Job vacancies surge past one million in new record • Hacker News Board

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#321

Post by GordonS » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:53 PM UTC

jlokier wrote: post #132

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not what people voted for in 2016.

Brexit as implemented isn't what most people voted for in 2016 either. Just ask them. Others have. The more common answer is some variation on "I didn't vote for this Brexit". Particularly entertaining are the business owners now going bankrupt who voted for Brexit, now saying "I didn't know this is what Brexit meant when I voted for it". I'd also argue that the fundamental, defining feature of democracy is that the…

And one of my common responses is "well, this is the Brexit I voted against".

Many of these consequences were completely predicable.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#322

Post by carom » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 6:00 PM UTC

_vbnz wrote: post #154

FredPret wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually encouraging landlordism will decrease rents. - Buy-and-hold rental property investors buy properties using Excel, and are vastly less susceptible to hyped and emotional pricing than the public. - More landlords = more capital available for home-builders = more houses built - Supply and demand - more houses and more landlords, with the same number of tenants, shifts pricing power to the tenants

Step 2 just isn't happening, at nowhere near the levels necessary. Instead people are investing in housing as a "store of value" against inflation, maybe not even renting it out and just hoping it appreciates. This is driving prices sky-high. Meanwhile local politicians and boomers support NIMBYism and oppose all housing developments, leading to a massive shortage in housing. Landlords love this as it increases the v…

I am a landlord, I specifically bought a property that is zoned for more units so I can build more housing when I have money again in the future. My dad is a landlord, he is actively building. More units mean more money. You can support a larger population. As a former renter I want more units too. I hated paying 38k / year for a mediocre apartment in SF Bay.

>Meanwhile local politicians and boomers support NIMBYism and oppose all housing developments

This is 100% the issue. Build more housing. Allow smaller units and efficiencies for lower income residents. Get rid of some of the bureaucracy around building, so much of it is just implicit NIMBYism.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#323

Post by tonyedgecombe » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 6:15 PM UTC

GordonS wrote: post #311

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dig up the fruit trees and sell the land for housing?

They'd never get planning permission, because "but the green belt!". It really boggles the mind how for decades we haven't allowed enough new housing to be built.

It's happening around me (Oxfordshire), there is a lot of new housing and it's mostly on farmland.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#324

Post by swarnie » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 6:23 PM UTC

Scoundreller wrote: post #226

swarnie wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which one? UK, UKpol, and even AskUK all creep there on occasions.

Not sure how /uk works, but /Canada is basically made up of people whose own metro/regional/provincial subreddits don’t have a critical mass, which basically makes it representative of low-population density areas in low-population density provinces.

/r/UK is mainly full of people who hate the county but are too young or unappealing to other countries to leave it.

Its a weird British-themed sob fest

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#325

Post by digianarchist » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 6:30 PM UTC

mmarq wrote: post #54

tomp wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love how all the elite arguments that immigration doesn't reduce wages (which the working class always thought were complete bullshit) were proved to be complete bullshit during the pandemic-related border closures. Of course, the discussion about what to do about that remains - open borders & keep wages low, or close borders & raise local wages, or close borders & keep wages low & invest in automation - but it's n…

There’s no opposition to gaslight, the vast majority of the population believes the myth of immigration reducing wages, while there’s no evidence of it being true (you are welcome to provide some). This vast majority is not the opposition, but the force that elected the past 3-4 conservative and euro-skeptic governments that gave us the “hostile environment for foreigners”. In the UK, EU nationals earn more than the…

There's a University of Oxford study that confirms EU migration has had negligible impact on wages in the UK. The study appeared to be focused on wage decline. What I'm less convinced of, and what is much harder to measure, is what impact it has had on wages rising.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#326

Post by grogenaut » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 6:31 PM UTC

long_time_gone wrote: post #116

NiceWayToDoIT wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Second part is not that simple in global economy if you have Chinese cheap labor as direct competitors especially in the food industry where margins for farmers are already too low. I would recommend Jeremy Clarkson - "Clarkson's Farm" first year of operation on a 300 acres farm made a yearly profit of £144 :)

==first year of operation on a 300 acres farm made a yearly profit of £144== Profit in Year 1 is better than most of the startups I read about on HN.

I think you're also discounting that Amazon probably paid him several million dollars to film that show and he also made a lot of stupid and poor decisions for the purpose of entertainment. So while a lot of his struggles are real his actual revenue number is completely unreliable. Also most farms don't start off by buying a several hundred thousand pound Lamborghini tractor and getting all of their equipment every year.

That's sad the show is great entertaining and informative so totally watch it

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#327

Post by oliwarner » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 6:34 PM UTC

neilwilson wrote: post #130

There are 1.034 million vacancies and 3.277 million people without work that want it. There isn't a shortage of labour. There is a shortage of decent pay and conditions. Firms are going to have to get over their cheap labour obsession or close and leave the market to those firms that can.

If only it were that simple.

Firstly these vacancies cover all jobs. Including seasonal Jobs which were traditionally filled by EU workers. Lots of farms struggling to hire this year. There are also lots of part time roles to fill in around furloughed workers.

In a broader sense, jobs need to be in the same places as the people. The UK housing market is such that moving (even to rent) is very slow and expensive. Commuting in both overcrowded and extortionately expensive. If we want poor people to work in our overpriced cities, we have to subsidise comfortable and fast public transport.

Two hours of childcare for one child costs one hour of minimum wage work. Families with more than one child literally can't afford to work. It's also hard to find childcare! More employers could get involved here but it would be more efficient to make 1yo+ childcare free for 30 hours, means assessed.

So yes, higher pay helps, but there are many things that block people from returning to work.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#328

Post by lesuorac » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 6:38 PM UTC

carom wrote: post #314

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No - but the problem is the same. You have 5% downpayments (instead of 3.5% in the US), and mortgage-backed securities. From my understanding, it appears there is NOT a government agency backing them, though. I don't think the 3.5% downpayment market be very big in the US if not for Fannie and Freddie (it basically doesn't exist outside of conventional loans Fannie & Freddie will buy). I don't know how big the market…

I don't think the 3.5% down payment market is very big. >Between July 2019 and June 2020, the average down payment for a home amounted to 12% of the home value. In the first three months of 2021, 48% of home buyers made a down payment of at least 20% of the home value. 21% of home buyers in that same period made an all-cash purchase. [1] It sounds like 69% are >= 20% down or all cash. I don't think enabling lower inc…

A 3% increase in vacancy rate caused a ~10% decrease in apartment pricing in NYC [1].

Housing is very much at the margin and a small increase/decrease of demand will have an outsized effect on price. However, I'm not going to argue that everybody poorer than me shouldn't have access to a house just so I can get one at a cheaper price ...

[1]: https://inhabit.corcoran.com/new-york-city-residential-renta...

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#329

Post by genocidicbunny » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 6:44 PM UTC

GordonS wrote: post #317

adventured wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind the minimum wage also varies by state. The state minimum wages overrule the federal minimum wage when eclipsed (so if the federal rate is $7.25, and Maryland state is $12, then you have to pay $12 as a business in Maryland). It's probably ideal that the minimum wage is state based, with a lower baseline provided by the federal, given the extreme variance in prosperity and income levels between the states…

I heard recently that there is a separate, lower minimum wage for people with disabilities, which I was pretty shocked and disgusted to learn. I also heard that there is a separate minimum wage for tipped jobs - something in the region of a paltry $2.50/h, if I recall correctly?

The tipped jobs minimum wage is a bit odd in that its not the actual minimum wage, its more of the minimum amount a business can pay an employee that otherwise earns at least the traditional minimum wage via tips. So if you're not pulling in enough tips to meet the federal or state minimum wage, the business has to make up that shortfall.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#330

Post by JeremyNT » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 6:45 PM UTC

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #297

conductr wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've come to believe flipping is a major problem, at least in my locale. A $300K house gets $50K of "improvements", then the investors needs $100K profit after commissions are covered and so we're in the $500K range for the next buyer and very little value was added. It's often the proverbial "lipstick on a pig" house after the renovations. There's little to no regulations on flippers. They can be DIY people that hav…

How is that the flipper's fault? Ultimately, a regular home owner is buying the finished product. If they are willing to pay more for better housing, what's the problem? Of course, they're not willing to "pay more". Interest rates get lowered, and they can keep the same payment and buy more house. The reason flipping is attractive is because Central Banks push up house prices - which flippers capture on leverage. If…

Flippers have capital (or the ability to be extensively leveraged) and they can quickly gobble up the unimproved inventory such that there is very little "unimproved" inventory available for regular homebuyers. They even spam people with unsolicited offers and try to buy unimproved houses before they hit the market at all!

The time that flippers spend "improving" a house is time that the house isn't on the market at all for a potential resident.

Don't think of flippers as individual actors on small scales repairing and reselling a house here or there, think of companies that literally buy whole neighborhoods (hundreds of houses) and rent some of them out while they tear down or "improve" the rest. They can afford to keep the rental price high and/or let it sit vacant because the real money will be in the eventual sale.

You're right that they "gain" partly from inflation, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. It's a combination of large operations (and a large number of smaller operations) that essentially act as a cartel that effectively limits the supply of available homes for purchase.