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Solar Roof

tesla.com

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Re: Solar Roof

#321

Post by Retra »

carleverett wrote: post #286
stratigos wrote: post #217

People are thinking way too much about how much this saves them at a personal level. I think people should instead be thinking about how we can save the existence of the entire species, and all other higher order forms of life on earth, rather than focusing on their individual tax breaks, savings, or other trivial concerns. Yes, your cash flow is rendered quite trivial if life on Earth ends. Invest in the Life Econom…

I agree with the sentiment, but I have to correct your idea that global warming is a species-ending problem. The worst-case scenario of global warming (which might be inevitable given the current CO2 levels) is a 216 foot rise in sea level [1]. This will cause mass migration and be extremely expensive and unpleasant for society as a whole, but poses little threat of ending humanity. NASA's JPL did a great lecture a f…

Global warming is causing the destruction of whole ecosystems, any of which might lead to a chain-reaction that undoes biological infrastructure that entire species rely upon, including humans. Many species have already been ended, so I'm not sure why you believe it's not a species-ending problem. Mass migration also means the movement of predators into territories with unadapted prey, which can also result in extinction. (The Dodo went extinct due to habitat destruction and the introduction of predatory mammals, for example.) Almost every extinction in the history of Earth has been a result of global climate changes.

I don't understand why you're being so myopic? The worst case isn't a few people having to buy new homes, it's mass extinction and war. Which may as well be total nuclear war, as far as you or I can predict.

Re: Solar Roof

#322

Post by wtf_is_up »

martalist wrote: post #310
crush-n-spread wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason a high-priced car was the first offering is because that's the only way to bring the new technology to a reasonable price

I didn't mention price. It could have been a high-priced, low performance, average-looking, electric, family sedan, and it would have been more effective at transporting people (more seats in a sedan) plus better for the environment. The point is that the appearance and performance sold for personal and emotional reasons.

That only works if enough people want expensive, low performance, average-looking, electric family sedans.

Re: Solar Roof

#323

Post by Nelson69 »

atourgates wrote: post #31
blakesterz wrote: post #2

Yikes. I just signed a contract for a new roof here last month, it's going to cost about $12k. Just did the estimate for the Tesla Solar roof... $80,300, so $87k if I want the battery too. I can barely afford the $12 right now, the $80 is just so far over it's not even close, even with how much I save over the years in electricity. That being said, I love these things, so hoping it gets cheaper in the coming years.

I don't really see the selling point, or value here. Tesla's calculator estimates $40,500 for a roof that generates half our power needs, and should provide $20,400 worth of energy over 30-years. Add in a PowerWall and federal tax credit, and I'm still losing $15,400 over 30-years. If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. To…

Isn't the selling point aesthetics? It's very clearly not for everybody, not yet, anyways.

In Colorado it's against the laws for HOAs to ban solar systems, there are some tricks though because they can require certain roofs that you can't really put solar on. Certain tiles and 'presidential' grade roofing which typically cost more than normal shingles as it is. If you live in one of those types of places and want an energy system, then this is what you want. Honestly, I've not heard a lot of complaints about the aesthetics of a conventional solar system, in fact I think some people like it because it's really obvious looking; but if you have the funds and really value the look, then there is an option for you.

It's probably not that different from the market for a Model S vs a Honda Accord. The S is 3+x the cost of the Accord, has fewer fueling stations, can't be serviced nearly as easily, probably is less 'practical' in a handful of other ways but there are still people that buy and drive Model S Tesla cars.

Re: Solar Roof

#324

Post by fernly »

fernly wrote: post #315

For a counterweight let me present this interview[0] with the CEO of "the largest privately held solar contracting company in America", near the end of which he says several disparaging things about Tesla's roof, including, > When I saw the demo he did at Universal Studios... What I saw was a piece of glass that looked like it had a cell in it. The challenges he’s going to have is, how are you going to wire it? Every…

OK I just put my address into the calculator and I think the thing's bogus. Without asking anything about my house size or my solar exposure, based solely on my address, it gives me a hard figure ($53,100) for the roof cost and a 30-year energy income of $76,100.

I call bullshit. First, I do not believe they actually know the size of my house or the orientation of the (numerous) roof pitches to the sun. Spoiler: it's only 1300 sq feet and the longest roof ridge is oriented NW-SE, far from optimal for exposure.

Then there are the three very large oak trees that shadow it from three sides.

Then there is the fact that my utility is a local one, not PG&E, and I doubt they took the different rate structure into account. And if they did, how the F do they know what Palo Alto utilities will charging in 10, 20 or 30 years?

They don't know. The whole calculator is a bogus fantasy toy.

Re: Solar Roof

#325

Post by knieveltech »

carleverett wrote: post #286
stratigos wrote: post #217

People are thinking way too much about how much this saves them at a personal level. I think people should instead be thinking about how we can save the existence of the entire species, and all other higher order forms of life on earth, rather than focusing on their individual tax breaks, savings, or other trivial concerns. Yes, your cash flow is rendered quite trivial if life on Earth ends. Invest in the Life Econom…

I agree with the sentiment, but I have to correct your idea that global warming is a species-ending problem. The worst-case scenario of global warming (which might be inevitable given the current CO2 levels) is a 216 foot rise in sea level [1]. This will cause mass migration and be extremely expensive and unpleasant for society as a whole, but poses little threat of ending humanity. NASA's JPL did a great lecture a f…

Um...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

Re: Solar Roof

#326

Post by knieveltech »

wyager wrote: post #232
stratigos wrote: post #217

People are thinking way too much about how much this saves them at a personal level. I think people should instead be thinking about how we can save the existence of the entire species, and all other higher order forms of life on earth, rather than focusing on their individual tax breaks, savings, or other trivial concerns. Yes, your cash flow is rendered quite trivial if life on Earth ends. Invest in the Life Econom…

This is naïve, useless advice. First off, we are not at existential risk from climate change. Most reasonable estimates suggest on the order of single-digit percent productivity losses for society over the next several decades. Substantial and unfortunate, but not existence-threatening, and in fact not even enough to outweigh reasonably expectable productivity gains from technological development. There are much more…

Um...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

Re: Solar Roof

#327

Post by sliken »

carleverett wrote: post #286
stratigos wrote: post #217

People are thinking way too much about how much this saves them at a personal level. I think people should instead be thinking about how we can save the existence of the entire species, and all other higher order forms of life on earth, rather than focusing on their individual tax breaks, savings, or other trivial concerns. Yes, your cash flow is rendered quite trivial if life on Earth ends. Invest in the Life Econom…

I agree with the sentiment, but I have to correct your idea that global warming is a species-ending problem. The worst-case scenario of global warming (which might be inevitable given the current CO2 levels) is a 216 foot rise in sea level [1]. This will cause mass migration and be extremely expensive and unpleasant for society as a whole, but poses little threat of ending humanity. NASA's JPL did a great lecture a f…

You are looking at a very small fraction of the problem. Yes higher water is not an extinction level event.

But with increased CO2 there's also increasing acidification. So the plankton dies, coral dies, mollusks die (their shells erode). The food web at sea dies.... as does the food for a decent fraction of the planet. Acid rain causes more damage, food production becomes tougher... especially on the decreasing number of acres above flood level. Much of the most productive farm land in the world would be inundated with acidic salty water.

Re: Solar Roof

#328

Post by Meegul »

fernly wrote: post #324
fernly wrote: post #315

For a counterweight let me present this interview[0] with the CEO of "the largest privately held solar contracting company in America", near the end of which he says several disparaging things about Tesla's roof, including, > When I saw the demo he did at Universal Studios... What I saw was a piece of glass that looked like it had a cell in it. The challenges he’s going to have is, how are you going to wire it? Every…

OK I just put my address into the calculator and I think the thing's bogus. Without asking anything about my house size or my solar exposure, based solely on my address, it gives me a hard figure ($53,100) for the roof cost and a 30-year energy income of $76,100. I call bullshit. First, I do not believe they actually know the size of my house or the orientation of the (numerous) roof pitches to the sun. Spoiler: it's…

That's actually exactly the data they're getting from Google's project Sunroof. I'm not sure how correct that data is, but I haven't seen many complaints.

Re: Solar Roof

#329

Post by [deleted] »

carleverett wrote: post #286
stratigos wrote: post #217

People are thinking way too much about how much this saves them at a personal level. I think people should instead be thinking about how we can save the existence of the entire species, and all other higher order forms of life on earth, rather than focusing on their individual tax breaks, savings, or other trivial concerns. Yes, your cash flow is rendered quite trivial if life on Earth ends. Invest in the Life Econom…

I agree with the sentiment, but I have to correct your idea that global warming is a species-ending problem. The worst-case scenario of global warming (which might be inevitable given the current CO2 levels) is a 216 foot rise in sea level [1]. This will cause mass migration and be extremely expensive and unpleasant for society as a whole, but poses little threat of ending humanity. NASA's JPL did a great lecture a f…

[deleted]

Re: Solar Roof

#330

Post by sliken »

atourgates wrote: post #31
blakesterz wrote: post #2

Yikes. I just signed a contract for a new roof here last month, it's going to cost about $12k. Just did the estimate for the Tesla Solar roof... $80,300, so $87k if I want the battery too. I can barely afford the $12 right now, the $80 is just so far over it's not even close, even with how much I save over the years in electricity. That being said, I love these things, so hoping it gets cheaper in the coming years.

I don't really see the selling point, or value here. Tesla's calculator estimates $40,500 for a roof that generates half our power needs, and should provide $20,400 worth of energy over 30-years. Add in a PowerWall and federal tax credit, and I'm still losing $15,400 over 30-years. If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. To…

Don't forget the tesla $40,500 includes a roof AND solar. To for a fair comparison you have to include the cost of roof and solar for the next year. Your mentioned other system for $20k that handles 100% of your need doesn't include the roof.
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