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Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

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311–320 of 419 posts

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#311
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not different because of who’s doing it but due to scale: creating news which steers markets is worse than trading based on insider information, and there’s a scale question as well (billions versus millions). I want them both prosecuted but in terms of priorities I’d favor the police going after armed robbers over porch thieves.

I think this sort of thinking is why we have people who continue to vote against their own self interests. The fact is we really don't have enough information to make meaningful conclusions about which party is causing more harm with insider trading. It would take a team of accountants and lawyers years to confidently measure this. A random individual isn't going to assess this well. But because people confidently dr…

Yes of course we are all brainwashed by the famously democrat controlled media at _the Wall Street Journal_ which is owned by prominent leftist Rupert Murdoch. bro you are being robbed in broad daylight.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#312
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you run the numbers: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47504505 You will see, that anything else other than a ground invasion, is guaranteed to give Iran a war victory.

What does "victory" or "defeat" actually entail here? It's not as if the US risks any territory?

"If the US doesn't win, it loses. if Iran doesn't lose, it wins"

.. per [John] on Krugman's substack.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#313
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you run the numbers: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47504505 You will see, that anything else other than a ground invasion, is guaranteed to give Iran a war victory.

What does "victory" or "defeat" actually entail here? It's not as if the US risks any territory?

These are very jingoist terms focused more on domestic political reactions than anything happening on the ground.

All conflicts, with the exception of genocidal or total war style conflicts - end with some kind of settlement, in which each side makes concessions, and then tries to sell it as a victory to their domestic audience.

This will be no different, which is why people are already lining up to spin everything and argue about who is the real winner or loser. That they have no problem expoliting the conflict for domestic political gain makes it clear that no one takes this war very seriously.

If there was a real winner or loser, no one would need to argue about it, it would be clear to everyone, since the loser would be under occupation, and that's not going to happen here, neither to the US, nor to Iran. This entire war is two sides shooting missiles and bombs at each other from a safe distance.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no one was surprised. i imagine both sides are actually in the same game. why do u think trump allow iran to sell oil still -_-. there was a lovely post earlier today on HN laying it all out pretty eloquently. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47499822 i personally think the people who do _business_ on both sides will find their way to profit out of this. as they always do. if u look at the timing of statements u…

What’s wrong with your shift key?

Must be a billionaire

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's likely that they'll see justice in a chaotic way , ie not connected to the specific crime. Most likely outcome is that they make huge paper profits that are then absolutely worthless because the dollar collapses and the property rights that enforce the wealth they gained from these transactions disappear as the government is toppled. Another likely outcome is that they get in the habit of doing criminal…

I like how "off them" is the libertarian way like thats some sort of stable procedure.

As someone in their mid 30's who followed Ron Paul back in the early 2000's, I have a hard time understanding this sentiment when, at least back then, "Your rights end where mine begin" was their foundation.

Idk, I don't have any loyalty towards any of these political parties so it shouldn't bother me but part of me gets defensive when I hear them described this way today. (Hell, I remember being the weirdo anti-interventionist in my circles and it was always the tea party ass hats that were uncomfortably enthusiastic about offing people they didn't like).

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does "victory" or "defeat" actually entail here? It's not as if the US risks any territory?

These are very jingoist terms focused more on domestic political reactions than anything happening on the ground. All conflicts, with the exception of genocidal or total war style conflicts - end with some kind of settlement, in which each side makes concessions, and then tries to sell it as a victory to their domestic audience. This will be no different, which is why people are already lining up to spin everything a…

> safe distance

Iranian people are being killed, so no. Cynically if you mean Iranian leadership, they're also being killed, so no.

American leadership and the Americans living in the seat of imperialism, sure.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For starters, you're not alone in this feeling. A lot of us are very hungry for justice, and a lot of the Trump administrations current tactics are openly grappling with the reality of jailtime and restitution if they lose power. These are unusual times, and so people who are not usually inclined toward retribution are hungry for it. That said, it's hard to reconcile that with the fact that Democrats continue to be t…

The Democratic Party isn’t without its own corruption either. Pelosi is one of the best stock traders ever and there’s a reason why people voted for Trump. The border being open was criminal negligence and this isn’t just a conservative talking point cities like Seattle near the Canadian border were maxed out on services the could provide to migrants. Across the board our politicians are corrupt rule breakers, it doe…

> it doesn’t matter if one is worse than the other.

I disagree with this, I think things which are worse are worse. This is orders of magnitude worse, and it is impacting my life more..

To keep things focused on the tech industry, a lot of our security is ultimately built on trust (Google and Apple won't ship malicious apps, CAs, etc) and this corruption erodes that trust.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#318
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you appending a sentence I never said within your quote of my position? Your comment reads like you are arguing with yourself. I never suggested anything to the contrary of much of what you write, so frankly I have no idea what point you are trying to make. I suggest you re-read my comment in full as I think we are predominantly in agreement.

It's a common HN convention to read: "this is an interpretion" > this is a quote Hopefully this clears things up.

Is it common in HN? I've seen it elsewhere, but I realy hate it. I prefer:

fake quote> If I use triple quotes, enything is valid.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For starters, you're not alone in this feeling. A lot of us are very hungry for justice, and a lot of the Trump administrations current tactics are openly grappling with the reality of jailtime and restitution if they lose power. These are unusual times, and so people who are not usually inclined toward retribution are hungry for it. That said, it's hard to reconcile that with the fact that Democrats continue to be t…

>the fact that Democrats continue to be the opposition party, and failed to even imprison Trump over four years for the things he'd done I'd like to point out it was NOT the Democrats who failed us , it was Republicans in congress who failed us. I'm really not sure how you can suggest Democrats failed us, when they had 2 successful impeachments against trump, but it was Senate Republicans that voted to not remove him…

I want to clarify my framing. In the same way one might say their goalie failed them, and not that the enemy who struck the ball failed them.

My phrasing that Dems "failed us" reduces politics to a "my team versus enemy team" framing, and I'd add more nuance if I were to express it in longer form. But I don't want to get in the habit of writing purely about politics here.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#320
post #305
post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel has been bombing (and conducting raids in?) Lebanon for years. They attacked Hezbollah's ally, Iran. And Hezbollah has been attacking Israel for years. It's not true that the conflict began with Hezbollah's recent actions.

They had a ceasefire which was broken by Hezbollah. Just like last time (2023). And the time before that (2006). And the time before that (2000). There is this one weird trick for lasting piece with Israel: stop being hostile.

> Unifil, the United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon that operates south of the Litani, says Israel has committed more than 10,000 air and ground violations during the ceasefire. According to the Lebanese health ministry, more than 330 people have been killed in Israeli attacks, including civilians.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdd560nvqqdo

27 November 2024, IDF shoots at Lebanese citizens

https://www.firstpost.com/world/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-i...

27–28 November 2024 Israel shoots and kills several Lebanese civilians in a different area, and injures more with a tank.

https://www.ft.com/content/a1b60922-edb4-4cde-a870-95010be89...

29 November 2024 IDF shoots at civilians at a funeral, uproots olive trees, demolishes homes in Lebanon, and shoots at journalists.

https://scheerpost.com/2024/11/30/israeli-army-pushes-deeper...

8 December 2024 An israeli airstrike kills three civilians.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/3-civilians-killed-in-i...

I have about a hundred or more such incidents. The only effective one weird trick with Israel is to not exist near it.

I'm genuinely curious: in the face of overwhelming evidence of Israel being a monstrous force of death and destruction in this world, and popular opinion continuing to notice this and thus turn against Israel, why do you maintain the old rhetorical defenses? Do you personally genuinely believe Israel is just defending itself? Most Israelis I talk to have long abandoned that as obviously false, so I doubt you're motivated by national fervor as they were - they usually would toe into Islamophobia instead: "if we didn't do it to them first, they'd do it to us." "Why didn't they develop their land in the hundreds of years before Israel arrived? Now Israel settled territory is farmed and flourishing." Those sort of arguments.

What do you think the endgame is here in terms of popular support? IDF soldiers gleefully post their war crimes on Instagram and we all watch it, it's not like the truth can be spun anymore.

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