Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

321–330 of 688 posts

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#321

Post by Communitivity »

taylodl wrote: post #201
tadzik_ wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If $SPY dropped 40% we'd all call it a crash. This isn't that different If $SPY was 40% up since last month, would that be normal? ETH is still currently higher than its value from April 19th. Cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile. This isn't that far from normal.

> Cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile. This isn't that far from normal. If that's true then cryptocurrency is pretty much worthless to use as currency. A desired property of currency is to not have wild fluctuations in value on a weekly or monthly bases.

Currency is a broad term, like service. Like many broad terms, it is often misused and that leads to the broader meaning. Currency can be used for different things. In one meaning, currency is a tradable and stable store of value. This used to mean it was backed by some recognized valuable commodity, such as gold, but that is no longer the case. In another meaning, currency is a thing that is traded and has an expectation of growing value over time. The more proper term for that is an investment property. Bitcoin is not (yet) the first type of currency, it is the second type.

It's an investment. Detractors cite electricity usage, but overall it uses much less electricity than the traditional banking system. Also, the value of the second type of currency is only the value that people believe it has in their transactions, which is no different than the US Dollar. Since we went off the gold standard, the US dollar only has the value we believe it has. Part of that belief is that the US Dollar is rightly a bit more stable because it is artificially manipulated by the FED to control inflation.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#322

Post by lend000 »

ProjectArcturis wrote: post #56

Bitcoin is the ultimate, purely financial object. It has no revenues or profits. The supply is fixed -- unlike, say, gold, where high prices mean people will eventually start digging mines, BTC supply is entirely price-inelastic. The only thing that determines BTC price is demand. And over the past 13 years, we've seen reflexivity at work: The price has gone up, so more people want it, so the price goes up further, a…

Agree. For studying pure markets and financial psychology, there is no better case study.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#323

Post by rawtxapp »

paulpauper wrote: post #165

BItocin has among the worst risk-adjusted returns of any investment. I would not touch it. NASDAQ 100 and or fang portfolio way better.

~300% return YoY is bad now? Just put a small % of your portfolio and if it fails, not a big loss, but if it increases at those rates, it'll naturally end up becoming a large % of your portfolio.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#324

Post by arcticbull »

midhhhthrow wrote: post #279
arcticbull wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a substantially-manipulated negative-sum distributed Ponzi scheme. The most blatant example of a naked emperor I've seen in my lifetime. And it consumes the energy of Argentina to achieve as much work as a Raspberry Pi.

Where else should people invest their money? Stocks are extremely overvalued According to the buffet ratio And bonds/cash will soon be completely worthless by the time the gov and feds of the world are done with them Real estate is extremely difficult to buy and sell. Execution is hard. There’s a desperate need for a store of value, now more than ever (gov of the world are abandoning their obligation of providing a s…

Personally, volatility aside, I don't invest in non-productive assets (be it gold, or other precious metals).

I have a risk appetite so I keep my IRA in this [1]. Then, for taxed investments, I have a core portfolio of the stock from companies I've worked at, against which I sell covered calls. I sell futures options for passive income (not all the time, I'm sitting this move out, for instance). I carved out a chunk for my financial advisor to manage more conservatively.

NFA, of course.

[1] https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=272007

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#325

Post by imtringued »

midhhhthrow wrote: post #279
arcticbull wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a substantially-manipulated negative-sum distributed Ponzi scheme. The most blatant example of a naked emperor I've seen in my lifetime. And it consumes the energy of Argentina to achieve as much work as a Raspberry Pi.

Where else should people invest their money? Stocks are extremely overvalued According to the buffet ratio And bonds/cash will soon be completely worthless by the time the gov and feds of the world are done with them Real estate is extremely difficult to buy and sell. Execution is hard. There’s a desperate need for a store of value, now more than ever (gov of the world are abandoning their obligation of providing a s…

> Where else should people invest their money?

Pretty much any low volatility/world ETF or streak based ETFs (paying out an increasing dividend). If you trust nobody except yourself then get gold.

>And bonds/cash will soon be completely worthless by the time the gov and feds of the world are done with them

Actually, the worst thing that could happen to the US economy is that the USD goes up in value.

>There’s a desperate need for a store of value, now more than ever (gov of the world are abandoning their obligation of providing a stable fiat)

Why would anyone want to buy a "store of value" that is extremely volatile? You put in $1000 and you aren't unlikely to get $1000 back out, either you make a big loss or big gain. People love shouting that assets going up is inflation but when they go down nobody thinks "hyperdeflation".

>Do you see any better solution than crypto?

Even gold is better at the "store of value" meme than Bitcoin. People buy Bitcoin because it goes up, that's all there is to it.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#327

Post by rawtxapp »

woeirua wrote: post #154
End_the_Fed wrote: post #44

This is what a healthy market looks like, without circuit breakers, without Powell stepping in, without the POTUS making emergency statements to contain the panic. Price discovery at its finest. When you buy crypto you are effectively voting with your wallet against the Fed and all those phony protection systems Every day more and more people are understanding the machinations of the Fed. BTFD

Let’s see you stick to your guns when BTC loses 95% of its value in a week.

It already has done that many times over (20k->3k back in 2017). And people who would have kept buying would be in a great place right now.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#328

Post by Grustaf »

notyourday wrote: post #289
ramijames wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that during crashes like this one, what you see is everyone moving their crypto holdings to stablecoins. The intent is to wait things out and then buy back in and profit during the next cycle.

So trading pink seashells for grey seashells?

Sea shells have intrinsic value, cryptos don't.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#329

Post by broighbrobroigh »

eldaisfish wrote: post #135
tippytippytango wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stocks are a big Ponzi scheme too. Most people buying stocks aren’t interested in buying cash flow like stocks were meant to provide. People want capital gains. You only get capital gains when there’s a greater fool. I’m not against owning stocks. I’m just as concentrated as you. But, let’s not confuse luck and genius. We are just hoping to be the one that gets out before the music stops.

Please don’t “both sides” this. Stocks are not a Ponzi scheme because funds from early investors are not flowing to fresh investors. There is the actual value created by a company together with its future prospects and assets that combine to determine a stock price. Crypto meanwhile has the backing of whom and what assets?

Actual value is a true Scotsman.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#330

Post by cool_dude85 »

Communitivity wrote: post #321
taylodl wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile. This isn't that far from normal. If that's true then cryptocurrency is pretty much worthless to use as currency. A desired property of currency is to not have wild fluctuations in value on a weekly or monthly bases.

Currency is a broad term, like service. Like many broad terms, it is often misused and that leads to the broader meaning. Currency can be used for different things. In one meaning, currency is a tradable and stable store of value. This used to mean it was backed by some recognized valuable commodity, such as gold, but that is no longer the case. In another meaning, currency is a thing that is traded and has an expect…

>In another meaning, currency is a thing that is traded and has an expectation of growing value over time.

What? A painting is currency? A house is currency? No.

Post reply on HN