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How will OpenAI compete?

ben-evans.com

311–320 of 693 posts

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#311
ChatGPT is not OpenAI's product, it's the demo. The product is selling their technology to tens or hundreds of thousands of companies that embed it in e.g. customer support chat services.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#312
As far as I can tell Google Gemini has the best overall integrations (Android, WearOS, Google Home) with the only voice recognition that actually works (Gemini Live).

Anthropic Claude has the best integrations with coding; what would make sense is for them to focus on that segment.

Other AI companies don't have anything really compelling. Meta has a model that's fully open-source, but then that's not particularly useful outside of helping them remain somewhat relevant, but not market-leading.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#313

Well there's the whole race to ASI thing. Whoever gets there first, the world is theirs. The thing will learn how learn, an intelligence feedback loop, make its own apps, find more efficient algorithms, deploy itself to more locations, bankrupt all competitors, embed itself in everyone's lives, and create a complete monopoly for the parent company that can never be touched. Until it goes rogue anyway. (Aside, it's in…

> Whoever gets there first, the world is theirs. Yes, just like the first person who will invent perpetual motion. /s PS: to be clear, I'm not saying it's impossible but so far, just like perpetual motion or the Fountain of Youth it's an exciting idea anybody can easily understand yet nobody solved since it's been phrased out. It's not a solved problem and assuming it suddenly is is simply a (marketing) lie.

I think the threshold is way below self improve at 0.1% per day. I wonder what is it? At 0.1% is already going to eat the world a couple of months I think

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#314

As far as I can tell Google Gemini has the best overall integrations (Android, WearOS, Google Home) with the only voice recognition that actually works (Gemini Live). Anthropic Claude has the best integrations with coding; what would make sense is for them to focus on that segment. Other AI companies don't have anything really compelling. Meta has a model that's fully open-source, but then that's not particularly use…

Model available != open source

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#316

As far as I can tell Google Gemini has the best overall integrations (Android, WearOS, Google Home) with the only voice recognition that actually works (Gemini Live). Anthropic Claude has the best integrations with coding; what would make sense is for them to focus on that segment. Other AI companies don't have anything really compelling. Meta has a model that's fully open-source, but then that's not particularly use…

> Anthropic Claude has the best integrations with coding

Disagree, Codex is neck and neck with A/ on coding front

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#317
It would be an unpopular opinion but I am here to say it:

OpenAI has the best model, that is how they are going to compete.

Their chatbot business could be in trouble, but Gemini needs a LOT of work to make it better to use too.

Coding wise, it has become very competitive. They need to sell better and sell aggressively

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#318
post #249

I just wonder how long it'll take local models to be good enough for 99% of use cases. It seems like it has to happen sooner or later. My hunch is that in five years we'll look back and see current OpenAI as something like a 1970's VAX system. Once PCs could do most of what they could, nobody wanted a VAX anymore. I have a hard time imagining that all the big players today will survive that shift. (And if that partic…

Taking the opposite side of that bet, here is why: * even if an openweight model appears on huggingface today, exceeding SOTA, given my extensive experience with a wide variety of model sizes, I would find it highly surprising the "99% of use cases" could be expressed in * Meanwhile: I pulled claude to look into consumer GPU VRAM growth rates, median consumer VRAM went 1-2GB @ 2015 to ~8GB @ 2026, rougly doubles ever…

yeah but effective GPU RAM has ramped thanks to unified mem on apple. The 5y thing doesn't hold anymore.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#319
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLM performance has already plateaued. I don't know, nor care what benchmarks are saying, because they not once translated to the real world for me. The only thing that has seen massive boost are harnesses around AI. And AI companies are behind here compared to OSS.

> And AI companies are behind here compared to OSS. How so?

Every proprietary harness is just proprietary junk without ability to extend it without polluting context. This includes claude-code, gemini-cli, codex etc. They have tools which hardcode the behavior that is impossible to modify, they add tools you may not need that pollute context, they inject an entire textbook's worth of words into the system prompt which pollutes context, they provide zero observability into what the agent is doing when it's launching a subagent as one example.

They don't provide easy way to use multiple models from multiple providers for varying tasks. One model may be the best thing on earth at one thing, but fail miserably for another. Try orchestrating multiple agents from claude, gemini and codex in any of these proprietary boxes.

They also... suck at TUI UX. I don't know if it was fixed already, but claude code had flickering issue that was unresolved for more than a year.

You need to take a very good care of what goes into your context. A black box of proprietary harnesses is not it. Check out pi [1] for example, which is a very minimal harness with really nice extension system. The idea is that you start with barebones and add things that you need for your own goals.

claude-code HAS to have all these bells and whistles that pollute context to support larger audiences that can't tinker with it. If you have the ability to only pull in only what you need and extend things in a way that works for your workflow, you'll always get the best experience. And claude-code may never be that without making it complicated for the masses. OSS will always win here.

[1] https://github.com/badlogic/pi-mono

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#320

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

by this argument Google will win though. Identical interface with similar quality answers
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