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OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

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Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#311
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Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#312
post #99

If you're an investor you should try Deepseekv4 before you put your hard earned money in this gambling spree. Context - Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. "Thank you for your attention to this matter"

> Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. good luck getting a machine that can run its specs though. Even flash is goign to require ponying up 5-10 grand to run the minimal specs for it. The vast majority of people will find their machine falls behind as tech progresses long before they get a return on that investment. That said,…

You only need about a mac w 96GB or 128gb to run deepseek v4flash with ds4(https://github.com/antirez/ds4). Works mostly well

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#313
post #99

If you're an investor you should try Deepseekv4 before you put your hard earned money in this gambling spree. Context - Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. "Thank you for your attention to this matter"

> Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. good luck getting a machine that can run its specs though. Even flash is goign to require ponying up 5-10 grand to run the minimal specs for it. The vast majority of people will find their machine falls behind as tech progresses long before they get a return on that investment. That said,…

But...so does the tech sector. They will also have to continually upgrade their AI slop data centers to run newer better models, generating a heap of waste along it. And that money has to be made back.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#314
post #99

If you're an investor you should try Deepseekv4 before you put your hard earned money in this gambling spree. Context - Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. "Thank you for your attention to this matter"

It is worse than GPT5.5 ... but is so cheap that it doesn't really matter.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#315
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not "there will be", there already is a market of generic providers and you can use millions of tokens of DeepSeek-v4-flash for like 1 dollar. https://models.dev/?search=deepseek-v4-flash

Yeah, but will those hosted models help me write smut, advance my weekend CBRN hobby, advice on how to kill myself, advice on how to kill the person who made me want to kill myself, and how to set up a mega drug manufacturing operation like a real life Walter White?

you don't need AI to deal drugs, plenty of people with little education do it all the time

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#316
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.

I still think NVIDIA is a bad bet--where is their moat in the long term? Doesn't the sort of work NVIDIA engineers do look vulnerable to AI-assisted automation? NVIDIA engineers code against a well-defined test suite/specification, right?

I dont think that holds since the core cuda toolkit is proprietary

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#317

Soon to be part of your portfolio if you hold Nasdaq 100 or S&P 500 trackers line QQQ or SPY.

ETFs are a trap. Put most of your money in single stocks. It is ok to diversify, you don't need an ETF for this.

Absolutely, I moved all my investments to single stocks that I thought would do well that decision the best that I’ve ever made from an investment standpoint, the returns are infinitely better…

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#318

Looks like there is only limited money in the market and there is a race to get it first. Wonder if the free market concept should move the prices down in such a scenario?

That's not how money works. It's not an asset which is subject to conservation of matter like gold.

Banks make money by giving out loans is a meme, but it's actually true here. You kind of need collateral to do that, but a stock of a company which has revenue is a perfectly cromulent collateral even by strict standards. It's not even some infinite money glitch - it's kinda how the whole system is supposed to work.

The stock market is largely about betting on expectations of future value while money is just a token which is used to settle things. E.g. if you think about simplified mechanics of IPO, say, investor Alice buys OpenAI shares, OpenAI gets the money and Alice has shares. If for simplicity we assume that Alice and OpenAI use same bank and there are no intermediaries, then it literally just updates two cells in a database. And Alice now has shares which is an asset of known value, thus can be borrowed against, etc. Also, say, OpenAI can use that money to repay debt, then perhaps lender would buy SpaceX stocks - it's not like money was withdrawn from the system.

Of course, there can be some interference: multiple companies do IPO around same time it would reduce FOMO, and if they did it literally in one day there might be lack of liquidity.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#319
post #190
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google

Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.

I think that NVIDIA is quite risky. I still don't understand what is their moat. There is nothing in their hardware to make them irreplaceable.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#320
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropic said they’ll be profitable by q2 of this year. https://www.ft.com/content/a67248e7-f819-4dba-b0f7-3847df0a7...

In my mind, if they believed that they would IPO now , and not still be courting investors (which I believe they are still doing).

At the size of IPO courting investors is inevitable. You need to make sure that there is enough money available.
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