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I love LLMs, I hate hype

geohot.github.io

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Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#311

Post by LugosFergus »

jayd16 wrote: post #307
LugosFergus wrote: post #151

Since no one is talking about it: T2 isn’t about machines taking over the world. That has happened (or will happen). But humans eventually defeat the machines. Skynet is trying to prevent that by killing John Connor. That’s what the movie is about. I suppose it’s also about John searching for a parental figure through the T800. He doesn’t get that through is foster parents and his estranged mother. Anyway, I don’t th…

What about all the stuff about destroying the lab and preventing skynet? Is that about father issues too?

I never said father issues. If you want to frame it like that, mother issues would be more accurate.

The story is that Skynet is trying to defend its existence by killing John Connor. In order for John and crew to defend themselves against Skynet in the past, they prevent Skynet from ever existing. Skynet's folly was thinking that it could change the course of history to its benefit.

But this is also John and Sarah's folly. When we get to T3: Judgment Day is delayed, but it _does_ happen. They merely postponed the inevitable.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#312

Post by eueie1 »

bluegatty wrote: post #158
SwellJoe wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But, that's not what you said they'd do. I can switch to a different model with almost zero cost. That's the definition of a commodity.

No, you switched to another SOTA model. You didn't switch to 'Random Corner Store Token Seller' down the street, did you? There 2-3 top players, that is not commodity. Commodity is when there are enough that none of them have market power or can set prices. 'Commodity' means you buy your tokens from the Grocery Store on their loan plan. Like consumer credit is a commodity. FYI predict this is roughly the way it will…

Absolutely and complete false use of commodity.

Has nothing to do with market power. Market power can persist irrespective of the existence of a commodity. Market power only goes away in a perfectly competitive market.

Does such a thing exist? Hahaha. No

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#313

Post by eiie11w »

Aurornis wrote: post #106
theli0nheart wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They may have good margins, but a few things are still true: 1. Much of those profits have to be immediately reinvested into model training runs to avoid being lapped by competitions. 2. Unit costs are irrelevant when the labs don't price per unit, and instead charge, for instance, $200 / month for $10k worth of tokens. This isn't a steady state. Whatever the current situation is, I doubt it's sustainable.

> 2. Unit costs are irrelevant when the labs don't price per unit, and instead charge, for instance, $200 / month for $10k worth of tokens. Cost to generate all of the tokens divided by revenue generated by selling those tokens is what matters. The subscription plans confuse a lot of people because that's what they see. They're not seeing the gigantic API bills from all of the tokens going into enterprise use cases.…

You’re all wrong and effing stupid

Until you bring reinvestment into your analysis stop posing

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#314

Post by HellDunkel »

nylonstrung wrote: post #45
HellDunkel wrote: post #9

How to you love this stuff so hard? I could newer love any ai generated music, book or artwork. Anything ai gemerated i have ever seem or heard was either disgustingly slop or indistinguishable from something else which was real. It‘s a like finding a cool track only to discover it‘s a lazy bootleg.

Yeah but it was only like 2 years ago that artists were arguing this on the basis that AI-gen images would consistently mangle hands Now we're at a point where that never happens, and where lipsync is almost a completely solved problem If the issue here is simply that the quality is bad, one has to contend with the fact that it is undoubtedly exponentially improving and there's no reason we should expect that improve…

I remember watching Jurassic Park when it came out and i loved the CGI (the 5 seconds). Now with Ai we should be excited to see the new dinosaurs looking even more realistic but somehow they don’t- they look like in 1996 just not quite as good…

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#315

Post by 4ffad »

dakolli wrote: post #104
fragmede wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe? I ran across an old pre-LLM project of mine recently, and past me was an asshole and didn't leave a readme for future me. Meanwhile post-LLM projects at least have a readme that the LLM generated for me or my agent to read and pick up context on. Being able to ask an agent what is this repo, what's going on here? Hey just make it do this, instead of toilsomely digging in and doing it tmmyself, seems to say tha…

The fact that you're even saying this it is probably an admission that you do think it's making you dumber. Most people I know, who are honest with themselves, have admitted to me that they feel like it's making them dumber or "zombifying" them. This is also well studied already, https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.08872 LLMs are poison for the brain, I'm almost certain of it, at least when used in the way most people are usi…

This is absolutely spot on.

Ive met many people who say the exact same thing.

The worrying thing is these are people who nominally seem smart - what we are seeing is 'smart' is not what we think/was. Smart is the ability to identify an object which is harmful and a) be disciplined about its use b) become a better person who doesnt need to expose themselves to said object.

I actually I had one fella who was very distressed - pouring out all his stresses to a bot. Then I reminded him the bot is literally designed to tend to his nees - not to his benefit - but to the provider of the good whom will manipulate said user later on. He then immediately deleted his accounts.

Many are not aware of whats going on around them - this is very concerning.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#316

Post by 4ffad »

vilos1611 wrote: post #132
dakolli wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that you're even saying this it is probably an admission that you do think it's making you dumber. Most people I know, who are honest with themselves, have admitted to me that they feel like it's making them dumber or "zombifying" them. This is also well studied already, https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.08872 LLMs are poison for the brain, I'm almost certain of it, at least when used in the way most people are usi…

It's pretty easy to generalize this, but it doesn't match my perception. People who are using llms to do things they could have already done, but faster, probably have atrophying skill sets. People who are using these tools to accomplish significantly more difficult or complex work than they used to are absolutely finding new ways to push themselves. The problems are just much bigger. The average Joe can easily vibe…

"People who are using these tools to accomplish significantly more difficult or complex work than they used to are absolutely finding new ways to push themselves"

hahaha this is a miniscule amount of people.

most people do not care about their job, only to the extent it is a source of income. but they do not care about it anything more than that. and they shouldnt either!

you live in delululand.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#317

Post by 4ffad »

asdff wrote: post #237
InvertedRhodium wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Socrates thought the same of reading and writing, that it would weaken the memory and isolate people from one another. 1966 saw the peak of calculator protests, where math teachers claimed similar things of calculators.

Socrates was right, honestly. I would not be surprised if humans are more evolutionarily optimized for that sort of communication and thinking. Maybe socrates noticed that writers/readers vs orators/listeners were indeed generally dumber in the way we consider people riddled with short form social media induced brainrot to also be missing some mental capacity. Widespread literacy is only a few generations old, arguab…

THe side benefit for certain entities is that, if you are dumber you are easier to control, influence and manipulate.

Now ask yourself.. who does this benefit? Zuckerberg already generates immmense revenues from it.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#318

Post by 4ffad »

jayd16 wrote: post #305
TheAceOfHearts wrote: post #13

At least for me, the jump in productivity has resulted in building stripped down one-off software for my highly specific use-cases. You can use an LLM to create anything but you still need to know what it is that you're building, and you need to think through how everything should work or the LLM will just fill it with sausage. You can tell that the models are still quite jagged and limited by the mixed quality from…

That's not how productivity works. Unless you're selling your one off scripts, that's not where the business sees productivity. Can you make a connection down to the bottom line? Are your one off scripts actually impacting production speeds in a tangible way such that the product is made faster or cheaper? Being able to crank out slicker internal tech debt for shims isn't really what the business owners are after.

its funny how long it took the managers and owners to figure this out.

They really bought into the pipe dream didnt they? hahahah.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#319

Post by 4ffad »

SilverSlash wrote: post #251
byzantinegene wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it makes financial sense at current subscription prices, but this might not hold true when they have to raise prices eventually

Why will they have to raise prices eventually?

cash flows

reinvestment

going-concern

in

perpetuity

valuation

do you know finance? I believe not.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#320

Post by 4ffad »

asdff wrote: post #239
int_19h wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it? To me, the notion that a superintelligence (by which I'm assuming you mean the more sensible "something smarter than us", not "literally a godlike entity") automatically means that sky is going to fall is sillier.

You have to take a step back and look at the sort of world we already live in to understand the sky falling take. We built this monster known as the shareholder model. This is an immoral, cold, unscrupulous beast we unleashed to the world some time ago. This is the model where your boss knows full well you do decent enough work, that you support a family on your income, that getting another job is tough, that is awar…

" Because it is more efficient for the company."

Wrong. It is because the manager's own job relies on making the owners wealthier. if he fails at that, he is fired.

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