I wish GPT4 had never happened • Hacker News Board

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#321

Post by eropple » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:27 PM UTC

celestialcheese wrote: post #307

eropple wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? No really: why? Businesses are profit-seeking entities. Why not just fire nine people? You save money . (Yes, this could be a really stupid decision for the company in question. I agree with you. I'm not saying what should happen. I'm saying what will happen, and that that is really bad.)

Because information curated by an AI with validation by a subject matter expert is worth significantly more than that which was done without a human in the loop. There's no determinism with these systems, and from experience with GPT-4 doing classification tasks, it'll do everything exactly right until it doesn't. If it's like many businesses in the classification world, they aren't lacking for work, so it's more lik…

90% quality for 10% the price means that most decisionmakers will--and they don't need to collude to do this--take that and pocket the difference.

Why would 50% for 0.1% be different? 30% for 0.01%?

This is the enshittification spiral to which I refer.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#322

Post by starkd » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:27 PM UTC

jzb wrote: post #60

Aaargh20318 wrote: post #29

The big oversight here is that Priya does not want a job , what Priya wants is an income . The point of life is not working, the point of life is to enjoy it. We should strive to eliminate as many jobs as we possibly can, the less we have to work the better it is. To make this possible we need to find a way to a new system that doesn't directly link labour with income .

That would be great. It’s also not going to happen without a massive uprising. The people profiting off automation have zero intent of sharing the wealth and every intent of hoarding it.

When has an uprising (or revolution) been anything other than a disordered mob? I wouldn't expect any such transition to be orderly and well-planned. It will be reactionary in order to quell the chaos.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#323

Post by birdyrooster » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:27 PM UTC

transcoderx wrote: post #175

pavel_lishin wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? > Though some people in some companies might be laid…

How much do you think you would have had to pay for an iPhone 200 years ago? Are you sure society hasn't benefitted from productivity increases?

People are ditching their phones which to me proves their value isn't universal and probably isn't that great of a benefit to anyone other than business.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#324

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:27 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #283

mort96 wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? The extra value has gone to enrich the oligarchs rather than to the people. Maybe that should change.

How do you deprive an oligarch of their ill gotten wealth without violence?

[deleted]

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#325

Post by nashashmi » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:27 PM UTC

logicalmonster wrote: post #138

1) Chaudry's article is amazing in its lack of creative thinking. If people like Priya can be ~10 times more productive wielding some AI tools, that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. Though some people in some companies might be laid off, it doesn't necessarily mean that more people will be laid off than new jobs…

Yeah but the new graduates are not equipped to enhance their work with AI (independently). The new graduates have already graduated through a curriculum based on self analysis and thought. AI will test their skills and make them obsolete. They are most at risk of structural unemployment.

The advent of the Internet did the same for those who graduated right before 2000. These graduates did not have skills needed to work with the Internet. And often found themselves going back to school to learn a new trade.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#326

Post by teucris » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:27 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #283

mort96 wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? The extra value has gone to enrich the oligarchs rather than to the people. Maybe that should change.

How do you deprive an oligarch of their ill gotten wealth without violence?

Make the next generation of wealth-generating innovations easily within reach to anyone, not just those with capital.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#327

Post by SquidJack » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:28 PM UTC

You are saying like photoshop killed artists nothing wrong about the new tech

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#328

Post by hnfong » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:28 PM UTC

photochemsyn wrote: post #280

pavel_lishin wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? > Though some people in some companies might be laid…

Why not use AI to automate away the board of directors and the shareholders? It should be entirely possible. We just need an AI capable of generating its own capital, then the investor class can be removed from the loop.

This sounds horrible. You’re basically saying you want everyone to work for companies controlled by AI.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#329

Post by birdyrooster » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:28 PM UTC

stickfigure wrote: post #272

inimino wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comment is amazing in its naivete. The first sentence in the post you are replying to already includes awareness of everything you said and more, while nothing in your comment suggests you understood the post at all. Priya doesn't become 10 times more productive, someone else uses the tool to do her job, which no longer exists.

Priya has a university degree in biotechnology. If that doesn't qualify her for something more productive than GPT-level work, there's something fundamentally wrong with the educational system. She's in her 20s, educated, and lives in a country that, for all its problems, is on a strong growth trend. She's not a 60yo UAW worker in Detroit.

And yes there is something fundamentally wrong with the educational system and has been for decades. Companies doing ground breaking work have their pet colleges for recruiting and outsourcing, the rest just create outdated degrees for mega companies that used to exist. The students aren't great and the education is poor in most places.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#330

Post by ajmurmann » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:28 PM UTC

nemothekid wrote: post #223

satvikpendem wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. You are working the same number of hours as before (40 ish) because companies are producing 10x as much goods in the same amount of time. If they produced only the same amount, ie 1x, you'd have your 2 hour work day (or more likely be out of a job). It is because companies are producing more stuff that you have a job…

> You are complaining about the very thing you benefit from now. It's dubious that anyone except the most wealthy benefits from this. Even though productivity has exploded, wages hasn't followed and the rewards of productivity has gone to a small few. I don't know how anyone can look at wealth inequality today and think most people should be "grateful". It's more likely to me that rest of America will start to look l…

Another commentator calls out all the things we didn't have at all in the past, but our wealth in regard to pre-existing things also has gone up.

In the 50s there were 3 cars/10 Americans. Now it's 9. Homeownership went for 55% to 66%. College degrees 6% -> 38%. We used to spent 20% of income on food. Now it's around 8%. Poverty among 65+ went from 35% to 10%.