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EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

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Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#321

Post by elihu »

epistasis wrote: post #275
Panzer04 wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is a carbon tax wrong? It seems very similar in principle to your proposal?

I think a tax on certain sectors can work fine. Especially those sectors with no other options, and that must simply pay to extract the CO2 from the atmosphere that they put into it. However, an economy-wide tax ignores the differing amounts of technological development difficulty, access to capital, and political influence that varies so widely between sectors. So a carbon tax on electricity generation sources works…

I think a blanket carbon tax at least creates a situation where everyone is paying , in some way, for the externalities they're causing. If some industries don't want to decarbonize because the tax is rounding error to them, then maybe you'd need additional rules or regulations, or maybe we need public investment in some new technology.

I can't think of a case where exempting some group from a carbon tax would be good policy. There is a pretty good argument though that a carbon tax would be regressive, and probably should be compensated for in some way so that poor people don't come out worse off, such as by reducing income tax in the lower brackets.

I think the hardest sector to decarbonize is going to be the military (with the exception of some small percentage of navy ships that are nuclear powered). I could see plug-in hybrid army vehicles eventually being a thing, though. Being able to run off of either diesel or electricity provides a lot of logistical flexibility. You can save the petroleum for when you really need to move long distances.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#322

Post by ZeroGravitas »

Gud wrote: post #295
toast0 wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As a cyclist there isn’t really any good way to reliably avoid startling a pedestrian in a mixed environment. A loud freewheel is probably as close as it gets. I'd guess a loud freehub could work too, but I like my bikes old, so no freehubs. Maybe some sort of jetsons noise generator.

Where do you guys live? Here in Sweden we have a small bell on the steering you ring when you want to pass. https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&channel=iphone_b...

This sadly has become less useful with the increase in headphone usage by pedestrians.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#323

Post by asdff »

bigcheesegs wrote: post #299
blahedo wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for raising this issue—as you point out, it's often ignored—but I'd posit it's even worse than you (and others on this thread) indicate. When the issue is framed at all, it's usually boiled down to "landlords won't want to install chargers in the apartment garages" with the possible counterpoint of "demand will force them to" or there will be subsidies or etc etc. But there are vast, vast numbers of people who…

There's lots of overnight street parking in the bay area, but there are lots of other opportunities to charge. The actual hard case is someone that drives a significant amount during the day, doesn't have charging at work, and can't have charging overnight. Here really the only option is DC fast charging. However, this is a reasonable rare circumstance, and it's only getting easier to charge.

One potential source of traffic in LA that will be tough to meet with an EV solution as currently offered is the 'handyman' persona. Either legitimate businessmen such as plumbers or landscapers and what not, or those people who extend their truck beds with plywood to stack the scrap as high as the freeway bridges will let them, either way all of these groups of people are driving all day, at all hours, to oddball places all over the place, and are in need of cargo space. The job site of the day might not have reliable drinking water let alone a supercharger for you to tap into.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#324

Post by ZeroGravitas »

Electric miles driven is a slightly more important metric and should be weighted towards early adopters, since delivery vans and long commutes earn back the upfront cost faster.

The classic car that only gets driven on summer weekends isn't worth as much as a USPS van in terms of carbon and urban pollution reduction.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#325

Post by elihu »

yurishimo wrote: post #190
reaperducer wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

88,000 people in perhaps 50,000 vehicles all taking the ONE road out of town. That's an interesting point. We see this a couple of times a year in the United States — tens, or even hundreds of thousands of people evacuating because of an approaching hurricane. It takes hours and hours and hours to go not very far. And when you finally get someplace with an open hotel room, it's hundreds of miles away. Although I beli…

At a minimum we need some sort of fast charger that can add 50+ miles in 5 minutes. Granted, in a gas car that's a full tank usually, but let's be reasonable about what we can expect in the near-ish future. Having wireless tech that can charge that fast would be even better. Maybe get on a little conveyer belt similar to an automated carwash and by the time you exit, you have 50 more miles than before. Hell, imagine…

You can do a lot better than that; just electrify the roads so that cars can recharge while travelling at highway speeds.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/12/worlds-f...

There's basically three options: overhead lines, which are cheap but kind of ugly and don't really work for passenger cars (they'd need a really tall pantograph to reach as high as a truck), rails embedded in the road surface which can be used by cars and trucks but are more expensive than overhead lines, and wireless charging which is much more expensive than rails and the amount of power you can reasonably transfer is pretty limited.

I'm in favor of the rail approach, like they're testing in Sweden. If some billionaire with money burning a hole in your pocket is reading this, might I suggest buying a stretch of land parallel to a busy highway and constructing a parallel road with rail-style charging, and establish an in-motion charging standard. Let people charge for free and see what comes of it.

In the long run I hope all the major highways get electrified this way. It's disappointing that Congress isn't already working on this.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#326

Post by ZeroGravitas »

blahedo wrote: post #272
therealrootuser wrote: post #187

As someone that is currently in the market for a new car, I would love to get an EV, but I also don't have a good way to charge. Seems like most EV owners just charge at their house, but what about people that don't have access to a good power tap? (apartment dwellers, renters, etc.) Sometimes it feels like there is a group of EV elites out there that are predicting the complete demise of ICEs while conveniently down…

Thanks for raising this issue—as you point out, it's often ignored—but I'd posit it's even worse than you (and others on this thread) indicate. When the issue is framed at all, it's usually boiled down to "landlords won't want to install chargers in the apartment garages" with the possible counterpoint of "demand will force them to" or there will be subsidies or etc etc. But there are vast, vast numbers of people who…

Why would a landlord pay good money to build something that they can charge people to use for short periods of time and recoup their investment and start to profit in their sleep over a medium term timescale?

And cities, creating places for cars to park and forcing them to pay for that, either charging the car owner directly at the time or through taxes? I just can't imagine that.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#327

Post by asdff »

darkteflon wrote: post #29

I feel like predictions on EV adoption generally focus too much on practical benefits and cost improvements over time, but discount - or at least fail to mention - the potential impact of ICE products becoming very uncool, very quickly - at least in Western countries. Overnight, even. It’s not a big stretch to imagine that generations of younger people concerned about the climate might make product consumption choice…

So why didn't this happen with the prius?

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#328

Post by baq »

kwhitefoot wrote: post #303
ReptileMan wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No EV has 500 km range when you drive it in real world conditions. If you drive it with normal highway speed - 140-160 km/h you can barely get 250.

Do you have a new EV? My 2015 Model S 70D has a nominal range of 330 km and as far as i can tell it does pretty close to that unless I am running at high speed (110 km/h or more) or doing a lot of hill climbing. So I'm pretty sure that a newer EV, especially a lighter one or one with a larger battery and lower power motor would have a longer range. 140 km/h and above is not a normal highway speed in any country excep…

my vacation this year was 1500 km one way, at least 80% of which was done at 130km/h or more (both ways). i was one of very many doing a trip of this length judging by license plates at the destination.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#329

Post by bartvk »

therealrootuser wrote: post #187

As someone that is currently in the market for a new car, I would love to get an EV, but I also don't have a good way to charge. Seems like most EV owners just charge at their house, but what about people that don't have access to a good power tap? (apartment dwellers, renters, etc.) Sometimes it feels like there is a group of EV elites out there that are predicting the complete demise of ICEs while conveniently down…

Depending on how much you drive, and how far you live from a fastcharger, you could very well do without a local slower charger.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#330

Post by asdff »

crooked-v wrote: post #10

I suspect it would be even faster if there was a charging option for the many people in cities with their cars in shared garages, even one as simple as just having a lot of 240V outlets. It feels like something that's rather overlooked at the moment.

The thing is its already bad enough that new apartments are mandated to build garages. It leads to fewer units being built overall due to that huge cost to the developer. Now you have to add on charging to each and every spot as well? Maybe this is the impetus that finally gets us off the ball and chain of car culture.
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