The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal • Hacker News Board

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#321

Post by buscoquadnary » Thu, Sep 01, 2022, 9:44 PM UTC

ttymck wrote: post #158

paxys wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't think of any major urban area in the world and any time period in history where "housing is too expensive" hasn't been the popular sentiment.

This is interesting, because (at least in America) the current rhetoric is that housing was laughably affordable up until the 70s(?). Now, even in suburbs, housing is far more expensive than most wage earners could expect to afford. Maybe we are thinking of two different sides of the same coin, but I would genuinely be interested in reading articles from the ~mid-century describing what you suggest.

The problem in the US is pretty obvious. We are the time period where the largest generation of Americans (the boomers) are at the retirement, or about to retire point, at the same time the Zoomers, which are a decent sized generation, are entering the housing market.

Over the next several decades as the boomers die off or move to retirement homes the housing supply will increase substantially, and the value of properties in most of the US will plummet.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#322

Post by _dain_ » Thu, Sep 01, 2022, 9:44 PM UTC

JoeJonathan wrote: post #264

jseliger wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city Portugal should build more housing, which is a simple, effective solution if the rent is too damn high: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/the-ren... . The nice thing about indoor space is that we can make pretty much as much of it as we'd like.

In what way is building more housing simple? If it were that straightforward, California (which has much more space and money) would have done it, and Californians wouldn't be moving to Portugal.

we somehow managed to build houses for thousands of years, so it can't be that hard, can it? the scarcity is entirely artificial.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#323

Post by spaceman_2020 » Thu, Sep 01, 2022, 9:44 PM UTC

buscoquadnary wrote: post #308

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems to be a problem everywhere around the world in big cities. What’s propping all of these property prices up? Supply and demand rules don’t seem to apply at all. You might have thousands of empty apartments in a city yet the price only keeps going up. Everything is broken, but housing is particularly broken.

I've been thinking about this I think it is the end result of globalization. First we could ship stuff overseas, then we could ship jobs overseas, now people are realizing they can ship their house overseas, and Portugal has a much nicer climate and weather than Shanghai so why not move there. Basically with the advent of the internet and the rise in remote work there's no more reason people really feel tied to a pla…

Feels that way too. America’s increasingly tough stance on exports to China are a sign of things to come.

I’m not even sure if this Globalization was worth all that much. It’s made some people very wealthy, some people well-off, but its also made lots of people very poor and very angry.

I’m okay with living in a world with fewer millionaires but also fewer people sleeping on the streets.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#324

Post by bhupy » Thu, Sep 01, 2022, 9:49 PM UTC

andrepd wrote: post #81

Victerius wrote: post #3

Unsustainable. If you're a wealthy individual living in an expensive residence surrounded by other wealthy individuals living in expensive residences, you still need garbagemen to collect your garbage. You still need food. Whether you order from local restaurants staffed by employees, or buy your groceries at the supermarket, staffed by employees, janitorial personnel, security guards, and managers, you're still rely…

> Be a YIMBY. Embrace looser zoning regulations and more and denser housing where you live. And don't jack up the rent to market rates if you're already turning a profit. Eh. Waiting for people to forgo short-term profit from the goodness of their hearts under capitalism is a losing battle. The system must be built to prevent such behaviours and outcomes, rather than relying on individual good-will.

I mean, by that logic, waiting for people to choose to vote in such a manner that changes the system (from the goodness of their hearts, no less) is a losing battle also. Remember, changing the system (whatever that means) involves the same democratic buy-in as loosening zoning regulations.

Ultimately, the only way to change to change things under a democratic process is to win hearts and minds, and in either approach, people will have to make hard decisions. Either it's forgoing short-term profit by loosening zoning regulations or forgoing even long term profit by enacting whatever large scale systemic change one envisions will solve the problem (strict price controls, rationing, expropriation, etc).

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#325

Post by andrekandre » Thu, Sep 01, 2022, 9:50 PM UTC

citilife wrote: post #275

jonathanstrange wrote: post #97

Yes, the situation is dire. I live in Lisbon as a foreigner for more than 12 years now. We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city. Luckily, we have an older contract that cannot be changed as easily as newer ones. I'm not thrilled by the possibility that our landlord might cancel it some day, however, e.g. for relatives to move in. Rents in t…

Many dislike the idea, but this is why people turn to "nationalism". If you want to decrease unemployment, you add tariffs for imports enabling more businesses to open domestically (i.e. tariffs effectively increase import costs). Similarly, you can loosen building codes to increase production of homes, limit visa duration, require citizenship for home ownership, etc. Those are some obvious fixes, why is the governme…

none of those things gets rid of the root causes: too much financialization and speculation

alot of these things used to be regulated, discouraged or prohibited, but with deregulation of much of finance more and more wealth is generated from speculation, rents and leverage... if people can make money passively from doing nothing but owning something (real or virtual) there is less motivation for "real productive work" and squeezes out the rest of the economy.

this compounds over time and get the results you see today: high land costs, rents, inflation etc.

blocking immigration or adding tariffs etc will do nothing to stop any that....

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#326

Post by JoeJonathan » Thu, Sep 01, 2022, 9:51 PM UTC

lthornberry wrote: post #278

JoeJonathan wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what way is building more housing simple? If it were that straightforward, California (which has much more space and money) would have done it, and Californians wouldn't be moving to Portugal.

For many decades, California has had extremely restrictive building regulations, especially in the most desirable areas. That is slowly changing, but the actual building has always been straightforward. It is getting the permission to do so that is complicated, expensive, and often just impossible.

Agreed on all counts, but that doesn't make the problem of politics any less real. People problems are always the hardest to solve, especially when deeply problematic policies like Prop 13 are written into the state constitution.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#327

Post by stavros » Thu, Sep 01, 2022, 9:51 PM UTC

TulliusCicero wrote: post #262

jseliger wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city Portugal should build more housing, which is a simple, effective solution if the rent is too damn high: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/the-ren... . The nice thing about indoor space is that we can make pretty much as much of it as we'd like.

How this usually works: "I'd do anything for lower housing prices!" Build more housing. "...but I won't do that."

Greece has the exact same problem. Rents are skyrocketing and people can't afford to live in their own cities. We're building more housing, but it doesn't seem to be helping.

Maybe SF doesn't want to build more housing, but this isn't universal.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#328

Post by buscoquadnary » Thu, Sep 01, 2022, 9:51 PM UTC

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #323

buscoquadnary wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking about this I think it is the end result of globalization. First we could ship stuff overseas, then we could ship jobs overseas, now people are realizing they can ship their house overseas, and Portugal has a much nicer climate and weather than Shanghai so why not move there. Basically with the advent of the internet and the rise in remote work there's no more reason people really feel tied to a pla…

Feels that way too. America’s increasingly tough stance on exports to China are a sign of things to come. I’m not even sure if this Globalization was worth all that much. It’s made some people very wealthy, some people well-off, but its also made lots of people very poor and very angry. I’m okay with living in a world with fewer millionaires but also fewer people sleeping on the streets.

Actually I listened to an interesting talk yesterday by Peter Zeihan, just discovered he has some interesting ideas. One of his theories is that the reason we have globalization isn't economic but it was rather America's attempt to win and keep allies during the cold war. You could participate in a global world trade network and economy (kept safe and maintained by American military might) as long as you were willing to work within the US framework. After the end of the Cold War the original purpose for globalization has disappeared and now we have to figure out what is next.

It was an interesting argument that globalization was an American security development not an international economic development.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#329

Post by joao_lopes » Thu, Sep 01, 2022, 9:51 PM UTC

joshlemer wrote: post #133

marcodiego wrote: post #31

One of my students got a job offer in Portugal before the pandemic. He personally came to thank me for being his teacher; he is a good, dedicated student. Pandemic came, he stayed in Brazil doing remote work. Found him a few days ago. He told me he gave up going to Portugal and decided to stay in Brazil for now mostly because cost of living there. His initial salary would be 1.6K euros.

1.6k euros per... month?

Also, in Portugal you receive 14 months per year instead of 12 (one extra on summer holiday and another on Christmas).

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#330

Post by pyb » Thu, Sep 01, 2022, 9:54 PM UTC

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #296

jonathanstrange wrote: post #97

Yes, the situation is dire. I live in Lisbon as a foreigner for more than 12 years now. We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city. Luckily, we have an older contract that cannot be changed as easily as newer ones. I'm not thrilled by the possibility that our landlord might cancel it some day, however, e.g. for relatives to move in. Rents in t…

This seems to be a problem everywhere around the world in big cities. What’s propping all of these property prices up? Supply and demand rules don’t seem to apply at all. You might have thousands of empty apartments in a city yet the price only keeps going up. Everything is broken, but housing is particularly broken.

The problem is always not allowing more housing to get built.