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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#321

Post by shaklee3 »

01100011 wrote: post #18
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Isn't Tesla supposed to be producing Optimus, their human-like android, next year? Elon has been over-promising(i.e. flat out lying) about self-driving every year since.. 2014(there's a youtube video compilation of it)? It seems like his strategy is to just come up with increasingly grandiose promises every year when he fails to deliver on his past promises. He's trapped in his swirling vortex of bullshit. Very worry…

he's been doing it on starlink too, but he gets a pass on HN for that one.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#322

Post by moomoo11 »

misiti3780 wrote: post #286
moomoo11 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I ended up selling mine because the build quality started getting on my nerves. Misaligned panels that are "within spec" or interior rattles that make the ride completely unpleasant (at only 10k miles). The tech is all right, and I got to try auto pilot at a discount. Unfortunately the phantom braking made AP completely useless with passengers who would freak out and complain. However, when it worked it was quite nic…

you're in the minority ...

I am just giving my anecdotal experience. I hope I can have a better one by the time I try a later Tesla model.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#323

Post by FireBeyond »

function_seven wrote: post #57
dreamcompiler wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because self-driving has a bunch of tricky edge cases and most of them will kill people. Problems with hundreds of important edge cases cannot be solved by simply throwing more training data at the problem; that's how you solve AI problems in a "dumb" manner, and it works for lots of problems (like recognizing dogs in images) -- but not for self-driving. To solve the self-driving problem we need "smart" A.I., which m…

I remain convinced that "real" self driving (as in: go ahead and sleep in the backseat) will never happen without changes to road infrastructure and possibly some sort of segregation between robot-driven cars and people-driven cars. Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera le…

> Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status

This is a thing in Europe, and even some US cities - my Audi has traffic sign recognition and when at a compatible intersection knows what the light is at (by radio, not by light), and how long until it changes (will show a countdown in seconds til the next light change).

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#324

Post by matt-attack »

raydiatian wrote: post #70
sonofhans wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Driving is a social problem, not a technical one. It's functionally the same as walking down a crowded sidewalk. The car is just a tool, just an extension of our bodies. We can't build a robot which can walk down a sidewalk without running into people either. The sensor tech and mapping fidelity are red herrings. People drive well because only people are good at predicting human behavior.

Sort of. Your wording actually assumes down to its core that driving is inherently social, when in fact I think it may be only provisionally social. Driving currently “is social” in a few senses, But of course the important (and obvious) one is that it currently involves accounting for human-operated vehicles. Alternatively, an autonomous vehicle operator in a homogenous network full of other autonomous operators has…

I feel I must link to one of my all-time favorite Reddit posts [1] about just this. Please do read.

https://np.reddit.com/r/CatastrophicFailure/comments/43juk4/...

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#325

Post by xnx »

sorry_outta_gas wrote: post #199
UncleOxidant wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm old enough to remember all the breathless pronouncements in 2015 about how self-driving cars would be everywhere within 5 years. I was skeptical then and I'm still skeptical that it will ever happen outside of some limited range of well known paths that have been pre-determined to be safe - ie we'll have (and we do have) some self driving cars but they'll essentially be on a closed course and will not leave the c…

we're still trying to convert to electric, self dirving is far out there

These are mostly unrelated. Some of Waymo's vehicles are ICE.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#327

Post by justapassenger »

elif wrote: post #289
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

FSD beta tester here. I think they are minimum 3 years away from anything exciting beta.. but the localization, mapping, and visualization are not the reason. I don't think LIDAR would contribute substantially to improvement. The fundamental flaws are in the decision-making being based upon 10-30 second feature memory, ignoring features outright, and only depending on visible road features instead of persisted map da…

It’s naive to call yourself beta tester. People who have access to beta are basically just a part of PR exercise by Tesla, that tries to hide lack of meaningful progress towards multiple missed deadlines.

You aren’t beta testing complex automation system that’s operating on public roads. To do any meaningful testing you should have defined operation domain, specific behaviors to test, direct line to the engineering team to report issues, etc, etc.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#328

Post by notsapiensatall »

ra7 wrote: post #119
lazyjones wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> doesn’t seem capable of solving it, How so? If humans can master driving with 2 eyes looking forward, why would a car with plenty of cameras in all directions not have sufficient sensory input to master it? The problem is the software, not the sensors.

Same reason airplanes don't fly by just flapping their wings like birds. There's not always a biological equivalent for solving a problem, especially when you take into account human brain's evolution over millions of years. Sometimes computers need more help.

Large birds don't fly by flapping their wings when they have enough lift. Look at one in a thermal updraft sometime, it's quite a majestic sight.

If birds had engines on their wings, they would probably fly more like airplanes.

But cameras are a poor substitute for human vision, because they can't move or pivot or refocus much.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#329

Post by sidcool »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

Tesla has been over promising for sure. But it’s not a fraud. Had it been it would have met the same fate as Nikola. I am for heavy fines on Tesla for their lofty claims, but I don’t know why people want to see Tesla destroyed. They do have a profitable electric car business with no fraud.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#330

Post by nunez »

Denzel wrote: post #161
carbadtraingood wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an owner for 5+ years, the cars show well but pretty quickly become a pain in the ass. They'll get eclipsed by other electric car manufacturers real quick. Edit: more specifically, the parts break and they are difficult to replace. The battery degrades. They stopped providing maps to the vehicle unless I'm willing to spend several hundred dollars to replace the media console, they've told me I'm covered by a recal…

Ok? As a Model 3 owner for 3+ years the car shows well and has been rock solid this whole time. > Parts break difficult to replace I think I had a set of squeaky control arms that Tesla replaced under warranty in less than a week, free of charge. I don’t remember because it was such a nonissue. Side swiped by another driver; dented my fender, bumper, smashed the headlight. Their insurance took fault, Tesla certified…

counterpoint: long drives have been improved significantly by Navigate on Autopilot, and the FSD Beta is nice.

example: I live in Houston and needed to go to Dallas for a work trip.

If my wife weren't using our Tesla that week (she drove it to Tennessee), I would have driven there (200-ish miles). I've done 1000+ mile trips with the Model 3 with zero issues, all because of "FSD."

Despite having another car that I really love, driving long distances manually is rough on me. So instead, I took an Uber Black both ways, flew, and rented a car in Dallas. (I expensed the UberX rate, so I paid the rest out of pocket. We are an hour from the airport.)

Convenient, but I still missed the Tesla.

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