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Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

reuters.com

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Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#321

Post by TedPetrou »

wittyreference wrote: post #313
TedPetrou wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it also make sense that they are currently ranked #2 in the world in cases per million in the last week for countries with more that 1 million population? This is even after a down week in cases. Next door Lebanon is seeing cases fall at the same or faster pace and they peaked at the same time as Israel. Lebanon has yet to start vaccinating. Case fatality rate has not fallen either. You would expect a huge drop…

Israel's issue has been and continues to be a very large orthodox and ultra-orthodox community which has flouted all quarantine laws and appeals to vaccination, in a tiny dense country where said orthodox and ultra-orthodox can't be meaningfully avoided. That said, their statistics regarding the symptomatic case rate speak for themselves.

So you admit that total case numbers are not very good, particularly compared to a neighboring country that has not started vaccinating. Thats a good first step.

Scapegoating the orthodox jews? More than 92% of 70+ in Israel have received both doses of the vaccine. Are you blaming the high number of cases on this very small segment?

What happens when elderly all cause mortality is elevated substantially in 2021? This is the ultimate test for the vaccine.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#322

Post by TedPetrou »

wittyreference wrote: post #312
TedPetrou wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excess mortality for the elderly in Israel in the last 6 weeks is the highest it's been (by far) in the last 5 years. Check euroMOMO https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

That was a helpful link! Your comment is surprisingly true! And utterly out of context. As of today, Israel's deaths - both for the 65-and-overs and all-ages - is nearly down to its historical normal range, per your link. Going back two weeks there was a huge peak at a z-score of 9.7; and going back eight weeks it was at a statistically anomalous low, at a z-score of -2.2. I'd be tempted to point out the period of th…

You spoke too soon and I hope you issue a correction. The last week of euroMOMO isn't nearly fully updated. All countries see an enormous drop in the last week that is then pulled back up to the actual level in the following weeks of released data. Did you notice the yellow background and the "Corrected for delay in registration".

Edit: Here is an animation that shows the usual correction - https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1350079943863115777

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#323

Post by nindalf »

ImaCake wrote: post #192
throwaway4good wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The comment that got flag-killed linked to the wikipedia of Marek's disease. A disease that resides amongst chickens for which there exists a vaccine that prevents the disease but not the spread of the virus. And is an example of a scary story (told by antivaxxers I assume) where the introduction of a vaccine allowed the virus flourish and turn itself into a much deadlier form it otherwise would not have had.

Well COVID is already a near-worst case scenario for human civilization. Anything much more nasty would not leave any room for denialism (and presumably would burn itself out fast), anything much less nasty would have meant double the Flu hospitalisation burden and no lockdowns. It is hard to see an outcome where the vaccines make things worse, but I admit biology is full of surprises.

I hate to be the “it could be worse guy” but it’s possible for it to evolve to a strain that has a higher death rate. Perhaps one that kills younger people as well as older people. Things could always be worse.

Sorry for being a Debbie downer.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#324

Post by corty »

corty wrote: post #274
EvgeniyZh wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm looking on case fatality rate: cases and death count are too volatile and depend on many factors. My hypothesis (it's not mine but I agree with it): if population with high death risks is disproportionately vaccinated, at the level it can make visible effect on case count for this population, it should have effect on case fatality rate. Of course, multiple factors can reduce/slow down the decline, but it should b…

Hm, yes, I think you are right. That is odd.

After some thinking, I've got a theory: Deaths lag behind the infections by say 4 weeks. If the infections are falling after a peak, deaths are still rising or plateauing for 4 weeks. That means the ratio deaths/infections will produce a peak that lags the infection peak by 4 weeks, because the divisor is getting smaller while the dividend is still rising. Now if you look at the numbers for Israel, there is a plateau in the CFR for the last few weeks, it looks quite flat. However, e.g. Germany or Austria do have a pronounced peak there. The UK slightly less so.

So I would argue that we do see the CFR being lower than the peak we would expect without working vaccinations.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#325

Post by IfOnlyYouKnew »

ilkkao wrote: post #29
ancymon wrote: post #17

As I understand, for example in Europe Pfizer is producing vaccines in single factory and not in sufficient number. Why production doesn't happen in more places? Couldn't they sell license to other European pharmaceutical companies to produce it? Is production process so unique it can't be replicated in other places?

I've been wondering this myself too. Lockdowns are so expensive that I'd assume every unconventional method to expand the production is taken into use. The situation is bad but not so bad that competitors could be forced to work together it seems. I expect that the amount of angry people in EU will peak in spring or early summer when UK, US, and Israel are mostly back to normal and we are not.

The US just signed two contracts for additional deliveries of 100 million doses each of two vaccines (Pfizer & Moderna, I believe?)

I doubt that these companies can make such deliveries without first fulfilling the contracts they have with the EU. I looked it up at the time, and they have. contracts with hundreds of millions of doses for the EU.

So what I believe will happen is that deliveries will grow extremely fast at some point before July, when new production capacities come online.

Consider what would happen if capacities increased dramatically: any advantage some countries have right now will shrink, when measured in time, from "months" to maybe just a few weeks. The real end of lockdowns may well still coincide.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#326

Post by ed_balls »

TedPetrou wrote: post #307
baybal2 wrote: post #2

Reassuring news! A hope for some normalcy coming with ongoing vaccinations.

Excess mortality for the elderly in Israel in the last 6 weeks is the highest it's been (by far) in the last 5 years. Check euroMOMO https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Keep it mind that without Covid there will be more death than in previous years. Baby boomers are dying.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#327

Post by throwawayy1112 »

hef19898 wrote: post #277
helge9210 wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As for being anti vax, the vaccine is practically being forced down their throats. This. I very much believe in vaccines in general and me and my whole family are vaccinated according to calendar, but getting injection of something that is still at phase 2 trials, created using technology never used before without information on long term effects is something else.

All vaccines are properly approved in the EU. There are millions of people vaccinated world wide. I'd say the sample size is big enough to be sure. And long term effects take effect not years after the vaccination, the carry on that long. So any long term effects manifest within weeks and months. And so far there haven't been any. At least not beyond what other vaccines and medication has.

> So any long term effects manifest within weeks and months.

So long-term effects should really be called short-term effects?

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#328

Post by jMyles »

ImaCake wrote: post #192
throwaway4good wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The comment that got flag-killed linked to the wikipedia of Marek's disease. A disease that resides amongst chickens for which there exists a vaccine that prevents the disease but not the spread of the virus. And is an example of a scary story (told by antivaxxers I assume) where the introduction of a vaccine allowed the virus flourish and turn itself into a much deadlier form it otherwise would not have had.

Well COVID is already a near-worst case scenario for human civilization. Anything much more nasty would not leave any room for denialism (and presumably would burn itself out fast), anything much less nasty would have meant double the Flu hospitalisation burden and no lockdowns. It is hard to see an outcome where the vaccines make things worse, but I admit biology is full of surprises.

Wait 'til you hear about antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#329

Post by jb775 »

baybal2 wrote: post #2

Reassuring news! A hope for some normalcy coming with ongoing vaccinations.

Serious question: How do we know any of this reporting is true?

There's no data sources provided, no way to check follow up health (i'e. what if these people all dropped dead a week later), no way to prove the data isn't a complete fabrication, etc. Also, they make sure to use dynamic terms so we can't be sure these numbers have any valuable meaning at all (e.g. were Covid tests with drastically different cycle counts used?). Not to mention all of this reporting is praising a single vaccine producer in a billion dollar industry.

I just read "How to Lie with Statistics" by Darrell Huff and this whole thing is the epitome of a manipulatable situation.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#330

Post by pault »

dennis_jeeves wrote: post #286
EvgeniyZh wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd expect that case fatality rate would significantly reduce after 60+ population (which is 90%+ of deaths) is vaccinated. However, even though more than 80% of 60+ got second dose already, case fatality rate is approximately the same. I don't have any good explanation for that.

>I don't have any good explanation for that. A good explanation is that the vaccine is not working. ( people are in denial) I looked at the Pfizer numbers and my conclusion is the it's doing nothing.

It will take 6-8 weeks after large scale vaccination to start seeing the results. Deaths usually occur six weeks after infection, and it takes a week to reach full immunity after vaccination.
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