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US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

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Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#311
post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Risk free revenue to the VC. How is that risk free? If the clinic goes bankrupt the VC will be on the hook for the rest of the loan. It’s not free money.

The usual arrangement for an LBO is to saddle the bought company, the vet in this example, with the debt,or spin off a secondary company from the vet with the poorest assets and most to all of the debt. It's all a scummy business.

Then why is everyone complaining "my vet sucks now" and not "my vet went out of business"?

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So yes, PE funds are probably overvalued right now and there are a lot of PE funds getting rich off management fees while not providing promised returns...but this comment is so wrong I don't know where to begin. First, VC stands for venture capital, which is a subset of private equity that does zero LBOs and doesn't even acquire any businesses. VC funds buy equity in startups, and take on zero debt to do so. You hav…

As someone who's life is currently being affected directly by PE middle-manning something I spend a LOT of time on, I am sensitive to this issue. IF you have problems with the vocab and terms, fine. But I have seen personally this issue in my life, that is affecting my bank account. And we have seen example after example of these LBO's ruining otherwise functioning businesses. It's happening. All over the place.

> And we have seen example after example of these LBO's ruining otherwise functioning businesses. It's happening. All over the place.

Your anecdotes and the anecdotes in media are no statistical evidence for "this is happening all over the place".

Yes, PEs/LBOs deserves criticism, but "PE" and "LBO" isn't a one size fits all situation.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#313
post #309
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Banks are lending to private equity firms to fund purchases of businesses. Yes some businesses are SaaS but here's the real problem: Many businesses' sole purpose is _leveraged buy-outs_ which really is the devil in disguise. It goes like this: A VC specialising in veterinary clinics finds a nice, privately owned town clinic with regular customers and "fair" prices, approach the owners saying "we love the clinic yo…

why wouldnt the previous owners just open a new vet clinic, and hore all the same people back? or some manager at it? it must be easy enough to raise that starting money, if the PE firm could get the loan

An acquisition like that would have non-compete restrictions. And often the previous owners don't get 100% cash, they would receive part as shares in the new holding company.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#314
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Banks are lending to private equity firms to fund purchases of businesses. Yes some businesses are SaaS but here's the real problem: Many businesses' sole purpose is _leveraged buy-outs_ which really is the devil in disguise. It goes like this: A VC specialising in veterinary clinics finds a nice, privately owned town clinic with regular customers and "fair" prices, approach the owners saying "we love the clinic yo…

So yes, PE funds are probably overvalued right now and there are a lot of PE funds getting rich off management fees while not providing promised returns...but this comment is so wrong I don't know where to begin. First, VC stands for venture capital, which is a subset of private equity that does zero LBOs and doesn't even acquire any businesses. VC funds buy equity in startups, and take on zero debt to do so. You hav…

[deleted]

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#315
post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> now the VC lends the money from the bank, buys the clinic, and here's the important part: _they push the debt onto the clinic's books This mostly correctly describes a leveraged buyout (LBO). LBOs are done by LBO shops, a type of private equity (PE) firm. Not VCs. (VCS do venture capital, a different type of PE.) And LBO debt isn’t “pushed” onto the company’s books, it’s never on the sponsor’s (LBO shop’s) books in…

Why does Blue Owl borrow from a bank to lend? Why would it need investors if it borrows from a bank?

> Why does Blue Owl borrow from a bank to lend? Why would it need investors if it borrows from a bank?

Leverage. They raise money in their public funds. And then they borrow, typically around 50% of their capital, to amplify returns.

Note: “Private credit lenders won’t lose money before private equity firms do. That’s how the capital stack of companies work: Equity is the first in line for losses. Before lenders like Apollo Global Management, Blue Owl Capital or Ares Management lose a dollar on their loans if a portfolio company fails, the private equity owners will already have been hit” [1]. Leveraging the senior debt is actually less risky than leveraging the underlying equity. (Though obviously they compound when done together.)

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/business/dealbook/private...

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No bank would agree to such nonsense

> No bank would agree to such nonsense Ohhhh a live one! Sir do I have a wonderful bridge in Brooklyn to sell you! :) Fun fact: banks fund this sort of nonsense constantly. I've asked about this before: why they do it. They must be making money I just don't know how. The LBO guys pay themselves massive management fees and dump the debt on the company so they walk away scott free. My wild guess was the banks offload t…

> wild guess was the banks offload the eventual IPO onto investors and so make their money on the IPO fees and funneling their own clients the dead-man-walking shares

The banks get paid back their debt when the next PE fund buys the company or the company pays it off. Unless an IPO is being done to pay off debt, which it never is, the mechanism you describe doesn’t occur.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#317
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Banks are lending to private equity firms to fund purchases of businesses. Yes some businesses are SaaS but here's the real problem: Many businesses' sole purpose is _leveraged buy-outs_ which really is the devil in disguise. It goes like this: A VC specialising in veterinary clinics finds a nice, privately owned town clinic with regular customers and "fair" prices, approach the owners saying "we love the clinic yo…

> now the VC lends the money from the bank, buys the clinic, and here's the important part: _they push the debt onto the clinic's books This mostly correctly describes a leveraged buyout (LBO). LBOs are done by LBO shops, a type of private equity (PE) firm. Not VCs. (VCS do venture capital, a different type of PE.) And LBO debt isn’t “pushed” onto the company’s books, it’s never on the sponsor’s (LBO shop’s) books in…

> And LBO debt isn’t “pushed” onto the company’s books, it’s never on the sponsor’s (LBO shop’s) books in the first place to any material extent.

Doesn't the LBO shop still need to pay off the debt, technically speaking? AFAIU the company's assets (hospital in OP's example) are used as collateral in a credit agreement between the LBO shop (as the hospital's new shareholder) and the bank. But unless I'm mistaken, this is not exactly the same as the debt being on the hospital's books and the hospital having a credit agreement with the bank. (For an increase in debt on the liabilities side of the balance sheet there would have to be an equal increase of assets on the other side. The hospital didn't receive the cash, though, nor does the hospital suddenly own itself.)

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#318
post #245
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> secured loans which will be less risky than the underlying loans So, it's sort of like bundled mortgage securities, where you take some bad loans and mix them together to get a "less risky" loan, since the chance of them all defaulting at once is less than the chance of all but one defaulting. Presumably, since banks (by definition, an intermediary) are involved, those are then recursively repackaged until they hav…

I don't think that's a true etymology of "bucket shop," which per my recollection of Livermore was just an off-track-betting parlor for ticker symbols, but where nobody actually bought the shares (bundled or otherwise). Strictly a retail swindle, having nothing directly to do with the risk/maturity bundling work you are criticizing above.

We had them in the US before the SEC, which regulated them out of existence.

It’s likely the term is a pejorative referring to the Liverpool setup you describe.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. The clinic is the collateral to the bank. VC stand to loose nothing. It does not happen overnight. But what happens is after they take control of the clinic or company they change the sales model to boost reoccurring revenue, this then allows the clinic or target company to take loans out. Because they look good on paper. The company then pays VC back when then pays bank back. This can be done in about 6mo to 1…

Who are the bagholders in these scenarios?

What's the betting that it's (somehow, eventually) the taxpayers?

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#320
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> secured loans which will be less risky than the underlying loans So, it's sort of like bundled mortgage securities, where you take some bad loans and mix them together to get a "less risky" loan, since the chance of them all defaulting at once is less than the chance of all but one defaulting. Presumably, since banks (by definition, an intermediary) are involved, those are then recursively repackaged until they hav…

> where you take some bad loans and mix them together to get a "less risky" loan, since the chance of them all defaulting at once is less than the chance of all but one defaulting Yes. This is mathematically sound. > those are then recursively repackaged until they have an A+ rating, or some such nonsense, right? AAA-rated CLOs performed with the credit one would expect from that rating. The problem, in 2008, wasn't…

Generally speaking, the SEC exists to regulate communications about the underlying realities driving security values.

Any mechanism involving “the bank invested (lent) my deposits to organizations that avoid SEC scrutiny, and used an instrument that spreads culpability for fraud across many unrelated and unwitting organizations” will eventually lead to investment bubbles and fraud.

If I knew (and chose to have) 5% of my savings in private debt funds, where the holdings were public and had reporting duties, that’d be fine.

Instead, that money is being lent behind closed doors. If the loans pay out, then the ultra wealthy make money. If they default, they’ll be bailed out to prevent contagion. (And they still make money, since the lent money went somewhere before the loan default.)

This has happened at least a dozen times in the US, including in living memory.

Also, my example is not sound. Here is a counter example with a basket of investments with different risk profiles: I hold A directly. I hold A’, which is a leveraged fund that only holds A. I also hold B which is a business whose only customer is A. I hold C, which has a contract with A and is securing the loan with future revenue from the contract. Finally, I hold D which is A’s primary customer and a majority shareholder of C.

Note that my example describes actual privately held companies that are probably the ones providing the private debt in the article.

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