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Shell admits 1.5C climate goal means immediate end to fossil fuel growth

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Re: Shell admits 1.5C climate goal means immediate end to fossil fuel growth

#321
post #3

I’m not sure what’s the point of focusing on 1.5C anymore. I think the writing on the wall is pretty clear that we’re going to double that at least. Barring any miracle in carbon sequestration technology anyway. I hope we get a miracle.

Our kids, who will shoulder far more of the effects of this than us, didn't get to choose this. This is their inheritance, generations of neglect for the environment and rampant profiteering culminating in a climate catastrophe.

How is it "generations of neglect" if we didn't even really know about global warming until the 80s? Maybe you can label the last decade or two as reckless but hard for me to get on board with such a long time scale when broad awareness is so recent.

Re: Shell admits 1.5C climate goal means immediate end to fossil fuel growth

#322
post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China is doing more to combat global warming than is any other nation What? The west is working hard at lowering it's emissions, but all that work is getting undone because China's emissions aren't slowing down. Coal is incredibly cheap when there's no carbon tax or emission standards. One of the many reasons it's cheaper to manufacture in China and why North Americans and Europeans can't compete [0]. Comparing the…

Your comparison between China and US from 1973 to now is fundamentally wrong. In 1970s, US already was a developed country, while China was barely rising from poverty. It's unfair when the western countries demand lowering emissions from the third world. West was able to enjoy unlimited carbon emissions for years, while the third world was mostly agricultural and had poorly developed economies. Now, when other countr…

> Now, when other countries undergo the same economic transformations US had long time ago

Here's the thing: they don't have to make all the same mistakes we made. Wind and solar was science fiction in the 70's and is economically feasible today yet China choose to go all-in with the dirtiest coal on the planet.

Re: Shell admits 1.5C climate goal means immediate end to fossil fuel growth

#323
post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comparison between China and US from 1973 to now is fundamentally wrong. In 1970s, US already was a developed country, while China was barely rising from poverty. It's unfair when the western countries demand lowering emissions from the third world. West was able to enjoy unlimited carbon emissions for years, while the third world was mostly agricultural and had poorly developed economies. Now, when other countr…

> Now, when other countries undergo the same economic transformations US had long time ago Here's the thing: they don't have to make all the same mistakes we made. Wind and solar was science fiction in the 70's and is economically feasible today yet China choose to go all-in with the dirtiest coal on the planet.

Uhm, if you don’t think China is investing heavily in solar and wind generation, then you are in for a very big surprise. It’s just that with NG going up so much recently, they are leaning on coal heavily again so their economy doesn’t crash, long term they have a good direction set with renewables, better probably than the USA.

And it’s all due to economic self interest and survival that they are doing renewables so aggressively, it has nothing to do with perceived fairness or whatever.

Re: Shell admits 1.5C climate goal means immediate end to fossil fuel growth

#324
post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is misinformation. We absolutely cannot meet our needs with other clean energy sources until we figure out how to deliver reliable, economical base load power. There are a variety of proposals for grid scale energy storage but so far none have been proven to work at scale . We certainly can't build enough batteries to keep industrial customers running through several days of minimal sunshine and wind. So the rea…

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Re: Shell admits 1.5C climate goal means immediate end to fossil fuel growth

#325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree we will hit the 1.5 degrees for sure. There's a lot of inertia in climate change anyway. Even if we stop tomorrow it will still continue to rise for years. But I don't agree we're all going to die. It's not a human extinction type problem. There will still be habitable places and some places will become more habitable (the Russians even had a crazy plan in the 60s to dam the Bering strait and melt the Arctic…

> But I don't agree we're all going to die. It's not a human extinction type problem. There will still be habitable places and some places will become more habitable (the Russians even had a crazy plan in the 60s to dam the Bering strait and melt the Arctic with nukes to make Siberia more habitable.... :X ) It is a "human extinction type problem" (and likely most if not all life on Earth) … not necessarily directly k…

I agree that climate change will bring about human suffering far beyond anything most people envision. But I am mostly confident that extinction is not in the cards. Nukes could only erase a few thousand square miles, not enough to kill a majority of humans much less all of them. Starvation and collapse would kill many more, but still far from extinction.

If you mean novel bioweapons then I can see that being a problem.

Re: Shell admits 1.5C climate goal means immediate end to fossil fuel growth

#326
It's certainly an improvement that now they speak with partial evidence and admittance, compared to paying for "climate change hoax" campaigning.

In context, the heating we had now already caused massive destruction in polar, in whales, in shallow sea, in mosquitos, in plagues, in desertification. Thus any decrease is welcome. We are not having quota to spare. We're trying to pay a subprime mortgage made before.

Kudos to Shell for admitting that, but the question is how in the world they are able to function and sell stuff? Grid company can switch to renewable comfortably, but Shell found its way in digging ground.

I guess they at least will make the shift to natural gas as that stuff ain't that terrible compared to petroleum, and they can still sell petroleum for plastic.

Re: Shell admits 1.5C climate goal means immediate end to fossil fuel growth

#327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I don't agree we're all going to die. It's not a human extinction type problem. There will still be habitable places and some places will become more habitable (the Russians even had a crazy plan in the 60s to dam the Bering strait and melt the Arctic with nukes to make Siberia more habitable.... :X ) It is a "human extinction type problem" (and likely most if not all life on Earth) … not necessarily directly k…

I agree that climate change will bring about human suffering far beyond anything most people envision. But I am mostly confident that extinction is not in the cards. Nukes could only erase a few thousand square miles, not enough to kill a majority of humans much less all of them. Starvation and collapse would kill many more, but still far from extinction. If you mean novel bioweapons then I can see that being a probl…

For the record, when I stated: “We are all going to die!” I meant it as a hyperbole. I actually don’t believe a literal total extinction of the human species is a likely scenario (even in a +4° horror scenario; even with a nuclear holocaust on top of it). “We are all going to die” is more of a you and me are personally very likely to die because of climate inaction, or at the very least, our lives will suffer, and there is nothing we can do about it.

Re: Shell admits 1.5C climate goal means immediate end to fossil fuel growth

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>[2] Please note that there's nothing wrong with cars existing, the main problem is cars being a hard requirement (government mandate really) for every single thing you do in your life. I'm not really sure what you mean by "government mandate" in this context. I've lived for more than half a century and have never owned a car or attempted to purchase one. In all that time, no one (affiliated with a government or not)…

Sure I can take a stab at it. For the vast majority of America in order to participate in life you have to drive a car somewhere to do something. So this could be driving to get a prescription filled, it could be going to school, to work, etc. The way the government "mandates" it is by only building additional car-only infrastructure (highways, etc.) and using zoning policies that dictate that SFH and big-box retaile…

>While the government may not explicitly state that "you must use cars" if you take a look at state transportation department budgets, for example, you'll see that the funding is all for cars. We could split hairs and say it's not a "mandate" but I think it is effectively a mandate and if you asked, most politicians would say something like "Americans love their cars and freedom" which means "we support car-only infrastructure".

Thanks for putting a finer point on that. As an American who lives in NYC, but has traveled/lived all over the US, your assessment is spot on.

Except for the "mandate" part (at least IMHO). Which, I argue, isn't splitting hairs at all.

I say that because the activities of state and local governments are, in fact, what the people they represent want. If it were not, those folks wouldn't have been elected in the first place.

And that's especially true for local governments, where a couple dozen folks dedicated to making something happen can usually do so. That's also true (generally with a few more folks involved) for state governments.

As such, those governments are, in fact, executing the will of their constituencies. So, in my mind, that's not a "mandate" (An authoritative command or instruction)[0] by the government, but a mandate (A command or authorization given by a political electorate to the winner of an election)[0] from the folks those governments represent.

So the car culture is, as wasteful as it may be, what the citizens of such towns/cities/counties/states have demanded (or at least voted for) and not some "edict from on high," which is the sense I got from both your comments around this. If my understanding is mistaken, my apologies.

[0] https://www.wordnik.com/words/mandate

Re: Shell admits 1.5C climate goal means immediate end to fossil fuel growth

#329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I really hope you have property near a cost, any cost.

It has been, perfectly fine. I've seen it all, starting with global cooling in the 70s, then warming, then cooling, then change. It's a convenient lie to get many people to have less kids which arguably is a good thing.

If you look at the ice, the trend is not quite evident. It comes and goes https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-06/this-wint...

Worry more about the solar minimum in 2030, take your precautions.

Re: Shell admits 1.5C climate goal means immediate end to fossil fuel growth

#330
post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we crash the economy then we will lose the surplus capacity to address climate change, and people will keep burning fossil fuels just to survive. Concerns about a 1.5 °C (or whatever number) goal several decades in the future are meaningless if you don't have a way to get to work and your home is freezing cold today .

> If we crash the economy You're assuming that a drastic response to stop climate change will crash the economy more than climate change itself will, which is a highly dubious proposition given that many countries (e.g. Denmark) are case studies that show the feasibility and relative ease of the transition (relative to climate change itself).

Denmark hasn't done much significant about climate change. Like many other wealthy countries their efforts have been more about symbolism and political virtue signaling without addressing the core issues or making any drastic changes. Much of their food, energy, and other products is still produced using fossil fuels in foreign countries and then imported.

To be clear, I think that every country should do more and something is better than nothing. But let's not fool ourselves into thinking that the minor changes made by Denmark are sufficient, or that they could even be replicated in most other countries. Our physical stuff still has to be made somewhere.

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