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3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

wsj.com

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Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#321

Post by danharaj »

mrkramer wrote: post #136
baron_harkonnen wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After the depression the US emerged as the global hegemon because of major shifts in power that happened as a part of WWII. The US was uniquely adapted to grow to be the global super power at the same time that European nations were taking a huge hit from the war. I suspect this will ultimately lead to China as the new hegemon. We're seeing key advantages to the Chinese state that the US cannot adapt to. Decades of p…

Germany lost 2 World Wars and today it has greater GDP than UK by $1 trillion. It doesn't matter who is hit harder it matters whose economy is more efficient and has more innovations.

Nothing will ever sway people like you from neoliberal rhetoric, huh?

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#322

Post by mensetmanusman »

chatmasta wrote: post #282
baron_harkonnen wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After the depression the US emerged as the global hegemon because of major shifts in power that happened as a part of WWII. The US was uniquely adapted to grow to be the global super power at the same time that European nations were taking a huge hit from the war. I suspect this will ultimately lead to China as the new hegemon. We're seeing key advantages to the Chinese state that the US cannot adapt to. Decades of p…

I’m not sure about this. China is, rightfully, being blamed for the initial outbreak of the virus and their failure to contain it. I think when the dust settles, we’re going to see a rapid decoupling from China as countries look inward to strengthen their domestic supply chains. I have a hard time seeing China emerging as a winner from this crisis.

This.

China cares for its people by imprisoning them with brute technology and camps?

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#323

Post by HappySweeney »

scottLobster wrote: post #285
HappySweeney wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If this lockdown continues indefinitely the death numbers from the economic fallout will likely eclipse those of the pandemic. Seeing that doing nothing will likely lead to lead to millions of deaths, how would the lockdown possibly kill more than that? Are you under the impression people will just willingly starve to death, or that fighting over food will get so bad that millions of people will die?

First of all the "millions of deaths" comes from one model. There are many others and we haven't tested enough to know the true spread or lethality of the virus in a general population. It's quite possible that many people have already had covid-19 and were completely asymptomatic, which would make the death rate look much less scary. Anyone who tells you with certainty that "millions will die" is going off incomplet…

The millions of deaths comes from most models, which is why governments the world over are willing to endure economic devastation. Also, we are talking about the US specifically, so bringing in the worldwide death toll from 5th order effects (why not 20th?) seems disingenuous.

Finally, the UK changed their strategy away from sequestering the 70+ population because Imperial College told them that would only halve their death toll, and it would still remain solidly in the millions (for a country of 66 million).

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#324

Post by Retric »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #315
arcadeparade wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

syphilis was also caused by globalization! i hope many travel restrictions become permanent. ban cruises, make tourism difficult and expensive, cut off travel totally between the hemispheres. nature is being completely destroyed by human activity, this is an opportunity to reverse it.

If you're worried about the environment you can just add a carbon recapture tax to gas. Banning travel between large areas is ridiculous and wouldn't happen. Especially when a policy of quarantine during outbreaks would be equally effective with a vastly smaller cost.

Quarantine completely failed to prevent what was a highly localized disease globally in 2 months. We need to accept it’s simply ineffective across international borders unless draconian measures are applied before they seem required. We might get through this with 100,000 people dying globally or 100,000,000 it’s completely unknown at this point. But, should the second happen expect some significant changes to happen for years if not decades.

PS: China’s case fatality rate broke 4%, though they likely undercounted cases by ~50% if not more.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#325

Post by vsareto »

dpcan wrote: post #223

Being a sole proprietor / contractor right now feels hopeless. Nobody is spending money with me right now, projects on hold, no possible way of filing for unemployment. It's worrisome. Thankfully my wife is still working - but she's an administrator at a Nursing Home and people there are starting to get tested - and she's panicking. They are days from having no nurses. She's worried about cleaning crews being sick. S…

I don't think you'll be hearing much about nursing homes: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/03/feds-decline-to-...

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#326

Post by nemo44x »

bpicolo wrote: post #290
wmeredith wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in permanent overload It won't be permanent. It will be like a forest fire and kill a lot of people and be horrible, but will eventually die down due to heard immunity.

Doctors have passed from the illness, too. Even young, healthy ones. Stress and lack of sleep hurt the immune system.

I wonder how much the viral load affects this? People working in these conditions are at a high risk of inhaling a large amount of virus at different times.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#327

Post by treyfitty »

throwaway_USD wrote: post #242
treyfitty wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why’s that? I see that the SP500 is rising... but why is this “good news” for businesses?

The danger was businesses losing customers (revenue/income), which these initial numbers confirm...but on the other hand these jobless folks (and the whole country)just took out a $6T loan, of which $5.75T is going to these businesses ($1.75 will not have to be paid back and $4T will be interest free loans, and likely in may cases these companies will actually have negative interest rates, in other words they will ma…

But it's been confirmed that stock buybacks will not be allowed for companies receiving a bailout. Am I missing something more here?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-stimulus-packa...

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#328

Post by _curious_ »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #57
shripadk wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And maybe - just maybe - it's time everybody took another look at the UBI debate, again. Doesn't UBI directly result in inflation and cause currency devaluation? If the money that you hold loses its value (because everyone has at the very least the same amount of money as a basic, consistent income) then it is worth nothing in the end. It is as good as having no money in my humble opinion. Money has to be valuable…

You would have to implement it in a way that redistributed wealth, i.e. increase marginal tax rates. The goal is to make sure everyone is housed, fed, and educated. One option is to just give them housing, food, and education. Another is to give people money and let them choose. Yet another is to loan the money and to put them in debt forever.

The goal is to make sure everyone is housed, fed, and educated. One option is to just give them housing, food, and education. Another is to give people money and let them choose. Yet another is to loan the money and to put them in debt forever.

It's a noble goal. What about exercising the option of personal responsibility and agency of choice? (D) none of the above.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#329

Post by alephnan »

wpietri wrote: post #9

And as an econ/business reporter points out, this should be seen as the lower bound on the true number of lost job, because there are a lot of reasons people didn't file, including confusion, overwhelmed systems, and many lost jobs not qualifying: https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1243147516784324608

https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/18/21185260/unemployment-insuran...

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#330

Post by Dylan16807 »

Retric wrote: post #324
Dylan16807 wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're worried about the environment you can just add a carbon recapture tax to gas. Banning travel between large areas is ridiculous and wouldn't happen. Especially when a policy of quarantine during outbreaks would be equally effective with a vastly smaller cost.

Quarantine completely failed to prevent what was a highly localized disease globally in 2 months. We need to accept it’s simply ineffective across international borders unless draconian measures are applied before they seem required. We might get through this with 100,000 people dying globally or 100,000,000 it’s completely unknown at this point. But, should the second happen expect some significant changes to happen…

What country even quarantined everyone coming in on a plane?

I might have been unclear, but I was suggesting quarantine for everyone coming in, as an alternative to banning travel forever.

Quarantine set up once you already have an outbreak is uh, a different matter.

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