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Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff

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Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff

#321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not familiar with all of those but if the ones I am none are revolutionary. They are mostly just a large company using their vast resources to capture market share. Gmail, Android and Chrome aren't revolutionary in the least bit. They are just Google taking over existing segments to sell ads more effectively. Same for maps, perhaps street view was at the least innovative.

That sounds like some pretty high standards then. What within the area of tech would you classify as revolutionary then? I'm guessing DARPA: The Internet, IBM/Microsoft: the PC, Apple: the iPhone. Anything else? I'm talking about the next category of innovation down, whatever you want to call it if you feel "revolutionary" needs to be reserved for generation-defining technologies. Because with your current definition…

Disruption and innovation would look like:

1. There’s ML research that clearly shows that you can convert video streams into neural nets that only need to transmit a very small amount of bandwidth for a high quality construction on the remote. Why didn’t this research come out of Google which has gobs of people working on the space? Why hasn’t the Meet team figured out how to get this into customers hands? Certainly the hardware for it exists and it would drastically change what a video call experience looks like.

2. They abandoned Google glass (correctly - that was a terrible product) and their VR in favor of sitting back and watching what others accomplish to then copy cat what a successful product would look like. Why didn’t they wait for in-lens displays while continuing to invest in the R&D of the product itself?

3. Android is a know memory hog. Android phones require 2x the amount of RAM as an iPhone for the same performance. Why hasn’t Google figured out how to bridge this gap? This is also a big reason why they’re watches struggle.

4. I was advocating to an SVP that Google should release a wearable digital watch/fitness band that’s a very basic experience focused on actual value add instead of a smartwatch: an SE so that Google Pay works without needing internet connectivity, mDL integrated, BT phone calls for the cellular enabled version, basic fitness sensors. It was shot down because he didn’t think it could make his P&Ls only for the SVP to later publicly call out the Android SVP for “why did Apple get to mDL first” ignoring that I was the first Bay Area engineer on the ISO committee.

5. Google took a long time to materialize their in-house CPU and it’s largely been underwhelming I think compared to what Apple’s been doing. Of course they started not too long ago (very late) and are copying Apple’s playbook so not sure how innovative. But for a company that’s been making their own HW since forever…it took them a long time just to make the decision to copy. There’s a lot of cool buzzwords but hard to compare value. Disruptive play: compete with Qualcomm here.

6. Fiber: gave up instead of figuring out how to outcompete telco business practices only to resurrect it again.

7. Stadia: instead of going with a disruptive Netflix-like business model and eating the upfront costs to publishers, they tried and failed. There’s a theme here that Rick is not cut up for anything more innovative than managing mature P&L products.

Then there’s all the dead end projects that they refuse to can because they are unlikely to deliver on the vision. Most of their efforts around “health” are vanity efforts that don’t require the amount of man hours being invested (certainly not rolled up under the commercial health app product line). Or at least this was the case many years ago - not sure about now. They talked a huge game about all the things they were going to enable and have a proven track record of not being able to deliver on any of them. X is neat pie in the sky ideas that never materialize. Moonshot ideas actually require you to get to the moon once. Don’t think any of that has ever come out of X.

Deep mind is probably the best innovative jewel in Google’s arsenal. Most of their magic comes from keeping Google disease at arm’s length. It might be interesting to see a Google with Demis Hassabis at the helm and a mandate to bring back some innovation to Google.

Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff

#322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would venture that word of mouth is spreading among the elites who are on the boards of all these companies - a storm is coming so everything needs to get tied down - so the CEO’s as captains of the ships are following the advice. Whether the storm actually hits, what gets wrecked, what doesn’t. That is a completely separate issue to these people.

What is the storm they're worried about, if not mass layoffs concentrated within an industry? Inflation is almost down to normal, employment is still high and will remain so as long as the construction sector avoids layoffs due to the coming cash infusion from federal spending bills. Seems to me the only storm coming is the one created by these same execs, though I understand each of them is incentivized to follow th…

I’m not one of those elites. So I would not know what the real forecast is.

I’m just stating a hypothesis on the perspective of, say such CEO’s. To them it’s not pack behavior based on hearsay.

Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff

#323
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s called “Japan”. Low performers are kept in corporations to do nothing all day while many of their peers work themselves to death.

Are you implying 100000+ people getting laid off in a handful of months merely is about weeding off "underperformers"?

No, I’m saying that not laying anyone off ever isn’t a good idea.

Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff

#324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While what you describe are serious problems and would be very anxiety inducing for many (most?), the truth remains that it isn't someone else's problem or responsibility.

I'm not ascribing anything but to say that people who are laid off deserve sympathy because you cannot assume their personal circumstances surrounding the layoff. I have no dependents so it doesn't matter to me. My friend's wife is only able to work because of his healthcare, and if she loses his healthcare even if he finds a new job quickly his new health insurance will force the wife into a nightmare of proving she…

That’s very very unfortunate and warrants sympathy for sure. At the same time, one’s employer isn’t the one responsible for securing your financial stability or future.

Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff

#325
post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you implying 100000+ people getting laid off in a handful of months merely is about weeding off "underperformers"?

No, I’m saying that not laying anyone off ever isn’t a good idea.

Termination and layoff are two very different things. You typically don't layoff people for incompetence, you fire them.

Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff

#326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that's high, even for the last year, and certainly not a good or welcome thing, but I'm very glad it's offset by gas prices coming down. If "being on the right track" means that an increase in one category can't be offset by a decrease in another, that seems like an impossible bar to clear. It's not obvious to me why inflation there has increased even as mortgage rates have skyrocketed due to the fed; people/…

Shelter and wages are the two core sticky categories of inflation. You don’t negotiate your lease or employment terms every month. Even if there is a change in supply/demand dynamics, it won’t be visible in the market immediately. This is also why the Fed has been trying to engineer a soft recession. As long as labor markets are tight, there will be sustained wage inflation. And as long as there is wage inflation, th…

it’s not just money sitting on sidelines, there is also risk appetite on the sidelines, reserve work capacity on the sidelines, the ability and willingness to lever up on the sidelines.

Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff

#327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A CEO looking at the economic climate of 2020-2021 and thinking they needed to hire to support the growth in demand for their products is not being negligent, they simply lacked the crystal ball that would have told them the Fed was going to slam the brakes on the economy last year. Even the Fed said they wouldn't be doing that. In light of what's happened, companies need to get leaner to survive. Now if these CEOs d…

Who in their right mind thought interest rates would stay that low and inflation wouldn't eventually catch up?

Jerome Powell

Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A CEO looking at the economic climate of 2020-2021 and thinking they needed to hire to support the growth in demand for their products is not being negligent, they simply lacked the crystal ball that would have told them the Fed was going to slam the brakes on the economy last year. Even the Fed said they wouldn't be doing that. In light of what's happened, companies need to get leaner to survive. Now if these CEOs d…

What's the point in paying people tens or hundreds of millions of dollars if they make the same predictions and bad decisions as everyone else? And have exactly one contingency plan if things go sideways? Which is also everyone else's plan btw and not even a very good one. They hired in a seller's market for talent, and are now firing in a buyer's market.

You could hypothetically have a CEO that was good in a period of economic expansion but poor in a period of economic contraction. By the time you figure out you have one of these CEOs at the helm, it's probably too late to do much about it. And any replacement CEO you bring in is all the more likely to make drastic cuts to cost centers (headcount).

Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff

#329
post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was pulled because they used the term "open source", and the Confluent Community License, while being source-available and allows modifications prevents use of the code in a SaaS environment. So kinda not totally open. But it's just the confluent cli - it's not like someone's gonna base their SaaS around it, should just be BSDed or something.

I don't really understand the intensity of folks that insist on open source meaning something very narrow and specific but different strokes. To me something is open source if I can use it and since I have no intention of ever competing with any of these companies in the SaaS space I don't really care that my rights are limited because they effectively aren't. This is going to sound stupid because I didn't put any re…

>I don't really understand the intensity of folks that insist on open source meaning something very narrow and specific but different strokes.

Words have defined meanings and are important for conveying information and communicating. If you just make up definitions to commonly understood terms, it leads to confusion.

>To me something is open source if ...

So you took a precisely defined phrase[1] that many people put a lot of thought and negotiation into (working with various stakeholders), has been in wide use for decades by thousands of companies and organizations, and hundreds of thousands (or millions) of developers, threw that definition out, and created your own definition because of reasons - how does help anything?

>This is going to sound stupid because I didn't put any real thought into it

Hmmm.

[1] https://opensource.org/osd

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