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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#311

Post by righthand »

mattmaroon wrote: post #308
righthand wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will start by stating that none of the media landscape is referring to it as World War 3. That is a conclusion I made myself. Further I think “the economy isn’t as bad as it could be so everything else that doesn’t directly affect me is propaganda and all the problems right now in the world are perfectly fine” is the ultimate propaganda. You’re essentially saying “shut up you’re still alive just be okay with the wo…

The propaganda isn't extreme in mainstream media, it's extreme on social media, subreddits, etc. I am sure the NYT knows WW3 has not begun. I'll happily wager anything you want that it has not if we can define it. You definitely did not come to that conclusion without help, and the fact that you came to it is forgiveable (not everyone is a student of history). "Further I think “the economy isn’t as bad as it could be…

I dont hate my country, just a few electeds running it. I do not spend time on social media and I read a variety of news sources. I’m not really sure what your point is other than to label everything propaganda that sounds negative. I can’t be unhappy with aspects of my country and express it otherwise I’m some kind of robot to propaganda. I’m not sure about you but I have organized people for protests and participated in real local change. I honestly do not understand what makes you happy in being an optimist-defeatist. Perhaps best to stop here.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#312

Post by gambiting »

WarmWash wrote: post #268
gambiting wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly don't even understand what you mean by that. Europe has accepted an extraordinary number of refugees from Ukraine giving them immediate and full rights to live and work within its territory, keeps donating billions of dollars worth of goods to keep Ukraine going, provides training to Ukrainian military personal and ramped up its military production specifically to bolster Ukraine. How has Europe failed her…

If the US wasn't around, Russia would likely be rolling around most of Eastern Europe today. From 2022 to 2025, America and Europe went dollar for dollar in support of Ukraine. And many of the Euro dollars went to purchasing weapons and defense from the US. Euro leaders are terrified by this. Europe, which is supposed to have global parity with the big players, was just as much (maybe even more) of a paper tiger as R…

>If the US wasn't around, Russia would likely be rolling around most of Eastern Europe today. From 2022 to 2025

No one is saying otherwise. Still, I don't see how you can describe Europe as failing. Unless, like I complained in my original comment - you see the world as some kind of race where only one country is "winning" and everyone else is losing(failing).

>> America and Europe went dollar for dollar in support of Ukraine. And many of the Euro dollars went to purchasing weapons and defense from the US.

In terms of military spending, yes. In terms of refugees support and civil expenditure, Europe was obviously ahead. And again, this isn't a race to see who can spend more.

>> Even more harrowing when your population doesn't understand the need for defense.

As a Pole, I don't see this sentiment at all - Poland really understands the need to defend itself, with our spending being allocated accordingly - and importantly, new funds are coming with the specific provisions to prevent them being spent on American technology.

>> of NATO (read: America)

Obviously, America has the largest fighting force on the planet. But are we just going to pretend that UK, France and Germany don't have capable armies which would be capable of defending our eastern flank if needed, including with nuclear deterrent? I know Americans are being fed the stories of NATO being entirely US and no one else, but obviously even cursory inspection shows that this isn't true?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#313

Post by mattmaroon »

righthand wrote: post #311
mattmaroon wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The propaganda isn't extreme in mainstream media, it's extreme on social media, subreddits, etc. I am sure the NYT knows WW3 has not begun. I'll happily wager anything you want that it has not if we can define it. You definitely did not come to that conclusion without help, and the fact that you came to it is forgiveable (not everyone is a student of history). "Further I think “the economy isn’t as bad as it could be…

I dont hate my country, just a few electeds running it. I do not spend time on social media and I read a variety of news sources. I’m not really sure what your point is other than to label everything propaganda that sounds negative. I can’t be unhappy with aspects of my country and express it otherwise I’m some kind of robot to propaganda. I’m not sure about you but I have organized people for protests and participat…

Yes it is best to stop here, you’re reading things into what I’m saying that aren’t there. Every response completely misses my point.

I hope you figure it out.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#314

Post by pocksuppet »

dh2022 wrote: post #273
giardini wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is your local city and county, not the "American empire". And your judgement in choosing where you live!8))

Take a drive on an interstate highways. Whenever I take an Uber/Lyft to the airport I ask the usually (more like 100%) foreign born driver to compare the highway (I5) and the airport (SeaTac) with the same from his country. The comparison is bad for the US. US is a third world country, but Americans do no want to admit that.

The first world is defined as the countries that are affiliated with the USA, so that's not strictly accurate. However, we can say it's a developing country - a first-world developing country.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#315

Post by pocksuppet »

xienze wrote: post #298
dh2022 wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take a drive on an interstate highways. Whenever I take an Uber/Lyft to the airport I ask the usually (more like 100%) foreign born driver to compare the highway (I5) and the airport (SeaTac) with the same from his country. The comparison is bad for the US. US is a third world country, but Americans do no want to admit that.

> I ask the usually (more like 100%) foreign born driver to compare the highway (I5) and the airport (SeaTac) with the same from his country. The comparison is bad for the US. > US is a third world country, but Americans do no want to admit that. So why do so many people want to keep coming here?

It's a financial accident. After World War 2, the USA was the least damaged country on the winning side, so it got to own the western world's financial system. It used that [exorbitant privilege](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege) - possibly unintentionally - to import money and export inflation for decades, keeping the exchange rate skewed in its favor.

People aren't coming for the scenic canyons, they're coming to get some of that USA money, so they can be on the benefitting side of the skewed exchange rate, instead of the losing side. Many of them exchange part of their salary for their home currency and send it home, in quantities that would be impossible to accrue if you did the same work in that country.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#316

Post by leptons »

davidw wrote: post #48
arjie wrote: post #39

One of the things I do like about the US, and that I think is a reason for America's ability to meet the challenges this country faces is that it has good data collection and aggregation mechanisms: from the seemingly-banal surveys and so on to satellite remote-sensing. There's three more years to go but afterwards (and perhaps even post the mid-terms) we should be able to hammer back some of this nonsense like being…

This is going to take a generation or two to fix. If we're lucky and work hard at it.

Only possible if we can keep the party that repeatedly destroys the economy when they get into power, out of office for a generation or two. That seems unlikely considering the overall stupidity of the electorate.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#317

Post by culi »

tempestn wrote: post #259
culi wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

I'm not sure a billionaire building a bunker is much different from you or me buying fire insurance. It's not that I expect my house to burn down, and it certainly won't prevent me doing everything I can to prevent fires. Even with it, my house burning down would be really bad. But I can afford the insurance, so why not have what protection I can?

did you skip over this part?

> “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?”

The paragraph that follows is

> This single question occupied us for the rest of the hour. They knew armed guards would be required to protect their compounds from raiders as well as angry mobs. One had already secured a dozen Navy Seals to make their way to his compound if he gave them the right cue. But how would he pay the guards once even his crypto was worthless? What would stop the guards from eventually choosing their own leader?

So how is it "much different"? These people are focused on maintaining their power and social status in a hierarchy. They are not just getting insurance. They're looking to maintain social control

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#318

Post by culi »

b112 wrote: post #302
culi wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

I don't understand this. That is, if you have $1B, I think you'd be a lunatic to not spend $20M in "insurance". Why wouldn't you "prep"? I'm not rich, but I live in rural Canada. So I have the possibility of being cut off from power, and during intense storms days or even weeks. I have 6 months of canned food, the logic being that I may have company, or I may need to care for my neighbours during time of need. And if…

Did you not read this part?

> “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?”

The paragraph that follows that says:

> This single question occupied us for the rest of the hour. They knew armed guards would be required to protect their compounds from raiders as well as angry mobs. One had already secured a dozen Navy Seals to make their way to his compound if he gave them the right cue. But how would he pay the guards once even his crypto was worthless? What would stop the guards from eventually choosing their own leader?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#319

Post by michaelchisari »

dh2022 wrote: post #304
michaelchisari wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

| The collapse of USSR was 100% caused by internal causes. I wouldn't take the time to argue otherwise, although it's a question of what's considered an "internal cause." Afghanistan comes to mind. But generally, yes, absent any external pressure, the internal mismanagement still would have had the Soviet system in a very bad way and collapse would have been a matter of time. So we're not particularly in disagreement…

Afghanistan - economically not a big impact. The economic pressures in the 80s were low agricultural productivity requiring imports from Western countries, low oil/gas prices and productivity, endemic corruption. And if we really want to be pedantic, nobody forced USSR to invade Afghanistan. I had to look up Jeffrey Sachs (0). He was an adviser-that is all he did. He did not impose anything on Yeltsin or Russia. I ag…

| I had to look up Jeffrey Sachs

Like I said, it's complicated.

| I agree that American decline will not resemble Russian collapse.

Then we are in agreement.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#320

Post by iugtmkbdfil834 »

jeffbee wrote: post #211
iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternative is to build something better. Just about anything is better than the current survey system. What I would propose is something akin to "derived real-data unemployment system". All this data exists now, but is distributed. It can be stitched together, but if one was so inclined. No, it doesn't mean I am wrong.

"BLS CPS is worse than a hypothetical better thing" is tautological, void, and without meaning.

It must be nice to live in a simple binary world.
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