Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#321

Post by tsimionescu » Sat, Jun 15, 2024, 4:43 PM UTC

maxlin wrote: post #292

tsimionescu wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It's only a matter of time" means nothing. It was only a matter of time in Cesar's age before we got supercomputers and planes. Tesla is near the bottom of the pack on self-driving tech, with no real hopes of going beyond the level 2 self-driving of FSD, which is objectively worse than just driving yourself. There are already multiple companies with either actual self-driving fleets (e.g. Waymo) or limited use cases…

"near the bottom of the pack" Are you _trying_ to make people not take you seriously? No one has the kind of tech Tesla unveiled back at Autonomy day, which is still state of the art technology wise. 100w for that much NN compute was a genius move to manage to get the talent in to build and to get early. Now that they've had more time to develop the tech, FSD is looking better than ever and in a few years Tesla will…

No, I'm looking at actual results, not the tech stack. They are the only company that is only attempting Level 2, all the others are targeting or have achieved Level 3, or above. And Tesla isn't even doing Level 2 well, from the limited data that we have (since they of course refuse to release more). Look at any video about FSD on the internet and you'll see very frequent, inexplicable errors, in common simple scenarios.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#322

Post by rayiner » Sat, Jun 15, 2024, 4:47 PM UTC

throwaway7ahgb wrote: post #269

rayiner wrote: post #246

> I’ve had a Model Y for more than 3 years now, well before Elon revealed himself as the kind of person he really is, and I’ve been happy with it Logical fallacy in the second paragraph. Doesn’t bode well.

It's almost impossible to have a rational discussion of anything Tesla now. The words Tesla and Elon bring far too much toxicity.

I struggle to understand the negative reaction to him online. I don't like him because he divorced the mother of his children and throws out pie-in-the-sky projections about his businesses. But those are forgivable sins in Silicon Valley. And even though Musk writes many checks he can't cash, it's impossible to deny that he pretty much single-handedly restarted commercial space travel and EVs as American industries. The best selling car in the world in 2023 was American, not Japanese or German or Korean. That should make up for a lot of unkept promises about FSD, etc.

At the root of the Musk hate seems to be the fact that he (loudly) doesn't subscribe to a handful of political positions that some folks have adopted as axiomatic in their moral worldview. They essentially see him as a heretic, and attack him for stuff that others get a pass on. I mean, Zuckerberg made his billions spying on everyone and destroying the mental health of teenagers. His businesses have a tiny fraction of the socially redeeming value of Musk's. But Zuck doesn't get a fraction of the hate Musk does.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#323

Post by Veserv » Sat, Jun 15, 2024, 5:08 PM UTC

drcode wrote: post #162

lucianbr wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if the guy who died when his Telsa drove under a truck would have written a similar comment the day before. What do you think? I mean this one: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2023/t...

Please stop using anecdotes and provide safety statistics in your argument, like this: https://electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2023/10/Tesla...

Please stop using intentionally falsified statistics by the manufacturer to push product. NHTSA has already stated that Tesla numbers do not even make basic attempts to make the numbers comparable.

Tesla only counts crashes with pyrotechnic deployments. NHTSA has stated this only accounts for ~18% of crashes on average [1] which can be derived from publicly available datasets. No competent statistician or scientist would miss a literal 5x underestimation that is frequently mentioned by laypeople as a source of uncompensated bias and that is easily derivable from well-known public datasets. They make no attempt to account for other less easily computable or subtle forms of bias before blasting it at the top of their lungs to convince customers to risk their lives.

That is intentional falsification meant to push product and has no place in civil society.

[1] https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-EA22002-14496.pdf

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#324

Post by thebytefairy » Sat, Jun 15, 2024, 5:47 PM UTC

blackeyeblitzar wrote: post #191

vasco wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One interesting bit is that recently Nvidia's CEO said Tesla is ahead of the other companies in the space. My opinion is also that Tesla isn't but then we have a connundrum. Is Nvidia's CEO just saying this because Waymo doesn't buy GPUs from them? > “Tesla is far ahead in self-driving cars,” Huang said in an exclusive interview with Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-ceo-says-tesla-far-ahe...

> Is Nvidia's CEO just saying this because Waymo doesn't buy GPUs from them? Waymo works in limited places and relies on a ridiculous number of sensors. Have you seen one in real life with all its equipment? Surely that makes it less advanced or at less ambitious. Assuming something malicious about Nvidia’s CEO seems like a big leap.

One is literally able to drive itself with no human. The other is advanced cruise control. This is like saying a regular plane is better than a fighter jet because it has less sensors and both can fly.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#325

Post by FireBeyond » Sat, Jun 15, 2024, 6:10 PM UTC

GOD_Over_Djinn wrote: post #310

FireBeyond wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the fanboy complains that the cop did not obey traffic laws Emergency responder (fire/paramedic) here. EVIP (Emergency Vehicle Incident Prevention) is a course that in most states, responders are required to take to operate a vehicle in "emergency mode" (i.e. lights, sirens, both). In some states it also serves as a replacement/alternate for requiring a CDL for larger vehicles. In "emergency mode", the vehicle, bas…

Interesting info. Given this, I’m surprised that the cop that killed Jahnavi Kandula while going 74 in a 25 did not experience any consequences https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jaahnavi_Kandula

Coziness of cops to DAs and prosecutors, most likely:

> King County Prosecutor's Office decided against filing criminal charges against Dave. Manion stated that the criminal review did not turn up enough evidence to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Dave had acted with recklessness or criminal negligence, as required under Washington State law. The decision drew widespread criticism from communities in India and the US.

That is the criminal side. To the earlier point on liability or protection therefrom:

> The Kandula family declared their intent to pursue civil actions against Dave and the Seattle Police Department.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#326

Post by asddubs » Sat, Jun 15, 2024, 6:13 PM UTC

michelsedgh wrote: post #28

asddubs wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's because people don't want to come off as endorsing elon musk/distance themselves from his weirder fans. I'll say though, 3 years ago is well after he called that one rescue diver a pedo so I don't know if the opening statement totally holds. Not that I really care that much.

[flagged]

I think people did, to some extent. "Not an apple fanboy, but..." is a sentence i've heard more than once. But apple's figurehead never made as much of a habit as acting publicly obnoxious, not even during the steve jobs days

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#327

Post by yreg » Sat, Jun 15, 2024, 6:15 PM UTC

schmuelio wrote: post #245

drcode wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't dispute that people get used to driving, but I think arguing that "driving" requires the same amount of effort as "not driving" is a more specious claim

> I think arguing that "driving" requires the same amount of effort as "not driving" is a more specious claim It's really not, the human brain is _really_ good at abstracting. In pretty much exactly the same way you don't have to pay attention to balancing to walk, your brain learns to do the same thing for cycling and driving. It abstracts the mechanics of the car (e.g. turning the wheel to turn left/right) and sort…

Do you use cruise control?

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#328

Post by FireBeyond » Sat, Jun 15, 2024, 6:35 PM UTC

DennisP wrote: post #165

deng wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, what is also important is that in many cities you often need to drive with a bit of... let's say "confidence", otherwise you will never leave your current spot. When you try to enter a busy street, you sometimes JUST NEED TO GO, trusting the oncoming traffic will slow down if needed. Sometimes a nice person will flash headlights to let you know it's OK, but I'm pretty sure FSD will not be able to notice that...…

FSD already understands some human gestures, and it learns this stuff by seeing how human drivers do things. Understanding a headlight flash doesn't seem like a big ask. And recently, the biggest complain from FSD users was that it drove a little too aggressively. Because it copies human drivers, FSD actually was doing slow rolling stops for a while. Then people freaked out and pretended that was super unsafe, and th…

Neither of those things were "learned adaptations" from human driving, and this is one of the biggest fallacies around FSD. People letting their FSD do stupid things and only intervening at the last moment (if at all) to let it learn from its mistakes.

That it might use the direction of the car in front of it as a guidance track doesn't mean it understood the human gestures of the cop telling it to do that. Or in a concert parking lot where an attendant might be doing things like alternating cars to the left and right lots.

> Because it copies human drivers, FSD actually was doing slow rolling stops for a while.

No, this was programmed behavior, with an interface/config setting, to do a "rolling stop". People "freaked out" because Tesla was literally allowing the car to perform illegal traffic infractions, and if they'd do it for stop signs, what else would they do it for?

But none of this is some Tesla "swarm" learning to do rolling stops. There is no adaptive learning happening. This is all trained from static models according to parameters from Tesla.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#329

Post by FireBeyond » Sat, Jun 15, 2024, 6:35 PM UTC

trogdor wrote: post #311

FireBeyond wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the fanboy complains that the cop did not obey traffic laws Emergency responder (fire/paramedic) here. EVIP (Emergency Vehicle Incident Prevention) is a course that in most states, responders are required to take to operate a vehicle in "emergency mode" (i.e. lights, sirens, both). In some states it also serves as a replacement/alternate for requiring a CDL for larger vehicles. In "emergency mode", the vehicle, bas…

>While in emergency mode, the driver of the emergency vehicle is -presumptively liable- for ANY incident that occurs, unless it can be demonstrated otherwise (and even then there is still likely to be contributory liability). This liability is personal and organizational (i.e. I can be personally sued if I hit someone in my ambulance, even going code 3). I think you are mistaken. Please cite your sources. Drivers of…

In your state, 21056 basically takes away all of the protections, when you read it as such.

"You may operate a vehicle outside of normal traffic law"... "not relieved from a duty to drive with due regard for the safety", means that if a court rules that your driving didn't meet "due regard" standards, well, now you are "not protected from the consequences".

While I am not an expert personally, in Washington, all EVIP courses must be approved and accredited by the Washington State Patrol.

RCW 46.61.035 states much similar:

> (4) The foregoing provisions shall not relieve the driver of an authorized emergency vehicle from the duty to drive with due regard for the safety of all persons, nor shall such provisions protect the driver from the consequences of his or her reckless disregard for the safety of others.

There is also no specification in the RCW regarding "no liability".

You might think 'reckless' is a good escape clause. "Just don't drive recklessly". Problem is even if you slow from 60mph to 20mph (school zone speed) to go through a red light... going through a red light at 20mph would generally be considered a reckless act. (Most departments will typically expect that you come to a complete stop until you are able to "clear" the intersection visually.)

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#330

Post by croes » Sat, Jun 15, 2024, 6:40 PM UTC

throwaway7ahgb wrote: post #282

croes wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not the same. Elon thinks if he gets the right training data he gets rid of the dangerous 1% of errors. But that is not the case if it's a general problem of the used AI.

What are you using for "AI"? AI is a buzzword, unless you know specifically how they are using it, you can't make this claim. Many marketing teams are just using AI when it is really ML doing the work, or it could be both.

There is no claim just a fact.

More data won't help if the problem is the tools as such.

Grandparent said the hard part is getting rid of the last 1%, parent claimed Elon said the dame when he said 99.99% of the trait data is useless.

But it's not the same. Elon thinks he just needs the right data to solve the problem but it could be impossible even if he gets the data because of the limitations of the used type of AI.

If you need a screwdriver but only have a hammer more nails won't help.

AI is here used by me as an umbrella term for computer decision systems.