321–330 of 671 posts
German economy shrinks : https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/14/business/germany-economy-... UK economy shrinks : https://metro.co.uk/2019/08/09/pound-plummets-uk-economy-shr...
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Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.
The Russians bailed him out and he’s been in their pocket ever since. In this particular case, that’s why the number of bankruptcies matter. In general, I agree with you.
There's a good Planet Money podcast on it as well: https://www.npr.org/2019/05/22/725893104/episode-914-trump-a...
It is also why the Trump family has preemptively sued Deutsche bank in an attempt to seal records and obstruct any investigation.
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My question is what is the point of the trade war. What does trump get from initiating/escalating it, or who is directing him to do it. Seems to be a net negative for all sectors of the economy.
You are making the error people always make with personalities like Trump. Assertive alpha signaling and mammalian dominance gestures tell the parts of our brain that haven't changed since we were small tree rats that "this person knows what they're talking about, trust them, follow them." These parts of the brain are primitive and emotional and can easily override the rational mind. This is why charisma tends to bea…
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My question is what is the point of the trade war. What does trump get from initiating/escalating it, or who is directing him to do it. Seems to be a net negative for all sectors of the economy.
There are two things China has been doing for years that the WTO hasn't put an end to. The stated goals of the trade war include stopping those, which I can - as anything but a fan of anything to do with Trump - actually agree need to stop. I'm far from certain the scale and breadth of tariffs involved are necessary to stop them, but I agree those two practices need to stop. One of those is outright IP theft. One esp…
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And things will be worse because China is also heading into recession. You know, you need sell all these products to somebody... And when US consumer stops buying new iPhones (or what ever) combined with recession then situation is going be really really tough. So this will be worse that 2008. Much worse. Back in 2008, China was growing and helping to ease the recession. I do not think China's economy will grow durin…
The Fed does not have the tools at its disposal that it did in 2008, they have been exhausted. The leadership on either side of the 2008 transition was much better at every level. Also, 2008 was a balance sheet depression that was more tractable to fix with monetary approaches. What is happening, right now, is literally what happened in the Great Depression (with the concurrent reemergence of nationalism) and is what…
Dates for WW2: 9/1/1939-9/2/1945
Dates for Great Depression: 10/29/1929 to 1939
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What consequence would you expect? Inflation? The Fed would probably welcome inflation right now. And, how does QE cause other players to lose their treasury holdings?
>The Fed would probably welcome inflation right now. I feel like this while correct will look funny in the context of history. I believe inflation will explode in the next 5 years with near zero interest rates and the fed printing money for all the programs we hear about during the recent debates.
The same arguments were made against the New Deal.
Time will tell whether recapitalizing the American educational system and/or cost-limiting health care is wise or foolish.
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Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.
Trump has created 515 businesses and only 11 of them failed. That's a 98.64% success rate. He has a better track record than Elon Musk by an order of magnitude.
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I think the difference this time around is that the largest tech companies (Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, to a lesser extent Amazon) are generating healthy profits. So while there is likely an issue with a lot of the unprofitable unicorns, the industry as a whole won't collapse.
Well, two of those companies survive largely on the basis of advertising, which is in turn financed through the Silicon Valley Venture Capital Machine. If that dried up, it would be Bad News.