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Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

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Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#321

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https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin This is the reason why the price is exploding.

I think this one is a bit more telling: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=NG&q=b... (it's for Nigeria) And the global map for since 2004: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin With the search term being most popular in Nigeria.

Actually Google AdWords says that you have an average of 40k searches per month for "bitcoin" in Nigeria and more than 1 mio. searches/month in the US.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#322

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This is (as someone who hasn't played around with bitcoin much) something I've been curious about. How easy is it to get significant amounts of bitcoin turned into cash? This is particularly applicable at a moment like the present. If I had, say, 25 bitcoins that I wanted to trade into dollars _right now_ what hurdles stand in my way, and how long would it take to clear them?

There are liquidation limits on the exchanges. I think Coinbase limits to $10k USD in exchange for your Bitcoins. You can get increases by providing additional identity verification. IRS is way up in Coinbase’s business since this is essentially a huge potential avenue for laundering and tax evasion.

So it might be that bitcoin is rising and rising ever more not just because owners are bullish on future development but also because some of those who are not are disallowed from selling? Best store of value ever, backed by inability to sell.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#323

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> Unfortunately GDAX (and Coinbase), Gemini, and other exchanges all went down at the same time > Conveniently GDAX (and Coinbase), Gemini, and other exchanges all went down at the same time

Not sure why you are being downvoted - very precisely (and probably accurately) conveyed what was happening. What are the chances of all these exchanges having trouble at the same time? I'd really like to see postmortem on this.

Because it is an emotional topic.

There are various, arguably valid, orthogonal aspects that motivated the technology behind distributed ledgers. And when those utopian dreams are subjected to the cold hard facts (of this world) it elicits a non-rational response. That is the positive view of this group-mind phenomena. The negative view would posit that voices that point out that "the emperor has no clothes" can derail what very much appears to be a pyramid scheme.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#324

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You don't get it. I understand how consensus works in Bitcoin. I argue that it doesn't provide any advantage over other systems in anything and has overwhelming downsides in all of its current applications. Notably, you have failed to mention any counterexample. Also, the Byzantine Generals Problem was solved multiple times in the paper that introduced it. You were somebody's greater fool. You believe that there will…

> You don't get it. No you don't, which is why you're still talking about it the way you are. > you have failed to mention any counterexample. What we have now. Inflation debasing your money. This is actually a game theory problem. There are three groups in bitcoin. The users, the holders, and the miners. To understand the way that relationship works, you have to understand what keeps everyone separated and honest. T…

What you’ve done here is offer a detailed technical explanation and then thrown in something about deflating a debt bubble, without actually connecting them.

I’m all for the technology, but the technology itself doesn’t solve any systemic financial issues, not directly. It’s the adoption itself, and how it may be used for legit commerce, say 5-10 years down the road, that would potentially do so. And this would be facilitated by technology evolution from now until then. Bitcoin may be at the center of that evolution, but it’s not assured just yet.

People are buying or holding on speculation for various reasons but most with a common speculation: They believe that the price will continue to rise relative to their cost basis. That’s it. Some of these folks have a fundamental belief about bitcoin’s future as a currency, but that future isn’t enabled directly by the technical details that you’ve offered. Most newcomers don’t care about the revolution, they’re just trying to hop aboard a rocket ship.

You have a solid understanding of bitcoin’s technical details. Just pointing out that such details don’t directly solve any economic / debt related issues, for many reasons. One of its key limitations is that the technology of bitcoin cannot facilitate commerce at scale, not currently.

Price of bitcoin will go up or down directly as a result of decisions of buyers and sellers, nothing less or more. Greater fools applies to bitcoin just the same as other open markets.

Fixed assets, goods and services, etc., are stable relative to fiat, at least USD. So bitcon isn’t deflating any bubbles.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#325
post #247

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Right. You would had to have bought and held until today for my claim to be true (and it is only true at the time I write this). But it's still the case that you could have bought in any peak or trough in the periods you're referring to and still have significant realized/unrealized gains right now .

Sure it’s true, but it’s a tautology to say it when something is at an all-time high.

What's your point? I basically say that in my posts.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#326
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. You would had to have bought and held until today for my claim to be true (and it is only true at the time I write this). But it's still the case that you could have bought in any peak or trough in the periods you're referring to and still have significant realized/unrealized gains right now .

The difficult part is holding through the bear period. I'm pretty sure not so many investors can do that.

Correct. The most difficult part of trading/investing/betting (call it what you want) is often confronting your own tolerance for risk and uncertainty.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#327

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Ask yourself first, why did the value climb 16x? If you cant answer that then I caution purchasing more. I would also spend some time understanding what "investing" is vs what speculating\gambling is. This is gambling.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin This is the reason why the price is exploding.

That only indicates demand for botcoin, not the reason for demand. Though emerging markets adopting it might explain the growth. It doesn't help assess bitcoin's value except to indicate it might have additional stability as a currency in some small nations.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#328
post #229

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> Lots of problems to be solved back then, but Bitcoin is just the same now. Nothing was solved. No progress Oh, it's way worse than that. Now, a small country's worth of electricity is consumed every day to no end at all, except "mining" Bitcoins.

That's the puzzling part. A lot of work has gone into Stake / Mixed proof chains that don't depend on consuming horrendous amounts of energy. There isn't a good reason to expect money not to shift to more efficient ledgers when things settle down.

Proof of work has one big advantage over proof of stake - it makes bitcoin backed by value of infrastructure and energy dedicated to mining it.

In contrast with proof of stake there is quite literally nothing at stake.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#329
post #229
post #35

Man, this is just weird. I just bought 0.05 Bitcoins (you know FOMO and all that) and it just feels so much more empty than back in the days when I mined them myself with my brand new dual Xeon CPU and later on was thinking grand thoughts and building little projects with epaper ink displays to display QR codes on small devices that would work on low bandwidth connections and maybe offline. Lots of problems to be sol…

> Lots of problems to be solved back then, but Bitcoin is just the same now. Nothing was solved. No progress Oh, it's way worse than that. Now, a small country's worth of electricity is consumed every day to no end at all, except "mining" Bitcoins.

How is that “worse” though? This is free market at work. Energy being spent securing the bitcoin network will always correlate with value of bitcoin.

The end is existence of bitcoin as solution to fairly important problem of decentralized and censorship-resistant consensus mechanism over open ledger that everybody can transfer value within (and soon with convenient atomic swaps - across multiple chains). And that is just the lowest layer of operation.

Anybody claiming bitcoin mining is wasting energy assumes the solution to said problem is worthless or the problem doesn’t exist. Both of which I (and the market) disagree with.

As for whether there could be more “efficient” way to line bitcoins - this is irrelevant, because for every jump in efficiency there will be similar jump in mining difficulty by design.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this one is a bit more telling: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=NG&q=b... (it's for Nigeria) And the global map for since 2004: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin With the search term being most popular in Nigeria.

Actually Google AdWords says that you have an average of 40k searches per month for "bitcoin" in Nigeria and more than 1 mio. searches/month in the US.

Right but the map seems to present the data in a way that implies those searches for bitcoin in Nigeria are more popular than other searches for their given country.
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