The next two years of software engineering • Hacker News Board

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#311

Post by throwaway920102 » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 5:57 PM UTC

chankstein38 wrote: post #224

maciejzj wrote: post #143

TBH, it all feels like a huge gamble at this point. Neither skills, education, institutional ties, nor current employment can guarantee a stable foundation for life. This hits harder depending on how much money, social capital, or debt you accumulated before this volatility began. If you’ve paid off your debts, bought a house, and stabilized your family life, you’re gambling with how comfortable the coming years will…

Amen. It's hard to live with hope right now at all. Programmer or otherwise we're constantly told we're all going to be replaced and the economy is a mess (US). Definitely a depressing time to be alive.

I think what we're missing is certainty, not hope. You used to have more certainty that if you checked all the correct boxes your financial future would be guaranteed. Hope for the future is sort of separate and the most optimistic person could hold on to hope even now, and the most pessimistic person could lack hope even graduating with a CS degree in 2015.

You can have hope even if a positive outcome isn't guaranteed. In fact that is when hope is the most valuable (and maybe also difficult to find).

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#312

Post by thtmnisamnstr » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 6:03 PM UTC

seberino wrote: post #238

chankstein38 wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amen. It's hard to live with hope right now at all. Programmer or otherwise we're constantly told we're all going to be replaced and the economy is a mess (US). Definitely a depressing time to be alive.

Not sure that is warranted. AI will create exciting changes to society for the better. These times are uncertain but certainly not depressing .

Uncertainty is frequently a contributor to depression. Uncertainty is one of the most reliable stress triggers, which, over prolonged periods of time, especially when paired with low perceived control, is a direct path to increased depression. So if something is uncertain, it is often depressing as well.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#313

Post by j_w » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 6:12 PM UTC

> Demonstrate that one junior plus AI can match a small team’s output.

I don't understand the take that a junior with AI is able to replace a small team. Maybe a horribly performing small team? Even then, wouldn't it just be logical to outfit the small team with AI and then have a small team of small teams?

The alleged increased AI output of developers has yet to be realized. Individuals perceive themselves as having greatly increased output, but the market has not yet demonstrated that with more products (or competitors to existing products) and/or improved products.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#314

Post by panopticon » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 6:15 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #207

afro88 wrote: post #177

> The bottom line: Junior developer hiring could collapse as AI automates entry-level tasks If AI automated entry-level tasks from today, that just means "entry-level" means something different now. It doesn't mean entry-level ceases to exist. Entey-level as we know it, but not entry-level in general.

Entry level jobs have been in decline for years though. I used to work on teams which were 50% entry level. Then just one. Then all senior teams became the norm. This all happened after I became senior but before AI came along.

Definitely. Our hiring pipeline seized up in 2022 and we've been disproportionately hiring senior+ roles since, and many teams are senior heavy.

I think AI is a convenient scapegoat for other macro trends.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#315

Post by cyberpunk » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC

streetcat1 wrote: post #49

For some reason miss two important points: 1) The AI code maintainence question - who would maintain the AI generated code 2) The true cost of AI. Once the VC/PE money runs out and companies charge the full cost, what would happen to vibe coding at that point ?

AI assists the maintenance. A lot of posts seem to think like once the code is committed the AI’s what, just go away? If you can write a test for a bug, likely it can be either fully or partially fixed by an ai even today.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#316

Post by Valord » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC

babblingfish wrote: post #20

My experience hasn't been LLMs automate coding, just speeds it up. It's like I know what I want the solution to be and I'll describe it to the LLM, usually for specific code blocks at a time, and then build it up block-by-block. When I read hacker news people are talking like it's doing much more than that. It doesn't feel like an automation tool to me at all. It just helps me do what I was gonna do anyways, but with…

This is how I use it for work-production code.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#317

Post by lightning19 » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 6:34 PM UTC

noufalibrahim wrote: post #69

babblingfish wrote: post #20

My experience hasn't been LLMs automate coding, just speeds it up. It's like I know what I want the solution to be and I'll describe it to the LLM, usually for specific code blocks at a time, and then build it up block-by-block. When I read hacker news people are talking like it's doing much more than that. It doesn't feel like an automation tool to me at all. It just helps me do what I was gonna do anyways, but with…

I'm somewhere in between myself. Before LLMs, I used to block a few sites that distracted me by adding entries in /etc/hosts file to mapping them to 127.0.0.1 on my work machine. I also made the file immutable so that it would take a few steps for me to unblock the sites. The next step was for me to write a cron job that would reapply the chattr +1 and rewrite the file once in 5 minutes. Sort of an enforcer. I used C…

Interesting, I did something similar but with browser policies on my PC although I just got the LLM to write the json

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#318

Post by falloutx » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC

skeeter2020 wrote: post #277

falloutx wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The whole story about vibecoding and LLMs replacing engineers has become a huge distraction Because the first thing that comes from individual speed up is not engineers making more money but there being less engineers, How much less is the question? Would they be satisfied with 10%, 50% or may be 99%?

anecdotal at best but I have directly heard CTOs - and hear noise beyond my immediate bubble - talk about 10x improvements with a straight face. Seems ridiculous to me, and even if the coding gets 10x easier the act of defining & solving problems doesn't #nosilverbullet

It doesnt even have to work, it just need to show execs that it can be used to cut costs by firing employees.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#319

Post by smeeagain2 » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 6:46 PM UTC

cheema33 wrote: post #301

smeeagain2 wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I don't have a college degree either. I am about 50. I have never been unemployed and have had high paying software dev jobs my entire adult life. Your claim that the lack of degree is the only thing holding you back is very much incorrect. I suspect the problem is elsewhere and you are unwilling or uncomfortable to discuss it.

[flagged]

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#320

Post by tenacious_tuna » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 6:59 PM UTC

afro88 wrote: post #177

> The bottom line: Junior developer hiring could collapse as AI automates entry-level tasks If AI automated entry-level tasks from today, that just means "entry-level" means something different now. It doesn't mean entry-level ceases to exist. Entey-level as we know it, but not entry-level in general.

It's not just juniors. One of my partners carries a PhD in epidemiology and bimolecular science; they've been job searching for eight months with no bites, just silence. A friend of mine is a chemical engineering PhD, she's been searching for a year and just had her first interview.

I have eight years of software engineering experience but am only one rung up from the bottom of our SWE ladder, and we don't even hire the bottom rung anymore at my org. Seems like there's crushing pressure from above to limit hiring at every stage.