Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, if we wanted to really get in to the details, the Earth is releasing more energy than it receives from the sun simply because it is also cooling. The core grows by about a few mm a year because of this, IIRC. With a brief, 60 million year time frame exception during the Carboniferous, though, the energy stored in life processes is a wash. Assembly and decay are a net balance, and life itself is a strong driver…
To nitpick your nitpick, the earth radiates more energy than it receives because it is very radioactive. And because it is cooling.
Tidal energy is not renewable
321–330 of 350 posts
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#322Earlier quoted context omitted.
In that link: > The Earth's rotational kinetic energy is about 10²9 J, and the world uses something like 10²² J/year, so you could power the entire world for millions of years before you'd run out of rotational energy. (my phone somehow has a ² but not a ^9; the first number is supposed to be 1e29)
Here are some Unicode exponents for your future needs: ⁰¹²³⁴⁵⁶⁷⁸⁹
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#323Earlier quoted context omitted.
One problem with "grow quickly, then switch", is that it often leads to high-growth institutions, factions, ideologies, and infrastructure. Countries which grow quickly bake those assumptions into financial, industrial, economic, and political policies. They create companies, regulatory bodies, and financial systems which are predicated on growth. They create economic ideology and the mechanisms for promulgating it w…
I don't deny that it's likely an exceedingly had thing to do, to transition, and that it's likely harder the longer you wait, just that when you're dealing with exponential growth that opting out too early is likely disastrous in it's own way. I think it's a mistake to assume stability in nations and a strong self governing community between them can be assumed at all points in the future, especially if there is some…
To that extent, "rapid growth" seems largely a matter of "reaching your ultimate potential earlier". And the post-rapid-growth phase turns out to have ... interesting challenges: environment, politics, demographics, and more, many of which emerge after sheer growth alone can no longer paper over conflicts or issues which had been present all along.
There's also of course the argument that GDP doesn't measure actual net wealth or common weal, which is a criticism that dates back to the origins of GDP/GNP, and even its creator, Simon Kuznets. There are numerous alternative measures that are proposed. One aspect I've not seen much addressed is that GDP is largely a tool for managing macroeconomic monetary dynamics, that is, as total monetary exchange grows or shrinks, then the monetary base itself must be adjusted, which is the remit of central banks. Those banks can create or destroy money at will (pursuant to policy goals and prime directives), because money itself is not wealth. The knock-on effects are felt profoundly in asset markets, that is, goods or securities whose principle or significant function is to serve as an inflation-resistant store of wealth: stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, collectables (art, wine, cars, etc.), and the like. Asset value inflation is not itself economic productivity. It may reflect economic productivity (that's at least the fig leaf covering stock markets), but far more often, asset inflation simply follows national and global monetary policy, most especially rising in times of loose money or easy loans (largely equivalent terms). John Kenneth Galbraith's The Great Crash 1929 remains an excellent post mortem of one such event. To that extent, measuring GDP growth alone provides distorted view of actual wealth growth, both at the level of individuals (say, median, bottom quintile), and of net national power and stability, though of course how distorted is the stuff of legendary disagreements.
There is a history of countries burning through growth potential with immense rapidity, most especially in the case of natural resources extraction. Instability in the Levant following the mid-2000s has been tied to loss of net-exporter status among oil producers (Syria, Egypt, Libya), as well as food scarcity through both climate-related crop shortages and reduced imports as oil revenues decline. One of the more spectacular cases is the Pacific island nation of Nauru, which underwent a birdshit apocalypse after (briefly) highlighting as the world's richest nation (per capita) after what proved to be a highly limited resource reached its limits. https://www.nytimes.com/1995/12/10/world/a-pacific-island-na...>
The country's recovered somewhat by entering into the hospitality business. That is, it runs internment camps for the refugees Australia would prefer to pretend don't exist and sends elsewhere: https://devpolicy.org/nauru-riches-to-rags-to-riches-2021041...>
To the extent that contemporary economies run on the basis of extraction (petroleum, coal, natural gas, minerals, groundwater, topsoil) and sink exhaustion (the ozone layer, heavy metal contamination, greenhouse gasses, plastics and endocrine disruptors, habitat and species disruption, ...), none of which are costed into either market transactions or national wealth/income statistics ... well, we're all on busses headed toward various cliffs, some nearer, some further.
One option is to expend resources on things which presently have relatively low value but would be exceedingly useful in a post-carbon / post-collapse society. That includes basic skills, sustainable practices, sustainable infrastructure, and the social patterns which can effectively utilise these. Keep in mind that this runs directly contrary to market signalling as markets have an overwhelming present-bias in assigning values, as anyone caught holding the bag after a crash can tell you. Potential future utility simply isn't considered, and in general, non-market mechanisms seem to be required to encourage such investments.
(There are other systems which similarly fail to consider long-term value, and it's long been a favourite trope to note the immense ecological contamination and pollution which occurred in the Soviet bloc. However similar desecration was seen both earlier and simultaneously under market systems ... both are poor at delivering ecological equity. Ultimate reforms have tended to emerge through social movements, legislation, and legal recourse, none of which are market-based.)
My final argument is that much of the advantages attributed to economic growth can be had at relatively low levels of same. That is, equity and distribution count for far more than total gross production or consumption. Invest in infrastructure, healthcare (with a strong emphasis on basic access and preventive measures rather than heroic interventions), education, affordable housing, social safety nets, and sustainable development of transport, built infrastructure (at individual building, community, regional and national levels), resource preservation and enhancement (e.g., water, soil, forest, and wildlands cultivation), actual productivity, mitigation of undesired consequences, and the like, and ... I think you might see a path which whilst it might not register on mainstream metrics is actually preferable over the long run.
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#324Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't deny that it's likely an exceedingly had thing to do, to transition, and that it's likely harder the longer you wait, just that when you're dealing with exponential growth that opting out too early is likely disastrous in it's own way. I think it's a mistake to assume stability in nations and a strong self governing community between them can be assumed at all points in the future, especially if there is some…
One of the counterarguments to exponential growth, particularly in the context of limits, is that growth rises to some constraint . What the country with a higher nominal GDP growth rate does is ... hit that limit sooner rather than later. We've seen countries go through tremendous growth spurts: the UK ~1800 -- 1914; the US ~1870--1970; post-WWII Japan 1945--1990; the "Asian Tigers" of South Korea (particularly cont…
Ophuls's political-ecological approach is being carried on by Thomas Homer-Dixon: https://homerdixon.com/writing/>
There are other authors: Bill McKibben's Eaarth (sic), Joel Magnusonn's The Approaching Great Transformation, the book Natural Capitalism by Paul Hawken, Amory Lovins, and L. Hunter Lovins, all of which I have to hand. Vaclav Smil has written his own damned library on resources and sustainability from a technical perspective, largely looking backwards though with some forward-looking elements. I particularly recommend Energy in World History (1992, 2019) and Energy and Civilization (2017). Energy Transitions (2016) tackles the specific question of converting to a sustainable-energy path: . And there's a long list of other Smil publications.
Kate Rayworth's Doughnut Economics is another prescriptive work looking at ways forward. https://www.kateraworth.com/>
The original Limits to Growth (Meadows, Meadows, Randers, & Behrens) remains relevant, and is freely available online: https://donellameadows.org/the-limits-to-growth-now-availabl...>. I strongly recommend reading primary sources over hot takes, interpretations, and commentaries. It's also helpful to remember that LtG served not as a prescription but as an alarm: there's a clear problem and we've got to wake up to it. Sadly, more than 50 years onward, that alarm continues to be ignored by many (including within this thread).
The now-defunct Worldwatch Institute published an annual State of the World publication which was an anthology of articles on sustainability generally, from 1984--2017, and give an excellent sense of the breadth and progress of thinking on these topics. Those are mostly available via the Internet Archive: https://archive.org/search?query=worldwatch+institute+state+...>
Worldwatch's founder, Lester R. Brown, has written numerous books, his latest covers this topic, The Great Transition: Shifting from Fossil Fuels to Solar and Wind Energy http://www.earth-policy.org/press_room/C68/market_forces_dri...>
Looking at the energy picture alone, there's David MacKay's Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air, which breaks down the technical picture, with a focus on Britain though applicable elsewhere, clearly and soberly. Freely available online: http://www.withouthotair.com/>
That's just skimming the top of a huge literature. There are a tremendous number of different viewpoints, of topics and approaches, and of course disagreement. Contrary to the assertions of some, however, there are specific and actionable recommendations to be found. Looking into the bibliographies and notes of the works listed should launch you further in whatever direction you care to explore.
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#325Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean you're doing that right now. You seem to believe we can't have infinite growth. Okay...and? Do you have anything more to add other then a mathematical reductio ad absurdum talking about 1000 year timespans? What tangible actions and economic model do you believe this should inform in the next 5 to 10 years, which you as a citizen of a democracy have some role in choosing and advocating for?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37386474 > Again: I have sources. You? I'm reading this as you don't.
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#326Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you want to define growth as cash, then sure. If you want to define it by tangible output, then not so much.
The economy is measured in money.
Money is a measure of wealth, it is not wealth itself. Much as a ruler is a measure of length, not length itself.
The ability to measure 1,000 km does not equate to the capacity to travel 1,000 km.
The ability to measure a hectare of land does not equate to the possession of a hectare of land.
The ability to measure a year's worth of labour productivity, or industrial output, does not equate to the realisation of a year's worth of productivity.
And financial units absent the goods and services that they can access ... are worthless.
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#327Earlier quoted context omitted.
The point is that there's no such thing as a (meaningful) good or service that doesn't require some amount of a tangible and finite physical resource - human time, if nothing else. The economist's position - and yours, apparently - is that "growth", whatever it is, can be sustained literally infinitely , on a finite rock amongst a finite group of hairless apes where nothing about the actual situation is infinite. So…
Be careful here - the economist's position about a finite world was something the physicist picked. The economist agreed to it early on, probably to try and seem agreeable, but it's not a reasonable concession to make. Space exists, we put things there today, presumably will put more things there in future. So there is no finite world. But let's make the same assumption for a moment. For economic growth [of wealth] t…
2) You've just relabeled the discussion from "wealth" to "productivity". In any case, scoring some efficiency wins here and there is once again a game with physics-imposed limits.
I repeat my question: when all humans are fully fed, housed, maximally entertained and satiated, every dopamine receptor firing on all cylinders - and you can't make more humans - what exactly is there left to grow? At all, let alone exponentially?
I confess I find the notion of infinite exponential growth of anything, let alone things humans value, so patently and obviously physically unsustainable that I am deeply perturbed by these earnest efforts to defend it. I engage in the spirit one might engage Flat Eartherism, as an intellectual exercise in probing the manifestly absurd - except that this dogma apparently pervades mainstream economic thought, an observation that should terrify anyone who wants civilization to survive.
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#328Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Since nations are competing, and we're talking about exponentials here, the cost for cutting off exponential economic growth too soon is likely to become irrelevant to the future, which every nation is going to strive to avoid. I question this definition of relevance. To me, relevance is having a healthy, happy, sustainable society and culture. It's not accumulating goods and energy consumption in a self-destructiv…
It's entirely relevant when your country can't control is own future, as that will extend to its citizens. Just because we're in a relatively stable period of history with regards to one nation seeking to conquer another (somewhat bucked by Russia) doesn't mean that will necessarily persist. A well regulated and lawful country where your rights are respected both internally and internationally is a luxury of a powerf…
There's a long-standing observation that countries in which stable political, economic, and technological cultures have emerged have tended to have natural defences. The British Isles and Japanese archipelago in particular both avoided successful foreign invasion or even significant attack for nearly 1,000 years, until the 20th century.
Contemporary stability has more to do with Superpower alliances than geography, though geography still matters. The grand central-European plain had been the parade ground of invading armies since before the Mongol invaders, but today is largely peaceful, so long as one looks underneath the NATO umbrella. Ukraine suffers not only flat geography, ready river and sea access, railway infrastructure, and a long and unrespected border with Russia, but status as an unalligned state, whose prior security treaties with Russia have been abrogated.
The first four factors are common to numerous other states, it's the last which has proved critical to its history since 2014.
And such alliances don't require especially robust economic capability. Among the 31 members of Nato are wealthy states in absolute (Germany) and per-capita (Liechtenstein) terms, but also some of the poorest, notably Montenegro at 75th worldwide per capita and ranked 46 of 50 among European states in overall GDP (2023). Albania, Croatia, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Romania, and Slovakia are other states with low overall or per-capita GDP:
State GDP EU rank GDP/capita (WW)
----- ----------- ---------------
Albania: 40 101
Belgium: 12 18
Bulgaria: 26 73
Canada: n/a n/a
Croatia: 29 54
Czechia: 19 37
Denmark: 16 9
Estonia: 35 38
Finland: 18 15
France: 3 21
Germany: 1 16
Greece: 22 39
Hungary: 24 51
Iceland: 37 6
Italy: 4 25
Latvia: 34 50
Lithuania: 30 44
Luxembourg: 27 1
Montenegro: 46 75
the Netherlands: 7 12
North Macedonia: 42 92
Norway: 13 3
Poland: 10 49
Romania: 17 55
Slovakia: 25 45
Slovenia: 31 34
Spain: 6 29
Turkey: 8 53
United Kingdom: 2 22
United States: n/a n/a
Notes:- I've listed the North American members, but omitted their GDP as these are not European states.)
- EU rank is 1--50 inclusive.
- GDP/capita rank is 1--134 within Europe, based on global IMF rankings of 192 states worldwide.
Sources:
- GDP overall: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_in_Eu...>
- GDP/capita: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_in_Eu...>
Takeaway: Alliances trump GDP or per-capita income.
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#329Earlier quoted context omitted.
Growth rates are expressed as percentages. The underlying value, GDP, is measured in money.
Yes, but I'm trying to tell you that doesn't matter. GDP is measured in money, but growth is measured as a percentage so it's unitless.
That monetary equivalence equates to real purchasing power over goods and services. Nominal changes in currency values (whether foreign-exchange or inflation/deflation) are pencilled out in this way.
And the GDP growth that is measured is as a percentage in terms of those constant currency units. Which, again, reflect actual capacity to purchase material goods or the product of energetic effort.
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#330Earlier quoted context omitted.
The lesson that constant percentage (that is, exponential) growth cannot continue endlessly is the fundamental message behind the concept of Limits to Growth. That is, there exist intractable limits to growth , and that no matter how convenient it may be to pretend otherwise, humans ignore this fact at their extreme peril. Long-term ongoing economic growth, expressed as a constant percentage, is baked in to most curr…
it is possible to have exponential growth with a brief period of financial crash/recession, when prices reset to previous bottoms and exponential growth continues (boom&bust cycle). so far it has been the case with human economics across all countries/economies. yes some shareholders will be zeroed out during recession, but others will continue on the growth journey
It's common in finance and population ecology. See, e.g., lynx-hare population dynamics.