token sequences can trigger actions in the real world. AGI is here. You can trivially spin up a computer using agent to self improve itself to being a competent office worker

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#330

Post by boomskats »

xanderlewis wrote: post #250
plufz wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technically…? Does anyone here believe that the EU and Europe is the same thing? Would you find it weird if someone said that a Norwegian company was in Europe?

Many people certainly seem to! And it annoys me. I wasn’t talking about the EU, though. I was just commenting on the fact that in the UK, ‘Europe’ generally means ‘continental Europe’. > Would you find it weird if someone said that a Norwegian company was in Europe? I’d find it weird if a European did. But from Americans it’s to be expected.

> I was just commenting on the fact that in the UK, ‘Europe’ generally means ‘continental Europe’.

It really depends on who you're speaking to.

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