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America's pensions can't beat Vanguard but they can close a hospital

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Re: America's pensions can't beat Vanguard but they can close a hospital

#311

Post by wizzwizz4 »

p_j_w wrote: post #137
wizzwizz4 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You, presumably, have examples of these cases. Could you show them to us, please? (Given your understanding of the evidence available to us "ignorant, low-information HN users", you know you're making a bold claim, which creates a corresponding burden of proof.)

Did you read TFA? There are some great examples there for the health care sector, and not just one off sensational examples.

TFA provides examples where private equity has been destructive in the healthcare sector:

> A 2024 Review of Financial Studies paper https://www.nber.org/papers/w28474> found that private equity acquisition of nursing homes was associated with an ~10% increase in deaths, implying approximately 22,500 additional deaths over the twelve-year sample period.

I was asking for examples where private equity has made things better.

Re: America's pensions can't beat Vanguard but they can close a hospital

#312

Post by tehjoker »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #94
tehjoker wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

other poorer countries just pay all or most tuition for students and own the universities

The State governments do own many universities. To a large extent, the government is responsible for the current situation. Also some of the universities are older than the government by hundreds of years and private, the government can’t just “own” them.

This is true, state gov does own many universities, though there was a concerted effort to bring the idea of privatization and deregulation there too since at least the 1990s by cutting subsidies.

I met a Polish student a number of years ago who was attending a U.S. Ivy League institution. She said people made fun of her back home for "buying her degree". That has stuck with me ever since.

Re: America's pensions can't beat Vanguard but they can close a hospital

#313

Post by epistasis »

scruple wrote: post #260
FireBeyond wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When Peter Thiel started a bank run by telling all his investments to pull their funds, that exposed the SCB mismanagement. I think he did more than that. He either has precognition Nostradamus would be proud of or he absolutely had insider information, and a good amount of it. 1. He knew that when the bank closure would be, because despite how the FDIC has very detailed and historically very successful efforts at…

In the end it's a distinction without a difference. The result is the same, and Thiel was building the fire escape before anyone could smell smoke.

I don't think you can credit Thiel with smelling smoke, he lit the fire. He heard the same statements from SVB leadership about the problems with T-bills and higher fed rates, realized that there was a huge spread between current market value and long market value of SVBs T-bills, and threw a match on it.

Re: America's pensions can't beat Vanguard but they can close a hospital

#314

Post by gruez »

dbspin wrote: post #285
gruez wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>combined with a school system designed to educate - in direct opposition to current goal of producing labour units for corporate; would massively improve pretty much ever aspect of American life. "producing labour units for corporate" at least pays the bills. What's the alternative? Education is for "finding yourself" or whatever? That's a nice platitude, but "finding yourself" with a film studies course doesn't pay…

A liberal education serves a social function. It makes human beings. There's a student loan crisis because US education is dominated by for profit colleges (in start contrast to most other countries) and because student loans lack ordinary consumer productions (in stark contrast to all other countries). In the US students act as guarantors for debt obligations between the government and commercial institutions. The r…

>There's a student loan crisis because US education is dominated by for profit colleges

No it's not. Most students go to public or non-profit colleges, and most student loans is from government (not private) lenders.

Re: America's pensions can't beat Vanguard but they can close a hospital

#315

Post by nofriend »

hypersoar wrote: post #211
MontyCarloHall wrote: post #128

Isn't the main problem with pensions today the dramatic increase in life expectancy post-retirement? They were never intended to support decades of retirement: in the old days, you retired at 65 and there was a good chance you'd be dead by 70, at most 75. (When Social Security was established in the 1930s, life expectancy was only 61.) Nowadays, there's a good chance you'll live beyond 90, with expenses increasing di…

Using overall life expectancy here is misleading, as it includes the risk of childhood mortality. You have to look at life expectancy at a given age. According to the SSA's life tables[0], life expectancy for men at 65 in 1930 and 1940 was about 12 years. In 2020, it was about 17. A significant increase, but not nearly as extreme as you're saying. [0] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/pdf_studies/study120.pdf

In 1930, if a person starts paying into the pension at 30, at that point they have a life expectancy of 37 years, ie they will benefit from the pension for 2 years. Life expectancy at age 30 goes up to 48 in 2020, which gives them 13 years after retirement, 6.5 times higher. Assuming linearity, the average life expectancy after retirement during the time you are paying into your pension between 30 and 65 would be 7 years in 1930, and 17 in 2020.

Re: America's pensions can't beat Vanguard but they can close a hospital

#316

Post by tmp10423288442 »

zeroonetwothree wrote: post #198
MontyCarloHall wrote: post #128

Isn't the main problem with pensions today the dramatic increase in life expectancy post-retirement? They were never intended to support decades of retirement: in the old days, you retired at 65 and there was a good chance you'd be dead by 70, at most 75. (When Social Security was established in the 1930s, life expectancy was only 61.) Nowadays, there's a good chance you'll live beyond 90, with expenses increasing di…

At age 65 life expectancy hasn’t gone up as much, only around 6 years more today vs 1930. So it’s still a factor but not as dramatic as you make it seem.

What is the value in 1930 though? Only 6 years could in fact mean over 100% increase in life expectancy at age 65. There's a reason full Social Security now starts at 67 rather than 65, and you are incentivized to take Social Security at age 70 if possible.

Re: America's pensions can't beat Vanguard but they can close a hospital

#317

Post by ineptech »

aresant wrote: post #208
jltsiren wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Individuals saving for retirement must deal with the risk that they live to an old age and their savings must last for decades. Pension plans have a higher safe withdrawal rate, because people on the average have average lifespans. When a plan member dies early, their remaining contributions can be used (partially or in full) to fund other members' pensions.

Really good comment and fair point But mortality credits (pooling) don't solve the math of the discount rate - they add 100 - 150 basis points of reduction so retarget to 5.5% vs 4% if generous So they are still structurally designed where they HAVE to allocate towards risk to meet their targets which is at core of issue

It feels like you're missing the whole point of the whole article, which is that treating public pensions like a bunch of 401ks misses the opportunity to invest all that money in something that benefits the retirees collectively. I'd rather retire on 4% from a bond to improve the school my grandkids go to than 5.5% from a PE firm that intends to "more efficiently manage" the retirement home I live in.

Re: America's pensions can't beat Vanguard but they can close a hospital

#318

Post by p_j_w »

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #311
p_j_w wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read TFA? There are some great examples there for the health care sector, and not just one off sensational examples.

TFA provides examples where private equity has been destructive in the healthcare sector: > A 2024 Review of Financial Studies paper https://www.nber.org/papers/w28474 > found that private equity acquisition of nursing homes was associated with an ~10% increase in deaths, implying approximately 22,500 additional deaths over the twelve-year sample period. I was asking for examples where private equity has made things…

Sorry, I must have misread what you said.

Re: America's pensions can't beat Vanguard but they can close a hospital

#319

Post by 46493168 »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #254
46493168 wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Someone who graduates from college in their early 20s with six figures in debt could file for bankruptcy immediately and have it be off their credit history by the time they've saved up a down payment and want to get a mortgage. So change the bankruptcy law? It’s a pretty easy fix. Create a whole new chapter if that’s what it takes. Make it dischargeable only after 7 years of nonpayment, do means testing… bankruptc…

> Make it dischargeable only after 7 years of nonpayment You don't really want to give people an incentive for nonpayment. > do means testing Bankruptcy already does that. But what are your "means" the day you graduate from college and haven't yet found a job, or temporarily take a low-paying one on purpose to meet the eligibility requirements? You would need something like, deferred payments while you're unemployed…

The questions you have are best put to a judge. The law is not meant to cover every possible permutation of circumstances and motivations.

If student loans are dischargeable in bankruptcy, lenders will price it in or refuse to lend without a gurantor.

Re: America's pensions can't beat Vanguard but they can close a hospital

#320

Post by jancsika »

WalterBright wrote: post #183
chasd00 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a parent of a 16 and almost 14 year old i'm effectively home schooling personal finance with them. My wife and I got none from our parents and were preyed upon constantly. I think I was 45 when i finally got my student loans paid off. My wife did many years in a dangerous, low-performing, HS as a teacher to get hers forgiven. Sending an 18 year old off to college without a solid understanding of finance is like th…

It's a crying shame that public high schools do not teach basic finance, basic accounting, and how a business works. In other words, they don't teach anything about how our economy works.

https://www.wunc.org/show/due-south/2024-06-10/personal-fina...
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