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What a year of solar and batteries saved us in 2025

scotthelme.co.uk

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Re: What a year of solar and batteries saved us in 2025

#311
post #39
post #12

Battery prices are getting really low, if you're willing to do some DIY. Just received a 15kWh battery from China. A 'Humsienk'. Combined it with a GroWatt SPA3000TL-BL inverter. Total price, 1600 euros. So close to the magical 100 euros per kWh. Driving it with some interesting combinations of Raspberry PI's and serial interfaces and custom written Go code, but it works... :)

> Battery prices are getting really low, if you're willing to do some DIY. Willing and allowed. In some countries it can only be done by certified electricians.

I paid an electrician one hours work to actually connect my inverter to my main 200A panel, and he even got the required building permit required.

Re: What a year of solar and batteries saved us in 2025

#312
post #293
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of those things matter when your solar array is 4.5 kW and you have a standard 150A/200A grid in.... Like I said, they basically are not sold to scale like a normal household uses electricity. EDIT: What the heck is in-rush and backfeed? Are you talking about AC input to charge the batteries? The 18k is 50A @ 240VAC (12kW) fyi. Also, why does the charge rate even matter there? For the AC output its also 12 kW...…

Inrush is exactly what it says it is, it's inrush current. When you have a sudden surge on something, that's inrush. Lots of appliances in your home have a large inrush, much larger than the breaker they're on. Inrush happens faster than a breaker trips, which doesn't matter when you're on the grid and the inrush is lower than your mainbreaker, it matters when you have an inverter in the way with a passthrough limit…

> Inrush is exactly what it says it is, it's inrush current

These are not terms commonly used in the industry, thanks for the clarification.

> Lots of appliances in your home have a large inrush, much larger than the breaker they're on.

And inverters are designed to compensate for short term surges too fyi. The 18k provides 65A for a few seconds as an example.

> well, hell, how the hell you gonna charge ~40kwh of battery with solar array that nominally produces 20kwh a day on its best day, assuming all conditions are perfect?

Because you can't and don't need to...you should be asking the author of the original post, because they do what pretty much every other grid tied system which is that you pass through the power from the grid.

> Backfeed is what the inverter can push out from the battery to the home.

https://www.wartsila.com/encyclopedia/term/backfeeding huh?

> It's the size of the tube coming from the gallons of water reservoir. EG4 18k has a tiny tube, no matter how much battery you put on it.

1. The 18k can push 50A on each leg and most residential are sized at 150a or 200A, which are ridiculously oversized, so at most, even with two EVs and a 4 ton AC running in Texas, I max out at 150A. I can put 3 18k's in parallel if I really want to and its STILL cheaper than a powerwall battery/inverter combo.

2. There is no reason to have a "pipe" so large that it only is used for less than 5% of the overall runtime. This is why the powerwall setup doesnt make any sense.

Re: What a year of solar and batteries saved us in 2025

#313

The rooftop solar game in Texas is strongly into scam territory. Most homes I see with panels on the roof are two story homes where you have a negligible amount of area to work with relative to interior space. There was a point where you'd have to deal with a door-to-door salesman approximately every 48h for an entire summer. The most realistic residential installation I've seen was firmly on the ground at a ~2 acre…

So people with these small installs are only saving $500 a year and not $1000?

I’ll take free $500 all day long please.

Re: What a year of solar and batteries saved us in 2025

#314
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and that's why I have none.

Not everyone lives in an area where they can afford not to have one, especially with climates changing and temperatures hitting higher/lower extremes.

It all comes down to building techniques, insulation, airtightness, eliminating thermal bridges, &c. There are also many low tech solutions for heating/cooling, such as air/air heat exchanger couples with ground/water or ground/air heat exchanger at a fraction of the price and a fraction of the maintenance.

Of course the average american living in a mcmansion which wouldn't pass regulations in 1992 Poland cannot use such solutions, but really it isn't a problem of climate, you'll find passive houses from africa to norway and everywhere in between, most of them without heat pumps

Re: What a year of solar and batteries saved us in 2025

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Residential solar with batteries greatly aids the grid and reduces costs for the entire system. > The metals do build those batteries do not exist. Or put in a worse way, the mines do not exist. Lithium and sodium, the two most promising battery metals, are not usually mined, though in Australia I hear there is mining. It's more of a brine process. All across the US, frackers are finding that all that water they are…

I don't agree. Lithium and Copper are mined and given electrification scenarios there is a projected supply deficit: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook... Those prices are outdated now since practically all metals are surging. There has indeed been great growth in battery capacity but it's as I said nowhere near able to supply a country like Sweden during the winter. It is off by orders of m…

What gives you that impression? Unless you're looking at the pre-9/11 grid powered by Enron™, rolling blackouts aren't a big deal in California. I think since 2001 there was a single 2 day event limited to certain regions, I don't know anyone personally who lost electricity due to rolling blackouts.

The CA grid has also scaled up battery storage surprisingly quickly. A few years ago it was in the single digit mWh, not really a meaningful fraction of the grid. Now it's measured in gigawatt-hours.

Re: What a year of solar and batteries saved us in 2025

#316
post #267

The payback calculation doesn't consider time value of money. They are paying down £40K today but the savings are realized over years in the future. But they implicitly assumed the discount rate on those savings to be 0.

Yes, if you want to be super precise you have to factor in both the time value of money on one hand and inflation & energy bill increases on the other.

But very often these will roughly cancel each other out.

Re: What a year of solar and batteries saved us in 2025

#317
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I installed a 16.5kWp ground-mount array a month ago. I live in the US Northeast, in a mountainous location that means we get late sunrises and early sunsets. Nevertheless, based on my one month of data, it looks like we can generate all the power we need for our household on a sunny winter day, excluding electric vehicles. Even on overcast days, we can sometimes offset a significant portion of our usage. My locale d…

Here in Europe, we got more than a month's worth of foggy, cloudy weather (something that looks like will keep being a thing), which is something I became painfully aware of as an owner of a solar setup. No amount of battery banks can tide over such a long stretch. By the way, let me ask you - considering your location, you must be getting a lot of snow, how do you deal with it, is it a problem? Panels are quite hard…

I do indeed get a lot of snow. In January and February it snows roughly once every two days, although usually in small amounts.

Fortunately I have a ground mount. The bottom row is roughly at waist height. I can (and have been) sweeping the panels off with a large push broom. Because my array is so large, I can only reach the bottom half of the array. But this usually is enough. When the panel starts to generate power, it also tends to heat up; the snow on the top half then often slides off on its own.

I might invest in a longer broom. It is not uncommon for people here to own “snow rakes” to remove large snow loads from their roofs. These usually have a rubberized “rake” with a very long aluminum handle. Or the novelty of this might wear off and I’ll just let the panel do its own thing. It is pitched rather steeply (close to 45°) and based on my observations of my neighbors, panels tend to shed the snow on their own eventually.

Re: What a year of solar and batteries saved us in 2025

#318
post #312
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inrush is exactly what it says it is, it's inrush current. When you have a sudden surge on something, that's inrush. Lots of appliances in your home have a large inrush, much larger than the breaker they're on. Inrush happens faster than a breaker trips, which doesn't matter when you're on the grid and the inrush is lower than your mainbreaker, it matters when you have an inverter in the way with a passthrough limit…

> Inrush is exactly what it says it is, it's inrush current These are not terms commonly used in the industry, thanks for the clarification. > Lots of appliances in your home have a large inrush, much larger than the breaker they're on. And inverters are designed to compensate for short term surges too fyi. The 18k provides 65A for a few seconds as an example. > well, hell, how the hell you gonna charge ~40kwh of bat…

>These are not terms commonly used in the industry, thanks for the clarification.

It's such an industry term that it's literally a named feature on multimeters.

>The 18k provides 65A for a few seconds as an example.

Yes, you'll see I gave you that spec in the opening comment. It's not a good spec for a whole home hybrid inverter.

>the 18k can push 50A on each leg and most residential are sized at 150a or 200A

That's not how you read a spec sheet for 240v device. A home service is 200 amp, at 240v. That's 48kw potential. 12k is 12k regardless of whether that's (120v * 50a) + (120v * 50a) or (240v * 50a). The legs aren't cumulative. You're implying the standing load capacity is somehow higher than its inrush capacity. It would need to be a 24kw (on the ac side, all of the janky chinese rebrand inverters all list their DC input to try to make themselves seem bigger) inverter to do what you're implying.

(50a * 120v) + (50a * 120v) = 12kw

A small home with a smaller 150 amp service is (150a * 240v), 36kw.

Edit: screw it, I'll address this as well -

>There is no reason to have a "pipe" so large that it only is used for less than 5% of the overall runtime. This is why the powerwall setup doesnt make any sense.

There sure is! The whole point is to offset usage. 50 amp standing load capacity means you can only ever offset 50 amps of usage at one time. Sure, most homes don't hold anything higher than that for long but I've seen plenty of homes hold over 20kw for a bit if they have pool pumps, well pumps, pool heaters, or any number of things going on. Any time the home draws more than 12kw instantaneously you'd be getting charged peak rates, which could be avoided with a larger standing load capacity. In addition, if you're in a municipality with a 'demand' rate you could enter in to a different billing rate any time you go over a certain amperage, meaning that ability to offset more of that in that instance, even just for an inrush, could make an even larger difference on your bill.

Look man, I run an $800 chinese inverter, and my batteries are MuRatas I harvested from decommissioned Sonnen cabinets that I rewired with chinese BMSes. The Powerwall 3 is a really good product and the pricing is great compared to comparable non-diy consumer grade products. The EG4 is not a good comparison point because it has nowhere near the spec or capability. You would need 3 EG4 18ks to have the inrush capability of a single Powerwall 3. Battery capacity (volume) is not the sole determining factor in value. This isn't even relevant but just as an aside, the EG4 isn't even a good value for the DIY scene, and has functionally the same support as rebranded drop shipped Chinese inverters.

Re: What a year of solar and batteries saved us in 2025

#319
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, averages don't work well when talking about single units without any further details. How many sq/ft is the house? Is it filled with windows facing south? Are they firing a continuous laser beam at the moon? 2-3x usage is actually pretty typical when looking at a single house when comparing to average. It's when you start getting close to an order of mag difference that you're an outlier.

How did you know about my laser?!

I saw your xkcd history...

Re: What a year of solar and batteries saved us in 2025

#320
post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean? It did pan out for Tesla. Faking a single demo granted them 75% more ZEV emissions credit government subsidys [1]. That increased their profits by hundreds of millions of dollars. All they had to do was go on stage and “swap” a battery without any clear video of the process and never “demonstrate” it ever again. This is a company known for faking prominent demos like the FSD demo (where it crashed i…

Battery swap was and remains really risky for anyone doing it. You're taking a $10k asset, and swapping it for another $10k asset of unknown provenance. Does anyone really want to be in a situation where they purchase a new Tesla with a brand new, max-range battery pack, then swap it once on a road trip and get one that's been used for 300k miles and is at 75% of original capacity?

Eh?

In some mysterious future where swapping EV batteries during a road trip is a normal activity, then the battery packs won't be living in a vacuum -- their status can be known. Whether it is known by reading the pack's own electronics, by status reports from connected vehicles and charging stations, by direct measurement, or by some combination of these things: The status is knowable. It doesn't have to be a big ball of mystery.

How much value the marketplace finds in this health status is a different question. And this question is one that we cannot yet know the answer to -- this is not a reality that we presently live in.

We can speculate about how that potential future may be shaped, but that kind of speculation is kind of meritless since that version of the future may never actually happen (and at the present, it sure does seem very unlikely to happen any time soon).

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