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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

bls.gov

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#321
post #291

Given all of the COVID money, trillion dollar spending bills, supply chain issues, etc have been building up over the last few years, why does inflation ramp up suddenly all at once? Shouldn't it be more gradual? https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/08/09/business/inflatio... It this just purely gas prices? Or does the market just play along as if everything is good then freak out all at once?

sticky prices https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C39&q=sti...

roughly, changing prices has transactional and psychological effects, so suppliers hold out on price changes as long as possible, then do bigger changes (especially in non-liquid markets). So we see fewer big step changes in prices than smaller continuous changes (except for things that are traded frequently, like commodities).

Also there is a herd effect with consumer pricing. Once a market leader raises a price, that makes it 'safe' for other firms to match the price change.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not trying to be glib or intentionally controversial, but: is this a "market correction" for beef not really being as sustainable at recent consumption levels? Is it a bad thing if beef becomes significantly more expensive?

They’re pushing all kind of narratives to make cattle seem like they’re terrible for the world, and linking everything to climate change. No one wants to accept the push to start eating bugs. Don’t give into the WEF propaganda https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/18/cows-sea...

Cattle are pretty energy inefficient though, that's a fact. And people would prob be healthier with less meat overall.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Careful with that last line. Toward the end Trump was making some serious moves towards not accepting the outcome of the election, and the idea that the election was "stolen" is still the going line in Trump circles. Say what you will about the Biden administration, at least it's not threatening to burn the house down out of spite.

Really? Cause democrats are openly talking about abolishing the filibuster and packing the Supreme Court currently.

Same shit different day, different faces.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#324
post #172

How easy this value can be verified? In other words, do we have all inputs public and the algorithm (with all its "hedonistic adjustments") is fully accessible? Can we track changes in the algorithm? Even with the effect of high base, I am getting increasingly suspicious of official numbers (same with the unemployment statistics). Energy costs have skyrocketed and they get into almost everything an economy produces.…

The data, and the algorithm, are public. You just have to look.

You say energy prices have skyrocketed? well yeah, and that is reflected. year over year, increased over 30%, according to this:

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

The truth there are different inflation measures that tell us different things about the economy. Also, when the structure of the economy changes, the indexes used might mismatch what people are actually paying. We live in wild times, and it very well might be that there is more uncertainty in the numbers, or more mismatch from lived experience, than there used to be.

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/common-misconceptions-abo...

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#325
post #172

How easy this value can be verified? In other words, do we have all inputs public and the algorithm (with all its "hedonistic adjustments") is fully accessible? Can we track changes in the algorithm? Even with the effect of high base, I am getting increasingly suspicious of official numbers (same with the unemployment statistics). Energy costs have skyrocketed and they get into almost everything an economy produces.…

the govt changed the way CPI metric was calculated in January 2022 to mask some of the inflation https://twitter.com/truflation/status/1557349186466627586 https://youtube.com/watch?v=cb7oI8Hs16g http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

propagandist gonna propagandize, i guess.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#326

Great. All I know is I'm trading a lot more time for money this year. Way less takeout, avoiding toll roads unless it saves at least 30 minutes, fewer streaming services (will renew on a show-by-show basis), and food is getting so crazy I might start going to multiple stores to try and save money instead of my one consolidated trip to Wegmans. I'm also stuffing my freezer with meat and have a year's supply of non-per…

I'm doing the same (mostly just to buy a house) and I've been using YNAB to budget money:

https://www.youneedabudget.com/

It's really good, knowing where you're money is going ahead of time removes so much guilt and anxiety.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#327
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similar in Florida with FPL(the utility company) [0]. We are now paying more. These are the new rates [1]. [0] https://cleanenergy.org/blog/fpls-holiday-surprise-810-milli... [1] https://www.fpl.com/content/dam/fplgp/us/en/rates/pdf/res-ju...

I'd love to know what Duke is going to do. I have a 1950s block home with less than 3 inches of insulation in the attic (Duke Energy efficiency audit put it at a charitable R-11) and original windows that I was told by the HVAC person "leak like a sieve". Electric bill this month may hit $400.

Original windows are likely the biggest offender. You could just replace the largest windows if budget is a concern or place plastic over the inside portion to create an “insulative” air barrier between the plastic sheet and the window. The plastic trick worked amazingly for me when renting an old farm house on a city plot. Looks ghetto ugly though.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corn seems to be a good leading indicator here[1]. Cash bids were $4 in 2019, $5 in 2020, $6 in 2021, $7 at the start of 2022, $9 when the war in Ukraine broke out, down to $8 in June, and now at $7.50 where it has remained stable at since the beginning of July. Which suggests that things are indeed slowing. [1] Which likely ends up being a proxy for oil, but as a farmer I watch food commodities much more closely.

The issue has to do with the harvest coming up. The next harvest will come from fields with less fertilizer and higher fuel prices. We can expect corn prices in the fall jumping significantly. Next year will even be worse, we are using a fuel reserves now and fertilizer will still be an issue (unless peace is made with Russia). I’m expecting a significant increase in the next 2-3 months then again in 15-16 months.

Don't futures cover the cost of most of this stuff?

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#329
post #269
post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, not this again. If you have a standard household outlet accessible where you park, you probably don’t need charging stations outside of road trips, because you’ll be getting 60+ miles of charge overnight. The load at a given time is like a third that of a central air conditioner. I think we can handle it.

Please talk to any energy technician working on national grid. We have troubles generating enough power to not force blackouts in EU and we talk about introducing hundreds of millions of EVs / to every household. Currently it all works only because they are a novelity.

I think you all can figure it out, it’s not a huge percentage increase vs people’s normal usage, and there’s plenty of time to incrementally improve - battery production is currently a pretty hard bottleneck on the production rate.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#330

Good news I guess. But my electricity price literally doubled. My house insurance is up 30%. My gas bill is up by a lot. Have you seen the price of oreos? The $5 box at Taco Bell is my splurge and I'm trying to cut back on everything I can.

Electricity is going up like mad in England too, they’ve recently changed the rules so suppliers can increase the price every 3 months instead of 6 months to allow more price changes.
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