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Why jet engines aren't made in China

aakash.substack.com

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Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#311

Post by [deleted] »

Zigurd wrote: post #309
eduction wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because repression is a thing of the past in China? They continue to persecute investors and business executives who get too successful and to repress academic work they find politically objectionable. The communist party continues to exercise control over all intellectual endeavors. And don't think it doesn't matter for jet engines. This article gets into how the open acknowledgment and dissection of engine failure…

Persecuting or favoring investors on a political basis "and to repress academic work they find politically objectionable" has come to America. The only business people intellectually weak enough to not be a threat are real estate developers. Not that the tech industry leaders who are way too comfortable with fascism are making such a good showing either.

[deleted]

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#312

Post by [deleted] »

Zigurd wrote: post #309
eduction wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because repression is a thing of the past in China? They continue to persecute investors and business executives who get too successful and to repress academic work they find politically objectionable. The communist party continues to exercise control over all intellectual endeavors. And don't think it doesn't matter for jet engines. This article gets into how the open acknowledgment and dissection of engine failure…

Persecuting or favoring investors on a political basis "and to repress academic work they find politically objectionable" has come to America. The only business people intellectually weak enough to not be a threat are real estate developers. Not that the tech industry leaders who are way too comfortable with fascism are making such a good showing either.

[deleted]

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#313

Post by eduction »

Zigurd wrote: post #309
eduction wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because repression is a thing of the past in China? They continue to persecute investors and business executives who get too successful and to repress academic work they find politically objectionable. The communist party continues to exercise control over all intellectual endeavors. And don't think it doesn't matter for jet engines. This article gets into how the open acknowledgment and dissection of engine failure…

Persecuting or favoring investors on a political basis "and to repress academic work they find politically objectionable" has come to America. The only business people intellectually weak enough to not be a threat are real estate developers. Not that the tech industry leaders who are way too comfortable with fascism are making such a good showing either.

So you think it’s just as bad as China here? Please state plainly instead of dodging around. Would you just as soon live there, have made your career there? You think you’d be able to publish your books and prosper there? You think we are fascist and so… your life will be miserable now?

I think you’re being absurd. You’ve had a great and largely unfettered career. How has repression hurt you in the slightest? Who repressed you?

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#314

Post by Zigurd »

eduction wrote: post #313
Zigurd wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Persecuting or favoring investors on a political basis "and to repress academic work they find politically objectionable" has come to America. The only business people intellectually weak enough to not be a threat are real estate developers. Not that the tech industry leaders who are way too comfortable with fascism are making such a good showing either.

So you think it’s just as bad as China here? Please state plainly instead of dodging around. Would you just as soon live there, have made your career there? You think you’d be able to publish your books and prosper there? You think we are fascist and so… your life will be miserable now? I think you’re being absurd. You’ve had a great and largely unfettered career. How has repression hurt you in the slightest? Who rep…

Only one of my books has been translated into Chinese, so what do I know?

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#315

Post by fragmede »

vpcs111fm wrote: post #310
fragmede wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay. Advanced chemistry and metallurgy then. What do you want to call it? Jetenginebuildingology?

Quick question. Same issue in Japan. They have talents and capital -- why do you think they are not able to come up with a reliable turbine -- when they can manufacture almost everything else?

Economics. Japan has chosen to specialize in other areas and being a jet turbine engine manufacturer isn't where they've chosen to put resources in. The pay off simply isn't there. They're there in the supply chain, with IHI, MItsubishi, and Kawasaki being in the business of advanced titanium and nickel superalloys being used in wind, steam, and gas turbines for powerplants. It's just that the economics of commercial jet engines themselves isn't something they've chosen to pursue.

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#316

Post by maxglute »

foldr wrote: post #304
owenversteeg wrote: post #275

This, like the linked article by the same author ("America Doesn't Have the Stomach for Growth") raises a few interesting points but doesn't have a strong central thesis. If I could summarize this article, the main thrusts are 1) it's too technically complex, 2) the margins are thin, 3) there are strong regulatory requirements, and 4) opportunity cost vs. AI and chips. Anyone that knows Chinese modern manufacturing k…

The WS-15 is impressive, but it’s on a par with the jet engine technology available to the US military in ~2005. No-one doubts that China can make functioning jet engines. The question is how long the West can maintain the technical lead that it still does have.

WS15 matches western on raw power, i.e. comparable thrust to f119/f135 (f22/f35). PRC cores lacks CMC which was last (2000s) western hot section revolution, but that's more about efficiency ~10-20% better range. We don't know WS15 maintenance/metallurgical gap - no one really knows if their service/overhaul hours, but even if heresay assumption 30-50% lifepsan, that's something PRC industrial output can circumvent, i.e. simply building 2-3x more engines and iterate/improve. CMC fuel efficiency huge, but issue 20% doesn't buy F35s enough range/endurance in westpac theatre size without tanking in many scenarios etc. PRC gets around that by just making J20 chonky boi with massive internal fuel, worked around efficiency from systems perspective.

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#317

Post by queenkjuul »

eduction wrote: post #313
Zigurd wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Persecuting or favoring investors on a political basis "and to repress academic work they find politically objectionable" has come to America. The only business people intellectually weak enough to not be a threat are real estate developers. Not that the tech industry leaders who are way too comfortable with fascism are making such a good showing either.

So you think it’s just as bad as China here? Please state plainly instead of dodging around. Would you just as soon live there, have made your career there? You think you’d be able to publish your books and prosper there? You think we are fascist and so… your life will be miserable now? I think you’re being absurd. You’ve had a great and largely unfettered career. How has repression hurt you in the slightest? Who rep…

> Would you just as soon live there, have made your career there?

Speaking for myself obviously, but: absolutely yes

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#318

Post by AnthonyMouse »

notahacker wrote: post #307
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's no way for one company to design the whole aircraft and then just hand it off to others. This is exactly what they do anyway whenever they subcontract any part of the production. You don't need a single company that makes the entire plane and don't even have that now. You can have companies that make engines, other companies that make the passenger seats, other companies that make the fuselage, other compan…

Considering the design and certification is the expensive bit that needs thousands of sales to break even (want certification to be cheaper? Well I guess if you like more crashes) I'm not sure what some artificial separation of design and systems integration to create the illusion of a competitive market achieves, except perhaps worse safety as suddenly you've got a lot of companies selling the same licenced design m…

> Considering the design and certification is the expensive bit that needs thousands of sales to break even

What does that have to do with it? The design licensing entity is going to get a fee per-plane from every company doing final assembly. They're going to set the fee high enough to cover their costs but not so high that people go to a different design from another company instead.

> the illusion of a competitive market

How about an actually competitive market, because anyone can get the design on the same terms and can't use an exclusive right to foreclose competition in parts of the supply chain other than the one which is supposed to be under patent.

> competing only on how many QC corners they can cut to reduce prices...

As opposed to the monopolist whose customers can't even switch to a competitor when the supplier has a safety scandal, yet operates under the same profit incentive to cut costs?

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#319

Post by queenkjuul »

Grombobulous wrote: post #10
ivell wrote: post #2

This is a strange article. I did not find anything that is a blocker for China. China is a relative new comer to jet engines and this technology is tightly guarded by incumbents and needs time to mature. If China can master nuclear, space, chips, it seems a bit stretch to say they it is the Jer engines where they fail.

I even thought that the example of automobiles proved the jet engine analogy wrong. Sure, automobiles aren’t as complex as a jet engine, but they’re still complex, especially the internal combustion variants. Something like 10 years ago we were laughing at videos of Chinese cars spectacularly failing crash tests, and now China is selling to very heavily regulated markets. Same deal with things like high speed rail.

Year the article very much ignores that Geely actually can produce a competent modern combustion engine. Their latest model for use in hybrid drivetrains broke the record for thermal efficiency in a consumer combustion engine.

It also treats EV motors as "commodity brushless motors" completely glossing over the actual engineering behind modern EV motors.

Twenty five years ago a Chinese supercomputer was laughable. Today they build them. Ten years ago Chinese cars were laughable, now they're sold worldwide. Ten years ago people laughed at the "metro to nowhere," now it's the core of a new central business district.

The fact that domestic Chinese engines have entered military service, to me, is a pretty strong indicator that given another decade or two, they'll be building some of the most competitive jet engines on earth.

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#320

Post by queenkjuul »

labcomputer wrote: post #73
Grombobulous wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I even thought that the example of automobiles proved the jet engine analogy wrong. Sure, automobiles aren’t as complex as a jet engine, but they’re still complex, especially the internal combustion variants. Something like 10 years ago we were laughing at videos of Chinese cars spectacularly failing crash tests, and now China is selling to very heavily regulated markets. Same deal with things like high speed rail.

HSR is just a willingness to say "fuck you" to people who want to hold up progress by refusing to sell land for any price, or who sue to stop a more environmentally-friendly transportation on the grounds of... ... environmental impact. Say what you will, but I don't consider eminent domain to be some kind of mystical technology that only wizards possess. For automobiles, China didn't compete with the West on its own…

CRRC is, iirc, now the largest rolling stock manufacturer on earth, selling trains to countries all over the world.

Don't need eminent domain to do that.

Also, eminent domain is used routinely in the US, like for Texas' most recent highway expansions. And highways require a lot more land than rails. I don't buy that eminent domain is the real reason here.

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