Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

321–330 of 371 posts

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#321

Post by tanyatik »

siliconvalley1 wrote: post #302
SpaceRaccoon wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an important distinction. > one of his henchmen There are various clans of power in Russia, and not all of them are loyal, or report, to Putin. Navalny had a lot of enemies. > complacent It's likely. The alternative could lead to some serious instability. For example, evidence suggests Kadyrov took out Nemtsov, but holding Kadyrov accountable could lead to chaos in Chechnya. Is it worth it? This is realpolitik.

You're failing occams razor. On one hand we have Putin who is very publically Navalny's primary antagonist who also has the means and obvious motive to poison him with Novichuk. On the other some nameless "enemies" who also somehow have the means to build a lab sophisticated enough to produce Novichuk without killing themselves or the people in a large radius of their lab and also access to Mercenaries/Assassins/ex-G…

Navalny does have a lot of enemies: if you look at this page https://fbk.info/investigations/ (use Google translate), you will see mentions of dozens of people. He keeps investigating into them in great detail and exposing their illegal wealth. They aren't that nameless, they are rich and powerful people, some of them are sure to have friends within GRU.

Not saying that Putin didn't order it, just pointing out that the group of people with motive and means to do it is bigger than just him.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#322

Post by SpaceRaccoon »

siliconvalley1 wrote: post #302
SpaceRaccoon wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an important distinction. > one of his henchmen There are various clans of power in Russia, and not all of them are loyal, or report, to Putin. Navalny had a lot of enemies. > complacent It's likely. The alternative could lead to some serious instability. For example, evidence suggests Kadyrov took out Nemtsov, but holding Kadyrov accountable could lead to chaos in Chechnya. Is it worth it? This is realpolitik.

You're failing occams razor. On one hand we have Putin who is very publically Navalny's primary antagonist who also has the means and obvious motive to poison him with Novichuk. On the other some nameless "enemies" who also somehow have the means to build a lab sophisticated enough to produce Novichuk without killing themselves or the people in a large radius of their lab and also access to Mercenaries/Assassins/ex-G…

And yet why did they let him be flown to Germany for treatment?

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#323

Post by shostack »

pvg wrote: post #293
BrianOnHN wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dang, I think that's a solid response. Thank you. The theory behind SSM seems well thought out. I think it would be helpful to enlighten people about the SSM when noting that a response is breaking the rules for an accusation of astroturfing. For me, I think a brief explanation that well formed arguments are the only defense against an SSM would have removed a feeling of helplessness derived from reading your initial…

The theory behind SSM seems well thought out. And it's fun to extend in the obvious ways. For instance, what if a SSM (an 'essessum', as they are often referred to in the technical literature) is orchestrating a campaign to write comments insinuating astroturfery into HN threads? After all, taken as a group such comments look very much like the kind of commentary a nefarious corporate or state actor might promote, as…

As someone looking to learn more, can you suggest any specific technical literature on the topic that digs further into this?

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#324

Post by [deleted] »

siliconvalley1 wrote: post #302
SpaceRaccoon wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an important distinction. > one of his henchmen There are various clans of power in Russia, and not all of them are loyal, or report, to Putin. Navalny had a lot of enemies. > complacent It's likely. The alternative could lead to some serious instability. For example, evidence suggests Kadyrov took out Nemtsov, but holding Kadyrov accountable could lead to chaos in Chechnya. Is it worth it? This is realpolitik.

You're failing occams razor. On one hand we have Putin who is very publically Navalny's primary antagonist who also has the means and obvious motive to poison him with Novichuk. On the other some nameless "enemies" who also somehow have the means to build a lab sophisticated enough to produce Novichuk without killing themselves or the people in a large radius of their lab and also access to Mercenaries/Assassins/ex-G…

[deleted]

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#325

Post by 1MachineElf »

mikeyouse wrote: post #178
lazyjones wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may have missed that the elusive WireCard CEO Jan Marsalek had the formula too. It's not a huge secret that random billionaires can't buy. Some people apparently believe the spin from some low-quality media that using or accusing of using Novitchok is basically proof Russia did it. It says more about their naivety than anything else. https://www.ft.com/content/941a9a2e-88df-4a66-9b3c-670bb7eb4...

Having the "formula" for a chemical weapon in no way grants you the ability to manufacture it.

True. You need a facility equipped and capable of producing Novichok. Think of Porton Down, for example. Conveniently located just miles away from Salisbury.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#326

Post by nickpp »

caiobegotti wrote: post #213

I'm just eager for some international stability as the next person and I don't want the Cold War back (and I'd hope for a more Europe'zed world to be honest) but it's incredible how much reach of Russia and China tentacles the US allows these days. As a third-world citizen I'm very much surprised the US is basically on its knees hoping the two nations don't punch too hard.

After complaining for years that the USA was the world's cop, now we get to see how the world looks like without that cop. Not pretty.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#327

Post by caiobegotti »

nickpp wrote: post #326
caiobegotti wrote: post #213

I'm just eager for some international stability as the next person and I don't want the Cold War back (and I'd hope for a more Europe'zed world to be honest) but it's incredible how much reach of Russia and China tentacles the US allows these days. As a third-world citizen I'm very much surprised the US is basically on its knees hoping the two nations don't punch too hard.

After complaining for years that the USA was the world's cop, now we get to see how the world looks like without that cop. Not pretty.

I grew up under this rhetoric for those years you mention and I still think having a kind of Team America: World Police in real life is much worse and I don't want that back. But these are not mutually exclusive issues because super powers are supposed to balance each other out like the system of balances and checks with independent powers of a democracy. I like to think the world is on average a big democracy and no single super power should be its cop but China and Russia pretty much represent a joint state of affairs that is detrimental to every freaking human being. To see the US on its kees like I said is pretty depressing to the balances and checks expectations we all used to have.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#329

Post by [deleted] »

scottlocklin wrote: post #316
lightgreen wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There was reasonable reason to believe Berezovsky was responsible for the Litvinenko poisoning No there were no reasons to believe Berezovsky poisoned Litvinenko. Litvinenko was the one who revealed attempt to kill Berezovsky. Berezovsky and Litvinenko worked together against Putin. There was no motive for Berezovsky to kill Litvinenko. In addition to that: Berezovsky was far less powerful when Litvinenko was poiso…

Yeah thanks a lot for the completely citation and content free comment, Mr 77th brigade or whoever you are. The evidence: Litvinenko and Berezovsky had a falling out, and Litvineko's newest scheme was to run blackmail on various russian oligarchs, possibly including Berezovsky[0]. Berezovsky was no angel and is well, nobody ever proved it, but was strongly suspected to have assassinated an unauthorized biographer[1]…

[deleted]

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#330

Post by mhh__ »

tim333 wrote: post #159
ceejayoz wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Russian defector, poisoned by Russian intelligence agents using a chemical only the Russians have? Who do you think?

Though it remains a question of which Russians in particular. Especially with Navalny it seems a bit crude for Putin to have ordered it.

He was a KGB officer what do you expect him to do?
Post reply on HN