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A universal income is not such a silly idea

timharford.com

311–320 of 337 posts

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#311
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A rule setting a maximum of one or two months/year paid abroad would suffice.

Right. But then you've got a very large incentive against the kind of travel that young people routinely do. Most of my family and friends have taken 3-4 month trips abroad, very formative. I expect many of them would have stayed home if they lost the income.

If they want to travel more, they can work to get the extra income required to do so above/beyond the basic income.

Which would act as an incentive for them to work.

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#312

One point of confusion for me, that I hope someone with a sounder economics background than myself can address, is: Would the national unconditional basic income render the national minimum wage effectively 0 (or much lower than it currently is)? For example, corporations could be taxed more heavily if they could offer their lowest paid positions a wage of £2 per hour. This extra taxation would then help fund a natio…

An interesting idea is that it might enable companies to compete much more through a pleasant working environment rather than wages.

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if goods are produced by automation and where we cannot automate we have people that want to work. What kind of task would you give to all the other people? Edit: I am alluding to the fact that we are way past full employment .

I don't think we have past full employment. We are not even close to it, at all. I'll give you several entirely random but real examples. The street here needs new paving. There is no public transport in our town and no taxi after 6PM (need drivers and support staff). I need someone to fix my roof, and it's hard to find good one. There is a need of better trains, better cars, better software, better technologies, mor…

And yet we have tens of thousands of people bloating up government at all levels with what are essentially "make-work" jobs. Likewise for universities and colleges which are bloated with administrators and other non-essential staff. Our economy is absolutely filled with redundancy for the simple reason that people need to work in order to pay the bills.

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#314
post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone of consequence understands it has to be paid for, and thus it's not a net income win for everyone. So you're refuting an obtuse interpretation of "everyone gets it" that only the very naive might believe. The point of "everyone gets it" is to simplify administration, soften the stigma, and eliminate the sort of marginal-disincentive cliffs that patchwork 'progressive' benefits often create.

"soften the stigma" is the problem here. It's false, dishonest advertisement which means to produce a psychological effect when the practical effect is different. That's why it is called fraud: you say one thing, but sell another, and you know it in advance.

A basic income may or may not be a good policy, but people like Milton Friedman and Charles Murray weren't trying to perpetrate a dishonest fraud (or convince people it's a "free lunch") when they outlined its potential benefits over alternate existing patchwork systems of redistribution.

"Everyone gets it" means to avoid the complexity, corruption, and gaming that comes with an eligibility-testing bureaucracy. "Softens the stigma" means the marginal incentives, especially for the working poor and near poor, aren't muddied by taboos around other welfare programs. (And "softens the stigma" is a honest way to describe that part of the rationale, as well... because some listeners will consider the stigma a good thing, while others see it as a barrier to the policy's intended effects. Universal eligibility does, in actual fact, alter the stigma associated with receiving government income – and people can still argue about whether that's a good thing or not, without allegations of bad-faith fraud.)

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#315
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with making it unconditional is that it will completely break the ceteris paribus calculations as to what is good enough, making a lot of collateral damage on its way while being largely ineffective. Showering money to everybody is very likely to make more harm than good to real people's economies. A transition to Friedman's proposal on a "moderate" negative income tax (it's not what the name suggests) ma…

The Swiss suggestion aside, it's not really meant to be a free middle-class experience. In the minds of most people it's more of a "you will not go hungry or get cold in the winter" level of support, and I would make the argument that the majority of folks would continue to work to supplement their income beyond the bare necessities. It depends on your base axioms here. Most people don't like living with the bare min…

> In the minds of most people it's more of a "you will not go hungry or get cold in the winter" level of support, and I would make the argument that the majority of folks would continue to work to supplement their income beyond the bare necessities.

And that's the essential fallacy: You cannot control the prices of goods and services in the market.

Once you provide a basic income to everybody, that will create a scenario wherein the majority of people benefit from the income inversely proportionally to their level of other income. This is the intended effect: The poor benefit the most and the upper-class are largely unaffected. So it's a good idea, right? Not exactly: What are the poor going to spend their income on? Primarily food, housing -- the "not going hungry or cold" things. So they've got more money to go out and buy food and they will. And the lower-middle-class who make a bit more than that will now have enough money to buy more food and better housing and they will. And the middle-middle class have a little extra money to spend as they wish and they will. And so on. But the majority of that money will be spent. With more free cash to go around, prices will rise to capture the additional profits. When prices go up we have inflation and now the poor are back to not being able to afford food and shelter and the lower-middle-class are back to living hand-to-mouth and so forth. The market compensates for the additional influx of cash by providing opportunities to soak it up, so it doesn't wind up helping anyone in the long run.

Well we'll just peg it to the rate of inflation and the problem will be solved, right? Again -- it's not that simple.

See, only one in three Americans is working. If we determine that each American needs about $500 per month to "not go hungry or cold" then that means the average American will have to pay $1,500 in additional taxes. We'll burden the upper class with the majority of those taxes, of course, but this isn't good for the middle class either. The upper-middle-class winds up being saddled with enough additional tax burden that they join the middle-middle class. And the middle-middle class who were previously getting along fine on a household income of $50,000 just joined the lower-middle class because even with the added income they have to pay more for the basics: food and shelter because of the additional inflation.

So now we're saddled with a shrinking middle class, (sound familiar?) nobody being able to afford any more than they were before and the rich continue to remain largely unaffected by all of this. In the end it accomplishes the exact opposite of what you set out to do.

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#316
post #20
post #6

In a country with it's own currency, wouldn't this just raise prices until finally the effect would be being back to step 1 but with huge inflation. I.e. I'm selling bread for $3. Now I get $1500 free money every month and I know you do too. I'm selling bread for $6 because I know everyone has extra money lying around and since I have extra money I don't really care if people buy less from me.

There's this side concept called competition. If you sell your bread for $6 because you think the market can afford it, but the vendor next door continues to sell for $3 you go broke. I didn't always see eye to eye with Milton Friedman, but I think we can give him credit that he'd thought through the obvious problems with this approach before he proposed it.

Except that your costs go up as well. There will be an added tax burden, for one. Since only one in three Americans works, you'll have to pay for a lot of taxes. Then you've got to buy the flour. Your next door neighbor didn't just walk in one day and raise his prices to $6.00. The costs of the flour rose. The eggs. The yeast. The labor that creates the bread increased in cost as well, since nobody wants to work for minimum wage when there's all this free income now and the increased cost of labor shuts out newcomers, thereby reducing competition. Eventually, you have to raise prices not out of greed but because if you don't you'll be losing money and then you'll need to rely on your basic income and so will all the people you used to employ.

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#317
post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Giving it to everyone, period, is not mathematically tenable. A thousand dollars per month to every adult US citizen would represent over 2 trillion dollars in additional spending per year. At the very least you have to change the tax structure to claw it back from people as they earn more money.

It would not be simply additional spending, as it would replace many existing (much more beaurocratically complex) social security programs. And yes, the tax structure would have to change as well.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6809766

It would be a massive net increase in spending and it's not even remotely tenable without changing the tax structure specifically to claw the basic income itself back from most of the recipients.

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#318
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your reasoning is severely flawed. Nobody today wants to accept an income below what you need to survive because..you need to survive. Liberals don't want to see other people accepting an income below what is needed for them to survive in a way that we can accept, so pass rules about a minimum wage. With this proposal, there is wage that it too low. As long as you make enough to afford something nice that you want th…

>The classic example being a single mom who, while working, and paying child care, makes less than on welfare. It can be worse that this. At least in some states, every dollar you earn is deducted (at least in part) from your welfare checks. This was at least the case a while ago; I couldn't vouch for its truth today after welfare has been "reformed" several times. It was definitely true at one time, though. When thi…

But how you cheat on universal income is to declare having more children than you actually have. Or just actually having them, treating them badly.

Or at least, every now and then, there's an article in various European news articles that someone pulled that crap. (Most Euro countries will give a monthly stipend of ~100 euro per child you have, no questions asked (in Belgium you have to work to get it, I believe, but no other qualifications. A bank director gets it, and so does the cleaning lady))

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#319
post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The classic example being a single mom who, while working, and paying child care, makes less than on welfare. It can be worse that this. At least in some states, every dollar you earn is deducted (at least in part) from your welfare checks. This was at least the case a while ago; I couldn't vouch for its truth today after welfare has been "reformed" several times. It was definitely true at one time, though. When thi…

But how you cheat on universal income is to declare having more children than you actually have. Or just actually having them, treating them badly. Or at least, every now and then, there's an article in various European news articles that someone pulled that crap. (Most Euro countries will give a monthly stipend of ~100 euro per child you have, no questions asked (in Belgium you have to work to get it, I believe, but…

>But how you cheat on universal income is to declare having more children than you actually have. Or just actually having them, treating them badly.

Welfare also scales payments based on the number of kids you have. This is a common (and almost certainly apocryphal) accusation against people currently on welfare; if it's ever true, it's an exception and not the rule. (which is why it would be news)

What is true is that the vast majority of people want to feel useful -- and (at least when the women in question are even moderately educated) they don't want to have extra children just to have a higher stipend.

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