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IBM is not doing "cognitive computing" with Watson (2016)

rogerschank.com

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Re: IBM is not doing "cognitive computing" with Watson (2016)

#321

I'm no expert in the field of AI or Machine Learning, so I have a question for the experts here? Has there been any theoretical breakthrough in the AI in the recent years? I knew we had neural networks and different types of classifiers, etc. for more than a few of decades now, so apart from better marketing, has there been a significant breakthrough that explains this sudden surge in the interest in AI?

Some deep net answers below.

However - MCMC for scalable bayesian reasoning. - Answer Sets for reasoning in FOL. - Big data sets for training lots of classifiers. Including deep networks. A big breakthrough has been crowdsourcing the labelling.

Re: IBM is not doing "cognitive computing" with Watson (2016)

#322

The most ingenious trick that the IBM marketing department pulled was to get non-technical (and probably even technical people, judging by this thread) to think that Watson is some kind of singular thing. Like that it’s a single big neural network with different APIs on it, or something. I honestly think that’s what most people think Watson refers to. Watson is like Google Cloud Platform. It’s just a name for a platf…

I remember when Microsoft .NET came out and I hated it because they named it something that had no relation to what it was. The product had nothing to do with the Internet, but the Internet was a big new fad back then and marketing wanted to latch onto that.

Today .NET is a great product ecosystem and a huge success, except for the horribly awkward name.

I don't know if they'll ever regret naming it Watson, but latching onto the AI craze isn't necessarily a losing strategy as long as the products are good and successful. Even if they have nothing to do with AI.

Re: IBM is not doing "cognitive computing" with Watson (2016)

#323
post #167

The most ingenious trick that the IBM marketing department pulled was to get non-technical (and probably even technical people, judging by this thread) to think that Watson is some kind of singular thing. Like that it’s a single big neural network with different APIs on it, or something. I honestly think that’s what most people think Watson refers to. Watson is like Google Cloud Platform. It’s just a name for a platf…

I'm not even convinced Watson is a platform. My impression is that it's just a consulting division of the company that deploys teams to build solutions that are in some way related to AI, with each solution or implementation potentially being completely unique from the ground up. Perhaps someone from IBM can correct me though.

I knew people who had their division pay for Watson as a way to get their business AI and data science needs fulfilled without hiring developers outside their price range.

Eventually they scrapped the project because it not only took a ton of employee time to talk with IBM's team to get it set up and working, it also cost a significant chunk of money and wasn't as good as what the people who already worked at the company thought they could do themselves.

With all due respect to the people that work at IBM, I just can't imagine IBM's sales and consulting cultures to work well with deploying AI. I don't know firsthand, but from what I've heard and what I would guess anyway, a lot of the people selling Watson and actually on the front lines working with it probably aren't that knowledgeable about AI/ML/whatever. I just don't see how you could determine a project's feasibility or effectiveness without having a sharp conceptual knowledge of the actual AI algorithms and what potentially what kind of data is needed to make them shine.

Suppose a university admissions department offers paper surveys to prospective students at the end of on-campus tours. In an effort to improve admitted student yield (the percentage of students that actually attend the university after being accepted), the university wants to be able to scan these surveys' text digitally and then perform sentiment analysis to determine how excited the student is about attending the university, or more directly, how likely the student is to matriculate. The university doesn't have any people capable of doing this, so they get into contact with Watson.

How much will the salespeople at Watson pry into the questions of the survey, demographics and culture of the school, or the sample size? Will they ask about statistics such as acceptance rate, yield, and which students are most likely to matriculate (based on quantifiable metrics)? Even the type or color of paper and text field sizes on the surveys on could affect the feasibility of the project regarding OCR, or bias the responses toward short answers. I would argue that a lot of knowledge about the project would be necessary before a sales quote or even the feasibility of the project itself could be considered, but would a salesperson know to ask these question? Would they even be incentivized to ask? Would the consultants know that certain questions could make OCR hard or sentiment analysis a wash? Would a statistician be consulted to see if the same or better results could be obtained from simple analysis of GPA, ZIP, and test scores?

I'm sure everybody at Watson is pretty technically competent - and to be sure, I'm sure for most consulting and sales that IBM does, I wouldn't have to make the following qualification. But to be brutally honest, I think the type of people who are familiar enough with AI to be the person you want working at Watson in consulting and sales probably are using those skills as developers and data scientists. And even then, again with all due respect to IBM employees (and I know IBM puts out a lot of great research), those people might not also be at IBM either.

Re: IBM is not doing "cognitive computing" with Watson (2016)

#324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unfortunately many, many people think that talking to your computer in actually already possible, they just haven't experienced it yet. Given how often another person can't correctly infer meaning when people talk, I doubt it will ever be how people imagine it. Initially, I imagine it will be a lot of people trying to talk normally and a lot of AI responses asking how your poorly worded worded request should be car…

In a previous job I looked into the viability of pen computing, specifically which companies had succeeded commercially with a pen-based interface. A lot of folks are too young to know this, but there was a time when it was accepted wisdom that much of personal computing would eventually converge to a pen-based interface, with the primary enabling technology being handwriting recognition. What I found is that compute…

I've always thought it'd be nice to be able to code at the speed of thought - you can often envisage the code or classes that'll make up part of a solution, it's just so slow filtering that through your fingers and the keyboard; if the neural interface 'thing' could be solved that'd be a winner I think, both for coding and manipulating the 'UI'.

It seems within the bounds of possibility to me (from having no experience in the field ;), if patterns could be predictably matched in real-time or better time than it takes to whack the keyboard or move the mouse (can EEG or FMRI make predictable sort of patterns like that?).

Re: IBM is not doing "cognitive computing" with Watson (2016)

#325

I used to work for IBM, but a few years ago. One thing about Watson that I remember is this presentation by a very senior guy. He had just come back from the US and was presenting what he learned there about Watson Healthcare (IIRC, that's what it was called), which I assumed was a division of the Watson team that was focused on cancer and stuff like that. I'm paraphrasing, but during the presentation he said somethi…

his customers are CIO's they need help in selling things to the board, I guess that's what he's talking about.

Re: IBM is not doing "cognitive computing" with Watson (2016)

#326
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Any human who speaks two languages fluently (which is not rare, looking at the world as a whole) can translate between them well. No, sadly, that's not the case. A bilingual person may create a passable translation, in that they can keep the main gist and that all the important words in the original text will appear in the translated text in some form, but that does not automatically make it a "well-translated" tex…

Right, but I don't think many people expect machine translation to do better than that. And I don't think the ability to do good translations is quite as rare among bilinguals as you're making out. Even kids tend to be pretty good at it according to some research: https://web.stanford.edu/~hakuta/www/research/publications/(... > They are frequently contorted, using syntaxes that hardly appear in any natural sentences…

Consider yourself lucky, then. You are speaking English, with its thousands (if not millions) of competent translators translating everything remotely interesting from other languages. The bar for "good translation" is kept reasonably high for English.

As a Korean speaker, if I walk into a bookstore and pick up any book translated from English, and read a page or two, chances are that I will find at least one sentence where I can see what the original English expression must have been, because the translator chose a wrong Korean word which sticks out like a sore thumb. Like, using a word for "(economic/technological) development" to describe "advanced cancer". Or translating "it may seem excessive [to the reader] ..." into "we can consider it as excessive ..."

And yes, these translators don't think twice about making sentences that no native speaker would be caught speaking. Some even defends the practice by saying they are faithful to the European syntax of the original text! Gah.

Re: IBM is not doing "cognitive computing" with Watson (2016)

#327
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but I don't think many people expect machine translation to do better than that. And I don't think the ability to do good translations is quite as rare among bilinguals as you're making out. Even kids tend to be pretty good at it according to some research: https://web.stanford.edu/~hakuta/www/research/publications/(... > They are frequently contorted, using syntaxes that hardly appear in any natural sentences…

Consider yourself lucky, then. You are speaking English, with its thousands (if not millions) of competent translators translating everything remotely interesting from other languages. The bar for "good translation" is kept reasonably high for English. As a Korean speaker, if I walk into a bookstore and pick up any book translated from English, and read a page or two, chances are that I will find at least one sentenc…

> Like, using a word for "(economic/technological) development" to describe "advanced cancer"

That sounds like a mistake caused by the translator having a (relatively) poor knowledge of English. A bilingual English/Korean speaker wouldn't make that mistake. I mean, I don't know your linguistic background, but you clearly know enough English and Korean to know that that's a bad translation, and you presumably wouldn't have made the same mistake if you'd been translating the book.

>Some even defends the practice by saying they are faithful to the European syntax of the original text!

I think there's always a tension between making the translation faithful to the original text and making it idiomatic. That's partly a matter of taste, especially in literature.

Re: IBM is not doing "cognitive computing" with Watson (2016)

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All Model 3's DO have the HARDWARE to support full-self driving, even if the software is not there. Please provide evidence. Given that the only full-self driving system out there is Waymo's, which uses completely different hardware than Tesla's, it is impossible to back your claim, unless you develop a fully-self-driving system on top of Tesla's hardware. So until that is done, your claim is false, no matter how m…

Sure, they have cameras to see and a computer to do rigorous processing. We can compare this to a human, who uses their vision to perceive the outside world while driving. (You could also argue humans use their hearing, well the Tesla's have mic's if they really wanted to use that).

> they have cameras to see and a computer to do rigorous processing. We can compare this to a human, who uses their vision to perceive the outside world while driving

My phone also has cameras and a processor. Are you implying that my phone is as equipped to drive a car as a human?

A monkey has eyes, a brain, arms and legs. Are you implying that a monkey is as equipped to drive a car as a human?

Re: IBM is not doing "cognitive computing" with Watson (2016)

#329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can also kinda talk to ELIZA. Google Assistant, Apple Siri and Amazon Echo are all quite fancy natural language parsers . After parsing, it's just a group of "dumb" (wo)man-made widgets.

There not entirely true. Google Search will answer a question with an automatically extracted excerpt from a website page. Watson did the similar with its Jeopardy system

Only in some cases, supposedly as a fallback.

Re: IBM is not doing "cognitive computing" with Watson (2016)

#330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans also have human brains, which are much more important to driving than eyes.

This is the part that can be emulated in software. All you have to prove is that what ever platform/language you're using for the programming is Turing Complete, which is the case for almost all of the most popular languages.

So can I run Crysis on my TI calculator? I'm sure whatever platform/language is running on it is Turing Complete. I think you missed the point that the brain is also hardware.
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