Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

today.oregonstate.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

321–330 of 504 posts

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#321

Post by deciplex »

exoverito wrote: post #312
silverquiet wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be curious to see the science on enhanced plant growth; my understanding is that the benefits of increased CO2 fade very quickly. I believe we can already see plant pores evolving to be smaller as they were in previous times when the Earth had greater CO2 levels. About the only thing that gives me hope is SRM, but it's a half-assed solution at best. A world with 800ppm CO2 and a dimmed sun via aerosols is not the…

The optimal CO2 level for plant growth is between 800 and 1000 ppm, as observed within greenhouses. https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/... There is no perfect solution. One of the benefits of stratospheric aerosols is that they only stay suspended for 10 years or so, reducing the risk of long term effects. They are also an exceptionally cheap strategy, on the order of a few billion a year to…

> they only stay suspended for 10 years or so

And then what happens? Earnest question.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#322

Post by _yb2s »

feoren wrote: post #316
_yb2s wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of how realistic you think AGI risk is, it’s not marketing hype- it has been a human fear and central in scifi for a long time. Movies like 2001, Terminator, and the Matrix were hugely popular long before AI was profitable. Arguably ancient myths about golems and genies are essentially the same fear and concept. AI companies are afraid of public fear over AI as it might lead to regulating them out of exist…

Spiders have been a human fear for two million years, but I'm not too worried about them causing our downfall as a species. Just because we're afraid of AI doesn't mean it's actually worth fearing.

Yes, even if something is worth fearing, it's not simply because people are afraid of it already. Did something I write make you think I was arguing otherwise?

As an aside, I would argue that this deep rooted human fear of AI is related to the general ancient fear of humans being wiped out by other bands of more technologically advanced humans. Which for most of human history has been the single biggest danger by far.

People also have deep instinctual fears of things like spiders and snakes for the same reason- they were serious hazards in the environment where humans evolved.

One could say we have evolved these instincts to fear them, because they are worth fearing... not the other way around.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#323

Post by iamthirsty »

feoren wrote: post #316
_yb2s wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of how realistic you think AGI risk is, it’s not marketing hype- it has been a human fear and central in scifi for a long time. Movies like 2001, Terminator, and the Matrix were hugely popular long before AI was profitable. Arguably ancient myths about golems and genies are essentially the same fear and concept. AI companies are afraid of public fear over AI as it might lead to regulating them out of exist…

Spiders have been a human fear for two million years, but I'm not too worried about them causing our downfall as a species. Just because we're afraid of AI doesn't mean it's actually worth fearing.

Spiders don't, won't and couldn't control almost all aspects of human life.

This is a false equivalence.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#324

Post by mhardcastle »

daveguy wrote: post #192
_yb2s wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of how realistic you think AGI risk is, it’s not marketing hype- it has been a human fear and central in scifi for a long time. Movies like 2001, Terminator, and the Matrix were hugely popular long before AI was profitable. Arguably ancient myths about golems and genies are essentially the same fear and concept. AI companies are afraid of public fear over AI as it might lead to regulating them out of exist…

Fear of AGI is very real. But our proximity to AGI is marketing hype. In terms of existential crisis #2 and #3 are serious and already worth investing in mitigation. But #1 (AGI) is science fiction.

In 2022, the median ML researcher surveyed thought that there is a 5% or 10% chance of AI leading to "human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species," depending on how the question was asked.

https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/#...

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#325

Post by jpadkins »

belter wrote: post #3

We are in the multilayered race between - The risk of the rise of AGI - The risk and madness of Nuclear conflict - The risk of runaway Climate change My money is on Mother Gaia. She will brutally and swiftly discipline her puppies.

1) Is real but will have net positive impact on humanity (of course there will be losers, but like most new technologies humans will have more for less effort)

2) It is real but unlikely to end humanity. Much more likely to create large areas that are unlivable, but a lot of work has gone into avoiding world ending scenarios.

3) Is mostly hype. Doom predictions in the last 20 years on this topic have been very wrong. The climate is always changing, and humans will have to adapt as always (+1 to 2C increase over 100 years is not world ending). The long term problem will be prevented by a) running out of cheap carbon based energy b) geo-engineering c) rise of cheaper non carbon based energy (related to a).

Asteroid impact or pandemic / virus / man-made bioweapon are all higher probability humanity ending risk IMHO. Not enough thought & energy are put into those scenarios.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#326

Post by ballenf »

feoren wrote: post #316
_yb2s wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of how realistic you think AGI risk is, it’s not marketing hype- it has been a human fear and central in scifi for a long time. Movies like 2001, Terminator, and the Matrix were hugely popular long before AI was profitable. Arguably ancient myths about golems and genies are essentially the same fear and concept. AI companies are afraid of public fear over AI as it might lead to regulating them out of exist…

Spiders have been a human fear for two million years, but I'm not too worried about them causing our downfall as a species. Just because we're afraid of AI doesn't mean it's actually worth fearing.

For sure, it's the locusts that I'm worried about.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#327

Post by silverquiet »

exoverito wrote: post #312
silverquiet wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be curious to see the science on enhanced plant growth; my understanding is that the benefits of increased CO2 fade very quickly. I believe we can already see plant pores evolving to be smaller as they were in previous times when the Earth had greater CO2 levels. About the only thing that gives me hope is SRM, but it's a half-assed solution at best. A world with 800ppm CO2 and a dimmed sun via aerosols is not the…

The optimal CO2 level for plant growth is between 800 and 1000 ppm, as observed within greenhouses. https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/... There is no perfect solution. One of the benefits of stratospheric aerosols is that they only stay suspended for 10 years or so, reducing the risk of long term effects. They are also an exceptionally cheap strategy, on the order of a few billion a year to…

Seems plausible at least, and you are of course correct about the world; the CO2 level of the atmosphere when I was born was well below 400 and we'll not see that again as long as I live. That's what I tell those who respond viscerally to the idea of messing about with the atmosphere purposefully - we are already altering it regardless.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#328

Post by amanaplanacanal »

hellojesus wrote: post #152
14 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely not the solution. Ending capitalism for some other form of economy is the only way in my opinion. Not that I don’t think people should be rewarded for the products and services they offer just that the incentive to make cheap shit and sell an upgrade every year is definitely harmful to our earth. The problem I see is I don’t know what type of economic solution there is that would fit.

I have yet to hear of an economic model that humans have discovered which is better than free market capitalism. The issue isn't the cheap junk; it's the demand for the cheap junk. Things would be far more sustainable if people focused on reducing their consumption habbits, as producers would be run out of business.

The free market is probably the best we are going to get, but we need to address some of its known failure modes: externalities, monopolies, and the imbalance of power between employers and employees.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#329

Post by nullstyle »

_yb2s wrote: post #306
daveguy wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fear of AGI is very real. But our proximity to AGI is marketing hype. In terms of existential crisis #2 and #3 are serious and already worth investing in mitigation. But #1 (AGI) is science fiction.

Fiction is much more than just entertainment... science fiction has been pivotal in both shaping and preparing our society for changes caused by technology. Much of the best science fiction has been so prescient that it's hard for modern audiences to even understand that these things were written before the world was like this. When I share a lot of old sci-fi with my young son, he finds it unremarkable, as they seem…

Out of curiosity, could you recommend any Science Fiction written before the nuclear age that talks about nuclear proliferation? Or to take something from our present world, what Science Fiction stories would you recommend to talk about the effect of drone tech on trade and shipping?

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#330

Post by jonwinstanley »

Night_Thastus wrote: post #232
belter wrote: post #3

We are in the multilayered race between - The risk of the rise of AGI - The risk and madness of Nuclear conflict - The risk of runaway Climate change My money is on Mother Gaia. She will brutally and swiftly discipline her puppies.

#1 isn't happening anytime soon, nothing we have is on a path in that direction. #2 people always worry about, but it's almost certainly not going to happen - insane dictators or no. Even in much worse scenarios we avoided it. #3 Real, but slow. I think we'll see some coastal communities devastated over the course of the next ~50 years, but the rest of the world will adapt and/or sweep it under the rug as best they c…

Increase of both droughts and floods mean we have issues inland too
Post reply on HN