Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’ • Hacker News Board

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#321

Post by eslaught » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 8:05 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #255

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the standard of self-driving becomes something akin to how airplanes fly, then weather will be a delay, bypass, or do not fly precondition to the execution of the flight plan. All this stuff about "it's right around the road" vs "it'll never happen" is all unspoken assumptions around what it means to take a "safe" "trip" "in a car" "driven" "autonomously". Safe? Compared to humans that are alert, humans with smart…

> I think what needs to happen is that you need programs tailored to specific routes/roads. As you drive any distance, you download/cache the programs for the routes and execute them. Wow. That's so obvious in retrospect. I wonder why I haven't considered it before, nor why I haven't read of it before either. I imagine having stationary "traffic controllers", semi- or completely automated, that keep real-time informa…

Am I the only one who's terrified of the security implications of such a system? You're talking about running (from the car's perspective) untrusted code on a fleet of cars, dynamically and in real time. Even if it's cryptographically signed or whatever, you're one or a handful of exploits away from remote attackers having the capability to crash every autonomous car, simultaneously, at least in a geographical region and possibly (inter)nationally.

If security matters today, it's going to matter orders of magnitude more in a world with autonomous cars.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#322

Post by wbrinkley » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 8:11 PM UTC

rwmj wrote: post #8

We don't need self-driving cars that can go anywhere (ie. level 5) for them to be widely useful. A car that only worked in bright sunshine on a preprogrammed set of roads would be immediately useful to me.

This. An unoccupied car should be able to find a parking spot at the mall or in a parking garage, or go from the airport terminal to the "economy" or "cell phone" lot by itself. And come back and pick me up. If it gets stuck, the app on my phone should alert me to come to the rescue.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#323

Post by Faark » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 8:12 PM UTC

treespace8 wrote: post #101

skywhopper wrote: post #41

This has been obvious all along to anyone who has ever driven or used a computer before and thought about the reality for more than a couple of minutes. But the press and VCs bought into the hype from the likes of Uber who needed to keep generating huge new investment to stay afloat and Tesla which is run by a delusional snake oil salesman who had a single hit with the Model S. The shocking examples of crazy unexpect…

I know this is far out there. But I believe the problem of fully autonomous anything via software is fundamentally impossible. The divide between analog and digital is just too big. Humans are underrated.

> fundamentally impossible

You are basically saying AI is fundamentally impossible. Could you explain what kind of magic in humans beside our simulateable physics is fundamentally impossible to imitate? I understand we might be a long way off of understanding how our minds work and there is no guarantee we can massively simplify those processes. But even an inefficient imitation of a human mind as seen in earlier sci-fy could bring lots of benefits. Saying fundamentally impossible seems like... well, wishful thinking, to say it nicely.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#324

Post by onlyrealcuzzo » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 8:13 PM UTC

HALtheWise wrote: post #166

When read literally, there is no way that any system ever, human or automatic, will be able to drive on "any road" with "perfect safety". Crazy freak accidents happen, and human drivers regularly aren't able to handle them. On top of that, most people just can't safely drive in thick fog, icy conditions, or pouring rain. No amount of intelligence will allow a car to drive through a sufficiently flooded street. Just l…

IFF autonomous cars can drive in certain conditions and on certain roads substantially more safely and cheaply, I think that'll cause roads and commuting patterns to adapt to the cars.

So even if it's a long way away from being able to replace the majority of cars in the way we use them today. The roads and way we use cars in the future might be different.

I'm not saying it will be. It's just something I rarely hear discussed.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#325

Post by m463 » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 8:14 PM UTC

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #209

ben_w wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It needs slightly more than that: when it fails, it needs to be able to demonstrate that no human would’ve succeeded in its place. This isn’t a moral or a technical issue, just public relations. If a system reduces road deaths from ~30,000 per year to 365 per year, but one of those deaths was it mistaking a grey skirt for an open road [1], there will still be calls for its use to be outlawed — basically what’s happen…

By "fail" you mean crash, or it detects that it's uncertainty gets too large and it pulls over safely, forcing you to wait or take over yourself? Insurance companies will force the adoption once they become proven safe. The added insurance costs for luddites will price them out of the market.

> Insurance companies

Because corporate profit is maximized by their accuracy, actuaries are the factual island in a sea of marketing proclamations, out of control media and silly regulations.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#326

Post by daveguy » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 8:15 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #304

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously, please automate highway driving first. You get all the benefits for shipping and efficiency and logistics, so the money is there. The problem is so much more simple, and there can be convergent infrastructure (embedded sensors, mesh network updates, higher standards of road quality). On long trips on highways it just kills me that I have to stare at the same image for hours basically, and that a program co…

I think the highway freight problem is also a good place for humans to act as a backup, since you more or less know when that will be needed (the beginning and the end). Also, a human driver on their 7th hour of driving is often not as alert as they normally would be, so the level of comparison is easier for AI to meet. Unfortunately, what the people paying for this want to achieve is the ability to not have to pay f…

I wonder if "launch zones" will be one of the first "modify the environment" solutions for public roads. A staging area where a driver can leave the truck that is to go on the highway. Some place very near the highway (even better if it is something like weigh station simple to enter and exit).

If there were enough of them and someone like Elon Musk with lots of eyes on the road via teslas could identify when the vehicles need human drivers (wrecks / construction / weather) then maybe the trucks approaching the human-need area could get off at one of the staging areas for a human to take over. It would help with the "human from beginning to end" problem that would require level 5 automation.

You might not even need to team up for eyes on the ground if you have lightweight drones regularly flying the routes back and forth.

One problem might be enough people to take over at a moments notice. Another problem might be drivers who only get periodic experience handling the truck. But it seems like a semi-feasible solution to get a step closer to highway freight automation.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#327

Post by acchow » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 8:15 PM UTC

casefields wrote: post #2

Nothing makes a huge group of us cringe more, than people saying it's just around the corner. The worst part is it also comes from people who should know better. >Waymo’s CEO, John Krafcik, has admitted that a self-driving car that can drive in any condition, on any road, without ever needing a human to take control—usually called a “level five” autonomous vehicle—will basically never exist. At the Wall Street Journa…

Is level 5 autonomous more or less likely to be achievable than cold fusion?

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#328

Post by beat » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 8:17 PM UTC

runarberg wrote: post #292

beat wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need transportation. A world of sitting on our butts in front of a computer isn't a solution to much of anything. Maybe we don't need to actually operate the vehicle, but we need the vehicle. I'm not walking halfway across the country just to visit my mother.

Whoa. Misunderstanding here. I’m not talking about eliminating transportation. That is just stupid. Alternative transportation from driving include: busses, trains, bikes, walking, trolleys, bicycles, ski-lifts, airplaines, taxis, boats, rollerskates, escalators, etc. The sum of these alternatives will almost always outweigh driving in terms of benefits with a notable exception of convenience. So if you are willing t…

Until you need to carry something with you - like luggage, or a baby.

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#329

Post by acchow » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 8:17 PM UTC

casefields wrote: post #2

Nothing makes a huge group of us cringe more, than people saying it's just around the corner. The worst part is it also comes from people who should know better. >Waymo’s CEO, John Krafcik, has admitted that a self-driving car that can drive in any condition, on any road, without ever needing a human to take control—usually called a “level five” autonomous vehicle—will basically never exist. At the Wall Street Journa…

Wasn't it just a couple decades ago that we thought computers would never beat humans at Go?

Re: Despite High Hopes, Self-Driving Cars Are ‘Way in the Future’

#330

Post by Florin_Andrei » Wed, Jul 17, 2019, 8:29 PM UTC

casefields wrote: post #2

Nothing makes a huge group of us cringe more, than people saying it's just around the corner. The worst part is it also comes from people who should know better. >Waymo’s CEO, John Krafcik, has admitted that a self-driving car that can drive in any condition, on any road, without ever needing a human to take control—usually called a “level five” autonomous vehicle—will basically never exist. At the Wall Street Journa…

> Waymo’s CEO, John Krafcik, has admitted that a self-driving car that can drive in any condition, on any road, without ever needing a human to take control—usually called a “level five” autonomous vehicle—will basically never exist.

That's equivalent to saying AGI is impossible.

It's a pretty big statement.