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S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

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Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#311

Post by therobots927 »

chasd00 wrote: post #266
therobots927 wrote: post #23

This is surprising to me. Judging by what appears to be the common sentiment here on HN - which is that AI inference is already profitable, and OpenAI is fairly valued by private markets. Given that Oracle and Microsoft are major counterparties of OpenAI, it seems odd that their stocks have been performing so poorly recently. Can anyone square this circle for me?

it is isn't enough for inference to be profitable, the whole organization has to be profitable enough to keep investors from looking elsewhere for a return.

I agree but I don’t want to concede that point. There’s no evidence that inference is profitable which makes the rest of the conversation a non-starter.

When dealing with sophists you have to pin them down on specific points and prevent them from shifting the conversation.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#312

Post by cozzyd »

axus wrote: post #278
Maxatar wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Gemini really that unpopular?

They get all of the ad revenue, but really don't sell as many money-losing monthly subscriptions as the other guys.

But Gemini is bundled with various plans, like the ones that give you more storage for photos.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#313

Post by UltraSane »

dmix wrote: post #175
UltraSane wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is crazy. One of the main rules of business is to always make it as easy as possible for customers to give you money.

Enterprise companies typically don’t just add credit card forms, they push you through a sales process and don’t care much for small accounts.

For automated cloud computing services they do.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#314

Post by UltraSane »

quickthrowman wrote: post #306
UltraSane wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is crazy. One of the main rules of business is to always make it as easy as possible for customers to give you money.

Not if the goal is to get you into a sales funnel with a sales exec to juice the contract value. Oracle doesn’t give a single shit about someone spending $500/month

Oracle cares if 10 million people are spending $500 a month

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#315

Post by sitzkrieg »

pid-1 wrote: post #171
someuser54541 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

Hold short term debt (e.g money market funds or SOFR ETFs). Then you will have cash in hand if either stocks fall or yelds raise. Never buy derivatives as a non institutional investor.

i mostly agree with this (look at the survivor rate of retail traders of any instrument lol)

but it is possible to do safely. i’m a few decades in now

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#316

Post by sitzkrieg »

pid-1 wrote: post #233
marojejian wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should a retail investor never buy derivatives? spreads?

Retail investors do not have access to systems that calculate risk, margins, pnl, etc... and generally also don't have the necessary knowledge and market data to price such instruments correctly. Most ppl are better off KISSing and lowering risk by selling equity for fixed income.

this hasn’t been true for years. retail investors can’t get advanced risk suites from any normie broker these days

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#317

Post by surgical_fire »

therobots927 wrote: post #310
marcosdumay wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That. I'm personally on the team that think it's honest. But then they have to explain why their marketing numbers are so weird.

I don’t know how $5B+ in marketing for OpenAI is actually possible. To put it in perspective, that’s about the combined campaign budget of the Trump and Harris campaigns. I would expect to be seeing a lot more openAI ads than I’m seeing right now. And they would be everywhere .

My charitable guess is that they lump the compute expense for free users as "Marketing".

My less than charitable guess is that the leaked financials is a piece of fiction intended to make inference not look unprofitable.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#318

Post by ericmay »

ceejayoz wrote: post #301
ericmay wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't make an informed decision on it unless you do your own research and analyze an individual stock. Then it's up to you to decide if it's worth investing in. This is true for any investment. Just because you think something is bullshit doesn't mean it is. Maybe you're just wrong. Buy the security or don't.

> You can't make an informed decision on it unless you do your own research… Most retail investors suffer from significant information asymmetry. We have regulations, in part, to mitigate this fact. > Just because you think something is bullshit doesn't mean it is. A point you yourself might remember when arguing on the internet.

> Most retail investors suffer from significant information asymmetry. We have regulations, in part, to mitigate this fact.

I don't disagree - however that's a separate point from the OP's it's all a scam and pump-and-dump sentiments and doesn't detract from any point I've made.

> A point you yourself might remember when arguing on the internet.

I know it feels great to write things like this but I don't care - my point stands alone and it's only applicable to you and what you wrote regarding valuations.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#319

Post by ericmay »

ceejayoz wrote: post #302
ericmay wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wrote in another post which I think fits nicely here: You are ignoring things like lockup periods, vesting schedules, and other general machinery that specifically exist to prevent day 1 or short-term dumps of shares. It's not in the interest of the company that is IPOing or the bank - how can the investment bank go to investors and market securities and then on Day 1 those securities (because it's a pump and dump…

> You are ignoring things like lockup periods, vesting schedules, and other general machinery that specifically exist to prevent day 1 or short-term dumps of shares. No, I am not. That’s the “it plunges to $50/share before I can offload” period.

You're just making stuff up.

Even in this contrived scenario, a stock plunging to 50% of its IPO price doesn't indicate much. It can still be a good investment. Stocks are punished for non-material things all the time.

Even when these mythical scammers that you've completely made up decide to sell, they need willing market buyers. If those market buyers are sophisticated investors then who cares if they lose money - you know the risks.

If they're retail investors then they shouldn't be buying individual stocks in the first place without conducting proper research which would tell them the stock is a good or bad investment based on their own criteria. As I've already mentioned, the default advice and what is common in the industry is to purchase index funds or target date retirement funds. If you go off and buy some stock at IPO you should have done your research, or you can live and die by the results of your investment. Sometimes you even make money.

I'm just not going to accept you or anyone else just making stuff up like this when I see it, calling things pump-and-dumps, and then walking away as though you have some fait accompli and it's all rigged and all the scammers are just scamming and screwing you. There are guardrails, regulations, rules, and standard advice. If you go buy some high-flying IPO and you lose money that is your fault. Learn to be responsible for yourself and stop projecting your own failure and cynicism on others. Cynicism is the refuge of the most foolish of people.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#320

Post by therobots927 »

surgical_fire wrote: post #317
therobots927 wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know how $5B+ in marketing for OpenAI is actually possible. To put it in perspective, that’s about the combined campaign budget of the Trump and Harris campaigns. I would expect to be seeing a lot more openAI ads than I’m seeing right now. And they would be everywhere .

My charitable guess is that they lump the compute expense for free users as "Marketing". My less than charitable guess is that the leaked financials is a piece of fiction intended to make inference not look unprofitable.

I see what you mean. If they are using it for customer acquisition, it could fall under sales and marketing.

What about retention though? Or upselling to higher tiers?

I would question where they decided to draw the line… because it’s a grey area.

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