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Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

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Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#321

Post by s1artibartfast »

davio wrote: post #253
cammikebrown wrote: post #2

Seems like the bubble burst is going to be more sudden than we thought. 30 year mortgages are suddenly at nearly 5.5-6%, listings are sitting on the market for longer, and multiple cities are cracking down on Airbnb.

Refinance applications were down 70% compared to year ago. Combined with low home inventory, the mortgage industry looks pretty grim. I'm expecting rates to reverse at some point. Mortgage companies will either need to compete to get some business or just give up.

Last years rates were a historic low, lower than the last 40 years at least. How do refinances compare to 3, 5, or 10 years ago

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#322

Post by s1artibartfast »

crysin wrote: post #23
paxys wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it is still relatively easy to get ~4-4.25% with a little bit of negotiating.

By negotiating do you mean taking points? I can’t imagine many lenders are willing to go below prime for a 30 year conforming loan.

I'm in escrow with less than 4% today w no points. Took some negotiating

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#323

Post by s1artibartfast »

oliwarner wrote: post #55
cammikebrown wrote: post #2

Seems like the bubble burst is going to be more sudden than we thought. 30 year mortgages are suddenly at nearly 5.5-6%, listings are sitting on the market for longer, and multiple cities are cracking down on Airbnb.

Whole-term-fixed rates are pretty uncommon in Europe. Fixes of 2, 5 sometimes 10 years are products most providers offer, but as the term increases, the rate shoots up, to offset rate uncertainty. My question is: why would you fix for 30yr when you know you're paying multiple points to offset market uncertainty? Remortgaging every couple of years takes a bit of time, and shopping around, but is much cheaper.

>why would you fix for 30yr when you know you're paying multiple points to offset market uncertainty

Because you are leveraged to the gills and a rate hike could lose you your entire principal.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#324

Post by bilbo0s »

doctoboggan wrote: post #281
mbesto wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I grew up in Chicago and love Chicago, so I'll try to say this as politely as possible - don't expect your property to hold any value in IL. Anecdata - I have friends that lived there for 8+ years, then moved to the south in the last 2 years and their property value barely budged.

I honestly won’t be too upset if that happens especially if it means people aren’t treating housing as high return investment vehicles. Hopefully that means house prices will be more reasonable.

Yeah. I'm trying to figure out why a sane housing market is a "bad" thing?

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#325

Post by eberkund »

gbasin wrote: post #286
agent008t wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That chart seems to only go back to 1987, which is after the decline in interest rates started: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y

Here you go https://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2011/07/housing-pr...

According to this, home prices were mostly flat from 1900 up until the 1970s. The proves the opposite of the point you are trying to make.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#326

Post by throw8383833jj »

agent008t wrote: post #136
itsoktocry wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Going in debt for 30-40 years has zero appeal for me, it just seems like a terrible move. Buying a house isn't for everyone, sure. But this is a serious misunderstanding of what "going into debt" is. You're not buying a TV you'll throw out in 5 years, you're buying an asset class that has a history of appreciating in value over 100+ years that you can get incredible leverage on. In the US and Canada, at least, buyi…

>buying an asset class that has a history of appreciating in value Correction - over a time period of decreasing interest rates. Housing, on its own, is a depreciating asset. It is a consumable like a TV. It deteriorates with time. "Housing always goes up", without an understanding of why it has been going up, can be a dangerous belief and could be one of the reasons why housing at the moment is so expensive relative…

Interest rates for mortgages follow 30 yr treasuries which won't get very high. The Fed will come in with full on yield curve control at some point. 30yr treasuries are at almost 3%, already. I can't imagine they'll get higher than 4 or 5%, at least for not too long. The world is way too addicted to low rates. if interest rates rise for any long period, something will break, really badly, there will be a fear filled crash and the fed WILL come in: you can bet on that.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#327

Post by eunoia »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #297
bitexploder wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of Denver region had been hot as well.

I've heard Denver is extremely popular because you have all the amenities of a big city (They even have a Six Flags!), yet is right next to beautiful mountains and nature. Some parts even still have a small town feel. Of course, I've also heard that a significant fraction of those moving in are single men, to the point where the city has gotten the nickname "Menver".

Some random local context: Menver was a running joke 10/15 years ago, probably even before that too.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#328

Post by throw8383833jj »

darrenf wrote: post #171
hans1729 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Going into debt at the lowest interest rate you'll ever be offered to buy a leveraged asset that's likely to increase in price and reduce the overhead you pay on your largest expense, housing, and hedge against the risk of rent increases and security against the whims of landlords? Look, if I had enough money around, I'd maybe consider the gamble. But I don't want to buy property to sell it later, I just want to li…

I spent most of my 20s thinking, man, fuck home ownership, I'm gonna rent forever (to my knowledge, no-one in my family had ever owned; I grew up in charity housing and inherited nothing at all). Then I got booted out of a place because the landlord wanted to sell. They offered it to me first, but I had no savings for a deposit. The same story played out amongst my friends, repeatedly, and it totally changed my mind.…

house ownership is just a legal construct. you don't really own the house, even when it's paid off. even if you own, and pay off the entire house, you'll still have to pay "rent" in the form of property taxes, an unfortunate reality.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#329

Post by thiago_fm »

eadmund wrote: post #274
hans1729 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not miss those people, but my wording was loaded and so the point got lost in translation. I implicitly captured them under b) "[...] it's dumb to buy estates where the price is set by people and institutions that have n times your own income/net worth" , where dumb is a loaded term for your > "to the point where it no longer seems rational" . > But crucially, the presence of this group of people arguably turns…

> I just turned 30 and do well for myself as an employed consultant, but I wouldn't consider buying the dip, unless the dip is at least ~100% of the current market prices (which I don't see happening, but who knows). You wouldn't buy a house unless it was essentially free? A dip of ~100% means prices at ~0% their current level. > Going in debt for 30-40 years has zero appeal for me, it just seems like a terrible move…

35K year is a lot of money. It is close to the average yearly salary in Germany, the country he has mentioned, and this is not including taxes etc.

So is $1mi. For a lot of countries, this is money you could retire on.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#330

Post by lmt55 »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #306
lmt55 wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the reality is more subtle. A large number of poorer elder people will be in dire financial straits, forced to work beyond their ability to do so and unable to pay for health care. However there are also a smaller number of extremely rich baby boomers and a very large number of comfortable middle-class ones. The former will obviously pass on large amounts of wealth. The latter have been forced to save large a…

I think you might be referring to top 10% of households. https://dqydj.com/net-worth-by-age-calculator-united-states/ 75th percentile gets to only $800k by age 70, and that is including the equity in their home. Maybe the beneficiaries of the 70% to 90% households will end up with real estate worth a few hundred thousand, but I do not see much wealth being passed down beyond that. Labor is only going to get more expe…

A 'few hundred thousand' is a lot of money to inherit, and for lots of middle-aged people and young families it will go straight back into the housing market, typically in areas that are already quite hot.

Note that the upper quartile having $800k includes $500k which isn't in their primary residence. Older people tend to own cheaper houses than you might think, since they are more likely to live in more rural areas.

If you're 70 and have a house you might be able to live quite a few years on half a million. In practice, you have a decent chance of dying before you spend all your capital.

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