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Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

reuters.com

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Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#321

Post by Zpalmtree »

justicezyx wrote: post #274
rp1 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, that’s a lot of words that doesn’t address anything. This guy is under investigation because of his actions. Bringing up a bunch of irrelevant facts just serves as a distraction. Seriously, the U.S. causing the global financial crisis is your counter argument?

At the moment like this, I always wonder: Should I spend time engaging with this guy who appears not reading, or cherrypicking statements, or plainly trolling?... I think the one sentence explanation is that your statement is plainly racism. Even in this post, you admitted that "This guy is under investigation", yet you are able to use a unsubstantiated charge, and blow it into China economic warfare, and label that…

Ah yes, anyone criticizing china is racist. Straight out of the CCP handbook.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#322

Post by chii »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #88
xxpor wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A) What do you propose the US do? B) Why should the US do anything? If your risk profile when dealing with Chinese companies doesn't include the risk that the CPC will change the rules of the game later to benefit the domestic economy, you're a sucker.

> Why should the US do anything? If private investors want to invest in China, that's fine. But pensions and banks should not, and should not be investing in funds that do. Their risks are shared, and China trashing their balance sheets is a public policy concern.

> But pensions and banks should not [invest in china], and should not be investing in funds that do.

It could be argued that pensions should not be investing in risky bonds (or assets), but this idea shouldn't have anything to do with china specifically. Institutions that can't absorb these risks should not take them.

Just because it's china related, doesn't mean that the gov't should have a specific policy to prevent it from happening (but allow these institutions to invest in other, equally risky assets). To allow such policy to be set is to turn investment into political weapon. I do not want to see that.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#323

Post by chii »

zaptrem wrote: post #100
spamizbad wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A bunch of greedy US investors dumped money into quixotic Chinese companies and we should bail them out? Sounds politically toxic to me.

If a large group of innocent US citizens that ventured to China for tourism reasons were shot down by CCP police would you say the government should stay out of it, instead blaming them for trusting China?

if those large group of people agreed to be shot at, for a chance to get a lot of money in return, then they made their own choice and must live with those consequences.

Unless there's some element of fraud undertaken on the part of a national gov't (like CCP), which only the US gov't could present as a counter to, there should be no intervention from the US gov't about the defaults in china and the investment losses incurred to US citizens.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#324

Post by chii »

theandrewbailey wrote: post #61
HenryKissinger wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. shouldn't protect investors from the free market? That's the free market at work. Investors are not entitled to be paid. All investments carry risk.

I agree with that, but that didn't happen in 2008.

it did - some people left holding the bag lost out. The banks were playing the middleman, they weren't the ones taking the risks.

It could be said that the rating agencies were complicit, since their ratings were trusted by various parties by assumption and did not do their own due diligence.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#325

Post by vmurthy »

JamisonM wrote: post #280
pezzana wrote: post #103

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…

Absolutely crazy that the top comment on this story is a "USD short squeeze" idea after 5 hours. These amounts, 200 million, 150 million USD.. this is peanuts, a fart in the wind. PROTIP: Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud, if you can beat the markets you just beat the markets and Scrooge McDuck-it, you don't run a damn newsletter.

>Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud

Hmmm , depends on what these "tips" entail right? What if another website offers long term hold advice via a newsletter and charges you for it? As a matter of fact, I do subscribe to one in India (no , I am not going to publicise it. DM me if you want to know) where the holding periods are anywhere between 2yrs to 5 yrs. There are disclosures that say whether the stock analyst holds the stock/bond etc.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#326

Post by chii »

whimsicalism wrote: post #133
thereddaikon wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither do you get one from China itself. Its hard to tell what is really going on when everyone has an agenda to warp reality.

Totally. I found actually visiting China to be informative.

There's a saying in chinese, which roughly translates to "seeing is understanding", and it is so true. You can only see the truth for yourself, and you need to see it with your own eyes.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#327

Post by seanmcdirmid »

Specie33 wrote: post #26

Interesting about this is that Evergrande is defaulting only on foreign held debt. Not internal debt after a ccp mandate. If their economy continues its downturn then this precedent would hold for all debt. I would really watch personal funds and investments and insure they dont hold any chinese debt as an asset.

> Interesting about this is that Evergrande is defaulting only on foreign held debt. Not internal debt after a ccp mandate.

This will put a huge hamper on China's FDI: if foreign investors are given a worse place in line in case of insolvency, they will either shy away from investing at all or demand higher returns for the extra risk.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#328

Post by seanmcdirmid »

toyg wrote: post #234
chunghuaming wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some investors have not received Evergrande unit's bond interest due Nov 6, say sources https://www.reuters.com/business/some-evergrande-units-offsh... Evergrande bondholders say they have not received $148m interest payments https://www.ft.com/content/88dcb535-3945-4138-b394-dda82292b... Basically, selective default by Evergrande. Full official default likely very soon, and for most of the Chinese real estate compan…

> Full official default likely very soon, and for most of the Chinese real estate companies. Will this be the Chinese version of Japan's real-estate crash of the '90s...?

> Will this be the Chinese version of Japan's real-estate crash of the '90s...?

If we are lucky? Otherwise, it could be much worse than that. Vancouver, the Bay Area, and LA got hit hard by Japan's real estate crash, I wonder if history will repeat?

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#329

Post by redisman »

boplicity wrote: post #128
pezzana wrote: post #103

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…

> The dollar spiked past a key technical level today. I don't know much about "technical" forex trading, but I can say that USD/CNY didn't really change today, neither did USD/CAD, or USD/GBP. Everything is around where it's been over the past few weeks. Are you saying the real exchange rates will significantly change soon?

TA is tarot for finance bros.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#330

Post by seanmcdirmid »

whimsicalism wrote: post #119
thereddaikon wrote: post #117

There has been talk for years about China's wild construction programs, creating entire cities that nobody lives in. It was obviously unsustainable. Could it be finally falling apart?

The follow up reporting (not widely circulated in the West) on this was that many of those cities have since been filled up and inhabited. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Society/China-s-largest-gh... Wade Shepard, author of Ghost Cities of China: > Today, China’s so-called ghost cities that were so prevalently showcased in 2013 and 2014 (...) have filled up to the point of being functioning, normal cities I would…

You can go visit Kangbashi (Ordos's new distrcit) today (well, when China opens again) if you want to see a ghost city. Kangbashi will fill up as soon as coal becomes popular in China again, which is probably never.

Or even closer to Beijing in Tianjin's new financial district. Actually, the tallest building in China is an incomplete sky scraper in Tianjin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldin_Finance_117), which hasn't had any work done on it since 2015 or so (similar to North Korea's Ryugyong Hotel).

> but you really don't get close to a neutral perspective from most of the Western media.

If anything considering my 9 years living in Beijing, western media holds off on a lot of crazy things that happen in China. No one would actually believe the reality, they would think it was all made up (e.g. the incomplete sky scraper in Tianjin).

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