This Economist article points out some of the many small academic works that quibble over details with Piketty and Saez. But that's not anything new. The major points of their work, and especially of Piketty's monumental _Capital for the 21st century_ still stand: that capital is a positive feedback loop in a way that labor is not; that mid-20th-century laws that put brakes on this feedback loop have been removed; th…
A key thing about the mid-century is that the actual manufacturing capabilities of most of the world (with the sole exception of the US basically) were completed destroyed by WWII. Britain and Germany were devastated. This means that in the 1950's the US was essentially acting as the sole industrial power at full strength serving the rest of the world. We were playing worldwide economics on easy mode: as if we were t…
Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality
321–330 of 367 posts
Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality
#322Earlier quoted context omitted.
Of course the technology exists to bring food to the desert. Move to california if you think this is what the hold up is.
California has ports and airports and... roads. People stay in the same places for a long time. Try delivering fresh produce to nomadic Bedouin tribes in the Eastern Sahara and you might find it a little trickier.
Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality
#323Earlier quoted context omitted.
Taxing capital incentivizes putting it to work. If you only tax gains then people can endlessly horde wealth. Taxing the wealth itself makes hording unappealing... I think.
But taxing capital is not possible and probably a bad idea. This will require you to list everything you own to the government who will then evaluate the worth of it. I really can't think of much else that's a worse violation of privacy. It will also make owning something expensive a bad idea, because you'll have to pay to own it. In fact, can you even say that you own it at that point? Aren't you basically renting i…
In addition to service, a serf was required to pay certain taxes and fees. Taxes were based on the assessed value of his lands and holdings.
Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality
#324Earlier quoted context omitted.
Presumably there are people who are being exploited in the world. But to claim in general poverty is a result of exploitation seems very questionable. Start with basics. People live in the woods, with nothing. Some start building a hut from sticks, others don't. The ones living in huts suddenly are richer than the ones who don't, even though they haven't taken anything away from the ones who don't have huts. And of t…
People in huts eventually band together into villages, villages start to trade goods with one another. Eventually the largest village is able to coerce (either using the threat of force via superior military or through infiltration, bribery subversion etc) the smaller villages into giving it the best deals. The largest village gets very rich while extracting all the resources and goods from the smaller villages aroun…
Also, with similarly bad faith you could say that when the first group was building their huts, the second group was sharpening their sticks. Once the huts were completed they used their sharpened sticks to coerce the richer people (those with huts) to give them huts too.
Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality
#325Earlier quoted context omitted.
Conflating the top 1% with the ultra-rich is another big problem. If we assume that most people achieve peak earning years between 45-50 years old, then about 30% of people end up in the top 1% at some point in their lives.
As I replied to someone else in this thread branch, the threshold for entering the 1%, at least in terms of income, is nearly $330K a year annually. The plain reading of your last sentence is that about 30% of people make that at some point in your life, which... doesn't strike me as very plausible. Are you talking about net worth instead? That's still an argument that 30% of people have over $10M in assets (in 2019…
Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality
#326A lot of this article reminded me of the techniques used by climate change deniers to sow doubt. Take for example the following: > Another correction concerns the tax reforms passed under Ronald Reagan in 1986. Apparent changes in top incomes around this reform account for about two-fifths of the total increase between 1962 and 2015 in the pre-tax incomes of the top 1% in Messrs Piketty and Saez’s estimates. Messrs A…
And demanding relatively drastic policy changes based on said theories, in comparison to policies influenced by other areas of science.
I could see that logic carrying over.
Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality
#327A lot of this article reminded me of the techniques used by climate change deniers to sow doubt. Take for example the following: > Another correction concerns the tax reforms passed under Ronald Reagan in 1986. Apparent changes in top incomes around this reform account for about two-fifths of the total increase between 1962 and 2015 in the pre-tax incomes of the top 1% in Messrs Piketty and Saez’s estimates. Messrs A…
>In essence this just says that it's possible the rich used to be overwhelmingly rich even before the Reagan era reforms, hence inequality might not have increased that much over the past decades. This is hardly comforting for the average person. While that may not be comforting, it does cast doubt on the idea that inequality is the cause of all our ills. Yes, it does smack of the science is not in yet argument - exc…
Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality
#328Earlier quoted context omitted.
Housing is capital
But not the kind of capital people usually think about when railing about billionaires and wealth taxes.
Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality
#329Earlier quoted context omitted.
Housing is already taxed. In the U.S., property taxes are about 17% of government revenue. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2013/06/29/l...
Property taxes are not wealth taxes, they are consumption taxes. You can easily tell this because a person who owns a home outright pays the same tax as someone who owns a similar home but has a large mortgage. These two people have different levels of wealth but pay the same tax. This is because their consumption is the same.
If you put that money in the bank, you'd only pay taxes on the cap gain, not on the capital itself.
Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality
#330This Economist article points out some of the many small academic works that quibble over details with Piketty and Saez. But that's not anything new. The major points of their work, and especially of Piketty's monumental _Capital for the 21st century_ still stand: that capital is a positive feedback loop in a way that labor is not; that mid-20th-century laws that put brakes on this feedback loop have been removed; th…
I'm a bit surprised that you included ad hominem accusations of bias and haterism given the adjectives in the first paragraph. :)
But, in seriousness, Piketty's work is pretty poor. The empirical data is now discounted [0], the `r > g` claim was debunked shortly after publication [1]. The fate of the latter claim seems fatal to Piketty's attempts to accurately model the world and prescribe solutions. For instance, capital depreciates as it ages, and can do so dramatically due to obsolescence or damage. Redeploying capital toward new uses is generally quite costly, due to the high inelasticities of capital. Labor is much more elastic to different tasks of production. (I should note that the inelasticity of "human capital" in the modern service-based economy, which is indeed a problem. "Learn to code" is a meme deployed by trolls, but it reflects a real economic reality. The increasing prevalence of human capital and its inelasticities also undercuts Picketty.)
Further, Piketty himself defines capital in such a way (he uses it essentially synonymously with wealth) that his argument is almost tautological, and also fails to account for wealth stored in e.g. real estate (or the works of Picasso, for that matter). Increases in real estate prices (driven almost entirely by well-understood microeconomic structural issues and not by some abstract macro mathematical inequality) account for the amount r exceeds g.
Any usual definition of capital emphasizes that it is a factor of production, not merely wealth. Capital is the fixed "stuff" we use to produce other stuff. It might be a dump truck or an assembly line process or even knowledge of C++. Housing stock almost certainly fails the factor of production test, and thus shouldn't be counted as capital (the status of a Picasso as a factor of production is an exercise left to the reader). (By analogy, labor is also defined as a factor of production, and doesn't include the value of leisure hours or time spent sleeping.) Piketty's book sales might not have been so high had he simply argued that fixed supplies of highly-demanded scarce resources tend to increase over time, and that land in a reurbanizing and NIMBY-ish period is by far the strongest such asset. Henry George said more insightful things about the same subject over a century before Piketty had an economics professorship. (I'm not arguing that George's solutions were great. I'm more enthusiastic about ideas like nuisance-based zoning as opposed to use-based: they seem to achieve the desired effects of stability and low inequality without a ton of extraction. I somehow doubt that Piketty would share this enthusiasm. [2][3])
Ultimately, if these small attacks of death by 1000 cuts on Piketty's work don't convince you (and I would characterize some of the attacks as quite substantial) that it was very flawed and probably just nonsense, then maybe ask yourself if any evidence whatsoever would convince you that Piketty is (broadly speaking) wrong.
[0] https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/social-science-histo...
[1] http://mattrognlie.com/piketty_diminishing_returns.pdf
[2] https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/08/la...
[3] https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/08/th...