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SpaceX files to go public

nytimes.com

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Re: SpaceX files to go public

#311

Post by tristanj »

plaidfuji wrote: post #283
tristanj wrote: post #225

I'm a SpaceX investor, and from reading the comments here, I think most people here are missing why SpaceX has an outrageously high valuation. SpaceX's valuation only makes sense if you buy into their mission of creating a civilization on Mars, and that the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation is the vehicle that creates this future. If SpaceX achieves this, it would be the most valuable company ever created. I…

> SpaceX's valuation only makes sense if It’s funny, I hear the exact same phrasing used when justifying Tesla’s valuation. “It only makes sense if…” … if you ignore what the actual, physical business does today, and picture it doing something entirely different, beyond its current capabilities (robotaxis, androids, etc) The difference with this pie-in-the-sky ambition (Mars Colony) is that I don’t even understand ho…

My belief is that Mars will be colonized for ideological reasons, not for profit. A Mars colony won't be profitable. But it will be colonized, mostly for prestige, and also because of overcrowding & pollution, which will become bigger issues in the coming decades.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#312

Post by georgeecollins »

browningstreet wrote: post #169
jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

They’re notably going for a large issuance.

But a low stock float. I once had a meeting with a guy who said his company was worth $100m. How did he get that valuation? He sold 0.4 % of stock to friends and family at $400k.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#313

Post by manquer »

tim333 wrote: post #239
manquer wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>float a fairly small issuance SpaceX are widely reported to be planning to raise $75Billion in new capital. It may seem small a % for the valuation target. However that is about 3 times previous highest raise of $29B when Saudi Aramco went public few years back. The market simply may not be that deep[1] There is a good chance this one becomes the Wework of this decade. The valuation, amount being raised, cooling int…

>There is a good chance this one becomes the Wework of this decade. It's very different from WeWork which was basically just subletting office space with beer taps. At least SpaceX had done significant stuff with the rockets and Starlink.

The comparison was not about the strength of the business, it was about how the attempt to IPO and the original S-1 was the trigger for more realistic price discovery for Wework

My comment was that it is possible that by trying/becoming public SpaceX also will go through that same process once their numbers become available.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#314

Post by telotortium »

raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #303
hattmall wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Airplanes are going to be pretty profitable. They are sort of running a market cornering operation there. But, there will be competition eventually. Starlink is way faster than the alternatives so most airlines have switched and Starlink has rapidly increased their prices for aviation. Idk if it's enough though, they are definitely running lots of promos for home customers.

Delta’s ViaSat based Wireless is fine . The latency is hire. But it really isn’t a competitive disadvantage.

If Starlink becomes common enough on flights, I absolutely believe it will be a competitive disadvantage.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#315

Post by Natfan »

BurningFrog wrote: post #275
WatchDog wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overall it's worse than the other frontier models, but it's decent for queries about breaking news, due to being trained on twitter data. It's also better for queries about controversial topics, and topics that the other labs have deemed to be "unsafe". Politically, it differs quite a bit from other models.[0] It's right leaning, although it's closer neutral than other models, defining what neutral is a challenge tho…

The stated goal for Grok is to be as truthful as possible. Maybe that shows up as being more right leaning than the competition.

stated goal ≠ output

see: democratic people's republic of korea, the chinese communist party, american first

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#316

Post by a538058b »

xbmcuser wrote: post #310

Tesla valuation is about to crater and take most of Musk wealth with it so he needs the over valuation of SpaceX before the other rocket competitors can show that they can replicate what SpaceX is doing at cheaper prices.

I would like to have what you're having please

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#317

Post by themafia »

tristanj wrote: post #308
themafia wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"If everything goes perfectly according to plan over the next 30 years and they don't literally kill anyone through an accident it has huge value." I wish I had the guts to just lie to investors with a bald face. I personally think Musk is an underachiver.

that's a fake quote and not at all related to anything I wrote.

It's not a fake quote. It's an extreme distillation of the apparent core of your argument. It's how it appears to me. It's related to what you wrote in that someone read it and came away with that conclusion.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#318

Post by tristanj »

vjvjvjvjghv wrote: post #240
tristanj wrote: post #225

I'm a SpaceX investor, and from reading the comments here, I think most people here are missing why SpaceX has an outrageously high valuation. SpaceX's valuation only makes sense if you buy into their mission of creating a civilization on Mars, and that the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation is the vehicle that creates this future. If SpaceX achieves this, it would be the most valuable company ever created. I…

"I personally believe SpaceX has a 70% chance of achieving its Mars ambitions." When will that be? There are so many unsolved problems with Mars that creating a civilization on Mars will probably be decades or centuries away. Creating an autonomous station on Antarctica or the moon is child's play compared to Mars. And we are far away from that too.

In the 2040s. The upcoming wave of robotics will push the cost of goods down enormously low, robotics + need for compute + cheap goods will cause a huge increase in demand for raw resources; mining on earth will not be able to keep pace & environmentalists will get generally upset about environmental destruction caused by resource extraction.

People's attention will shift to obtaining resources from outer space, which leads to more demand for space exploration, and then space manufacturing to avoid polluting earth. Then the general sentiment towards a lunar/Mars colony will trend towards positive, and people will desire to run away from political problems on Earth. So significant investment towards building a Mars colony will happen then.

The technical problems with a Mars colony are not insurmountable, it's completely possible to build a colony with 2026 technology, just the cost is too high. Better technology (robots) and innovations (i.e. upgraded Starship) will push the cost down.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#319

Post by serf »

hattmall wrote: post #286
pnw wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They said the same thing about cell phones vs landlines back in the day. Based on Starlink's revenue doubling year on year, and a six fold increase since 2022, I don't think anyone really knows what the upper bounds for global access is yet. And traditional telcos are usually limited to a region whereas Starlink is global. Just the top 20 global telcos alone are almost $2 trillion in market cap and $1.35 trillion in…

>They said the same thing about cell phones vs landlines Did they? I don't really remember that tbh.

my most altruistic view : they said it through actions.

Rural areas were the last areas to join the mobile networks.

This is just a practical thing though; why would you build a tower for a community of 900 people when there are still gaps in the major metropolitan areas? It can't all happen simultaneously regardless of how badly we wish it could.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#320

Post by datsci_est_2015 »

vjvjvjvjghv wrote: post #240
tristanj wrote: post #225

I'm a SpaceX investor, and from reading the comments here, I think most people here are missing why SpaceX has an outrageously high valuation. SpaceX's valuation only makes sense if you buy into their mission of creating a civilization on Mars, and that the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation is the vehicle that creates this future. If SpaceX achieves this, it would be the most valuable company ever created. I…

"I personally believe SpaceX has a 70% chance of achieving its Mars ambitions." When will that be? There are so many unsolved problems with Mars that creating a civilization on Mars will probably be decades or centuries away. Creating an autonomous station on Antarctica or the moon is child's play compared to Mars. And we are far away from that too.

The ocean floor is more habitable than Mars.

The asteroid belt likely contains more easily-obtained rare metals that also don’t have to escape Mars’ terminal velocity.

Reading a comment like the grandparent’s while we’re surrounded by many tangible crises on earth is sickening. Especially many of them manufactured by the same man who the grandparent comment seems to deify (DOGE AIDS funding).

Anyway, I find myself feeling contempt for the people in this industry pretty often.

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