Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#321

Post by woodandsteel » Fri, Jan 31, 2020, 2:58 AM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #231

zaroth wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually there’s a third option which has been discussed on their financial calls. Their capital efficiency has markedly increased. To put it less glamorously, they burned boatloads of money chasing “alien dreadnaught” style fully automated production, and after recognizing that failure (better late than never) they now find they are able to build out new production lines at a fraction of the first line’s cost.

Maybe. My bet is that they have been underinvesting in order to meet financial results, and that that will catch up to them. Looking at other financial statement history, this seems like a safe bet.

It is really hard to say they are underinvesting when they just opened a new factory and have a new vehicle, the Y, that just started production.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#322

Post by grecy » Fri, Jan 31, 2020, 3:19 AM UTC

reitzensteinm wrote: post #313

grecy wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Press release for what?

This: "Mercedes actually just put out a press release that said they can't build enough electric cars because they can't build enough batteries, because Tesla acquired the company they were going to use in 2016. "

Here's the original (in german)

https://teslamag.de/news/betriebsrat-tesla-ist-mitschuld-an-...

And translated

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/euob34/the_cri...

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#323

Post by reitzensteinm » Fri, Jan 31, 2020, 4:26 AM UTC

grecy wrote: post #322

reitzensteinm wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This: "Mercedes actually just put out a press release that said they can't build enough electric cars because they can't build enough batteries, because Tesla acquired the company they were going to use in 2016. "

Here's the original (in german) https://teslamag.de/news/betriebsrat-tesla-ist-mitschuld-an-... And translated https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/euob34/the_cri...

That's not a press release from Mercedes, and given that Mercedes denied the core allegation that production would be halved this year, I would probably give them the benefit of the doubt on the rest...

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#324

Post by AtlasBarfed » Fri, Jan 31, 2020, 5:37 AM UTC

Kbelicius wrote: post #292

chemmail wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that all old car manufacturers are treating EV like the enemy, which it is to their old ways. Same thing happened with Kodak. Imagine your art, your soul, your heritage of combustion engines ripped away. You spend decades, centuries even, perfecting the internal combustion engine. Your pride and joy is now obsolete. You can see why it was so hard for everyone to switch over. Almost all your cumulative…

> The problem is that all old car manufacturers are treating EV like the enemy, which it is to their old ways. In what way are they treating EV like the enemy? > Same thing happened with Kodak. No it did not. What happened to Kodak was that its primary source of profit, film, was threatened by new technological developments. That is in no way comparable with the situation of car manufacturers. > You spend decades, ce…

The management of car manufacturers are full of dinosaurs and execs that hate evs due to compliance regs.

The dealer networks are outright hostile to them since maintenance revenue is reduced so much.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#325

Post by AtlasBarfed » Fri, Jan 31, 2020, 5:51 AM UTC

saghm wrote: post #112

heisenbergs wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

simple back of the envelope calculation: in 3 years time, they will have 3 giga factories (+1 in upstate new york), each of which should be scale to 500k cars. at an average resale price of $50k (might be a little lower, but let's keep it simple), that's $75B in revenue. at a 10% profit margin, that's $7.5B profit. let's presume a 20x factor as a growth stock, you have an evaluation of $150B, which it's currently tre…

This also assumes that there's demand for all of these $50,000 cars, which isn't necessarily the case.

Battery cost is plummeting, Tesla is at the forefront of that. They can collect all the extra margin, or drop prices as needed

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#326

Post by AtlasBarfed » Fri, Jan 31, 2020, 5:52 AM UTC

joshualross wrote: post #225

saghm wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This also assumes that there's demand for all of these $50,000 cars, which isn't necessarily the case.

Currently, the demand is still strong enough that the wait time on a new TM3 is 4-8 weeks. That may decrease, but right now Tesla can't make them fast enough.

The Y will have more demand. Crossover rules the us market

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#327

Post by AtlasBarfed » Fri, Jan 31, 2020, 5:55 AM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #246

m463 wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They could sell a lot of semis and cybertrucks if they were ready. And just think, they could put a dashboard on the model 3 and sales would probably double.

Neither of those cars exist.

The Tesla semi is a whole new game in battery production. 300kwhr packs? If tech gets good, Tesla could find buyers for 1000 kwhr packs.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#328

Post by AtlasBarfed » Fri, Jan 31, 2020, 5:59 AM UTC

mikorym wrote: post #58

sergiomattei wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stocks sometimes aren't rational. It's just speculation/hype.

I agree with your statement, but maybe it's more accurate to say its speculation/hype about future return on investment. I think the real question (for me at least) is whether that return on investment is in share price increase (like Amazon) or in dividends and the value of assets (like the majority of other public companies).

India and China have to go full electric or global warming will be insane.

You're talking 3 billion people that all want cars.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#329

Post by philwelch » Fri, Jan 31, 2020, 6:26 AM UTC

ryandrake wrote: post #305

philwelch wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks stupid, the trapezoidal side walls around the truck bed actually make it much less usable, and it looks stupid. The whole problem with eg the BMW i-Series or most other electric cars is that they are designed in a silly way that says, “look at me, I’m a weird electric car, I’m not a normal car at all, I’m willing to look like a total dork in order to virtue-signal about being eco-friendly”. Teslas just look…

Wel, that’s just like... your opinion, man. Seriously, the world has enough identical-looking sedans and identical-looking trucks. I can’t tell most major brands apart anymore until I see them up close.

Let me guess, you used to drive a PT Cruiser :)

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#330

Post by nickik » Fri, Jan 31, 2020, 9:19 AM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #300

nickik wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is important is that they can make money from selling lots of electric cars. While the other companies get horrifying margin on their electric car and they have no clue how to make money with them.

Can they? They had a loss of $800 million in 2019, and that’s with over $500 million in regulatory credit sales boosting that. The EV market still seems like it incinerates capital

They lost that money because they had to repay massive amount of debt early in the year. They did that successfully and once that debt was payed they were profitable.

What matters is that they produce lots of cars and the cars have a better then expected profit margin, focusing on anything else is simply foolish.