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Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

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Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#311

Post by fc417fc802 »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #188
nradov wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In most of America there is abundant free parking on private property including homes, stores, and workplaces. That is hardly a subsidy. I understand the argument that dense cities shouldn't have so much free public street parking but there are only a handful of neighborhoods where that even matters.

The "free parking" isn't really free, you just have land that is really cheap devoted to it. And where it isn't...well, American housing prices and rents are increased to pay for them. Street parking matters in almost every neighborhood in Seattle now...since parking on its own is expensive, and you will also have to pay for a few busted windows on your car for the pleasure of free street parking. The highways are he…

> And where it isn't...well, American housing prices and rents are increased to pay for them.

The driver of housing cost in US cities is lack of supply. Parking spaces are a drop in the bucket versus what is missing. The root cause is zoning laws; particularly the height restrictions as they currently stand.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#312

Post by dmitrygr »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #188
nradov wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In most of America there is abundant free parking on private property including homes, stores, and workplaces. That is hardly a subsidy. I understand the argument that dense cities shouldn't have so much free public street parking but there are only a handful of neighborhoods where that even matters.

The "free parking" isn't really free, you just have land that is really cheap devoted to it. And where it isn't...well, American housing prices and rents are increased to pay for them. Street parking matters in almost every neighborhood in Seattle now...since parking on its own is expensive, and you will also have to pay for a few busted windows on your car for the pleasure of free street parking. The highways are he…

> American housing prices and rents are increased to pay for them.

Which means people were willing to pay to have a place to park. WAI

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#313

Post by tgsovlerkhgsel »

everforward wrote: post #73
tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only semi rational thing that could explain it is the robots.

I don’t even think that’s rational, but it may be what’s propping them up. Last earnings call Musk said Optimus wasn’t doing “meaningful work” at Tesla and as far as I’m aware they haven’t done meaningful work anywhere. I think they’re behind the curve there. Figure AI recently finished an apparently successful feasibility trial of their humanoid robots with BMW and Boston Dynamics has a deal with Hyundai for their A…

Our world is adapted for humans, so humanoid robots will fit in most places. They might not be the best choice, but the universality has a good chance of making it worth it through economies of scale.

Building a custom robot that can stock shelves at a supermarket won't be worth it for a long time, but programming an existing humanoid platform might work. Find a couple hundred tasks like this (including household use), and that platform now has huge economies of scale.

Now, when you're starting a small factory, using the existing humanoids might make more sense than getting custom tooling, at least for some tasks. You'll often see factories where some tasks that could, in theory, be automated are left to humans because they're relatively small tasks and not worth automating with a custom machine. Humanoids could fill that gap.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#314

Post by tgsovlerkhgsel »

UebVar wrote: post #249
floxy wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I’m not even convinced humanoid robots are going to pan out in general. I want one personally, so it can rake the leaves, mow the lawn, tend the garden, do the laundry and dishes, replace the roof, etc., when I'm old. But they should also be used to pick up litter along the highway, paint over graffiti, etc..

I feel like the humanoid form is getting in the way for that, and that a "Spot" like design with a hand on top is better suited for that. Also i think laundry and dishes are already 95% automated since about 50 years.

It'd almost certainly need at least two hands, and I'm sure there are a lot of people who would pay to automate the remaining 5% of the dishes.

And the two-handed spot will have a hard time grabbing something under the sofa.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#315

Post by balgg »

jFriedensreich wrote: post #35

No product had such a fast transition from novelty to "omg i never want to interact with a human again". I feel about 100% less stressed and happier using a waymo or riding motorbike or bicycle next to a waymo than with human drivers. I hope this next phase will bring availability and prices down. We need this in europe.

>We need this in europe.

I'm not against automated driving at all, but in my experience we actually don't have that much use for stuff like this in most (big) European cities, since almost all of them have good public transport options already. I think trams especially fill the hole of "low-friction transport in a city" perfectly. I think having less vehicles on the road is a benefit to us all, but I understand some cities are not as tightly packed for public transport to work that well.

Either way, less human drivers is better.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#316

Post by seanmcdirmid »

fc417fc802 wrote: post #311
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "free parking" isn't really free, you just have land that is really cheap devoted to it. And where it isn't...well, American housing prices and rents are increased to pay for them. Street parking matters in almost every neighborhood in Seattle now...since parking on its own is expensive, and you will also have to pay for a few busted windows on your car for the pleasure of free street parking. The highways are he…

> And where it isn't...well, American housing prices and rents are increased to pay for them. The driver of housing cost in US cities is lack of supply. Parking spaces are a drop in the bucket versus what is missing. The root cause is zoning laws; particularly the height restrictions as they currently stand.

> Parking spaces are a drop in the bucket versus what is missing.

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/seattle-parking-spot-sells-...

That was 2022, $56k is probably about 10% of a one or two bedroom condo price.

> The root cause is zoning laws; particularly the height restrictions as they currently stand.

Tokyo is, as I understand it, the libertarian ideal for a city that doesn't let zoning get in the way of a good time, and parking space prices are still expensive there:

> Monthly rental rates for spots in the 23 Wards range from ¥30,000 to over ¥80,000, which reflects high underlying property value.

That's $200 to $500 a month.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#317

Post by pengaru »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #146
doctorpangloss wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a little kid is inevitably going to get killed by a waymo. institutional finance is america's most powerful lobbyist. in the sense of the fund managers, the little RIAs, the grandmas holding SPY. they ARE the voters. so to me, aside from making money, making money this way, for a lot of people, protects them from the political grandstanding and their fast demise in their absence.

> a little kid is inevitably going to get killed by a waymo. And it will be 100% the kids fault, but the headlines will look terrible. Kids can be naive and reckless, and the result makes them look downright suicidal with the things they do. They will dart into traffic, and even if the Waymo has single-digit millisecond reaction times, people will still blame the Waymo.

> And it will be 100% the kids fault, but the headlines will look terrible.

I wouldn't be so certain on the fault front. I share the SF streets with Waymos on the daily, and they are extremely far from perfect drivers.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#318

Post by rangestransform »

dmoy wrote: post #119
jFriedensreich wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't live in Berlin, but even if: have you ever taken public transport in less mainstream lines? Apart from nothing working and connections taking forever and operations stopping at night, horrible signage that lets you stress even more, you sit next to human excrements, hooligans coming from football games, nazis wanting to beat you up, stink, rude music and beggers. I sometimes miss it for sentimental value, but…

Is there really that much poop on Berlin public transit? Seattle has some of the highest per capital homeless in the US, and a dearth of public toilets, and yet there's not that much poop on our public transit. I am also skeptical that y'all's violent crime rate is higher than ours. Granted I haven't taken Berlin public transit in 20 yrs, so I don't know.

I’d put Berlin ubahn halfway between nyc and japan in terms of cleanliness and orderly behavior, the bigger problem is that there’s no ac in the summer

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#319

Post by guiomie »

belter wrote: post #226
guiomie wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am I in the Tesla stock subreddit? "Scaling that beyond a few mapped US suburbs into Europe is a totally different problem." If you consider SF and LA suburbs, than Europe is a suburb.

Would you address my other technical comments on what Waymo really is?

Im not because the statement you wrote is too generic, « not solving driving » … solving driving could mean many different things. It’s the classic rage bait one liners you see on Reddit from Tesla bag holders. It’s funny because everything you’ve described IS solving « driving » from my perspective. I sit in the back and go read hacker news without having to drive.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#320

Post by spwa4 »

mschuster91 wrote: post #114
kccqzy wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A car does not cost $350 and $500 per month. If it does, it’s a status symbol, not merely a tool to get from A to B, and therefore it is unfair to compare it against taxi rides. There’s nothing wrong with wanting a nicer more luxurious car for yourself. But it’s just ingenious to compare that against taxis with beaten-up and spartan but reliable cars.

> A car does not cost $350 and $500 per month. Insurance alone can be 100€ a month (and more so for younger drivers). At a very modest 5 liters / 100km and a one way route of 20 km you're at 800km a month / 40 liters of gas => 1.80€ a liter => 72€ in fuel. Your average car then has 20 ct/km for maintenance costs (inspections, spare parts, oil changes, tires, workshop time), so another 160€ a month - and more if it is…

> Cars are expensive once you actually include replacement/depreciation and maintenance costs.

Yep, that describes cars. High up front cost that barely goes up when you need more done (meaning: family of 5? Car beats even the bus fare for a 3km ride to school). In trade for independence, cheap groceries, cheaper travel (at least in opportunity cost), cheap days out with the family, bigger house is realistic, ability to go work in not so well connected places (I'm a consultant), capacity to actually get heavy things, collect people, not waiting/dragging things around in cold/rain/...

Oh and these DON'T add up. Bring the kids to school AND drive to work AND get groceries by car? You don't pay 3 times like you do with any other means of transport, you pay 1.2 times what you pay when doing only one.

With 2 people in the car it easily matches public transport costs if you use it enough. Oh and even by yourself it's like half taxi/uber fares, a third or less of waymo fares (though at least those don't charge per person).

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